Savings account: Russians noticeably reduced spending at the beginning of the year
Russians started the year with savings — in 2025, consumption grew slowly every month even against the background of high inflation, but in 2026 the trend reversed. The reduction in spending in January, in particular, is due to the fact that citizens tried to make large purchases before adjusting VAT. Also, people almost do not approve loans — less than 20% of applications are approved. And in general, due to uncertainty, the population prefers to save rather than spend. If the trend continues, it may slow down GDP growth. How the cooling of demand will turn out, whether prices will decrease and why people will not save on basic goods — in the Izvestia article.
How Russians' spending has changed in 2026
Russians significantly reduced their spending in early 2026. In January, household consumption dropped significantly, according to the "Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends" of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP), which was studied by Izvestia.
The authors of the document explained that such a decline goes beyond the "pendulum fluctuations". In addition, it turned out to be higher than the growth in the previous few months.
In the II–IV quarters of last year, household consumption increased slowly, despite the high key rate (the Central Bank kept it at 21% until June 2025). Then, on average, the indicator increased by 0.2–0.5% per month. However, in January, this trend reversed — purchases by citizens decreased by 1.9%. At the same time, seasonality in calculations has been eliminated, the article clarified.
According to Izvestia, demand has been growing for almost the entire year 2025, and there has never been such a drop in any month as in 2026.
According to the CMACP, sales of non-food products (for example, appliances and household chemicals) decreased the most, as well as products that rose in price due to the effect of "postponing purchases" from January to December. This could have been triggered by the expected VAT change. Many Russians sought to make purchases in advance, before the price increase.
In addition, the consumption of services has also dropped. Over the past 10 years, Russians have spent much more on them, but they have bought less non-food products, said Linda Ryzhykh, associate professor of Management at the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg. This is the only major category of spending by citizens, which is constantly increasing. She's going down now, too. They most often purchase household and personal services (for example, cleaning), as well as services in the field of medicine, catering (delivery) and tours, she noted.
People also started spending less on clothes, shoes, and more expensive purchases, including cars. This is due to prices: the rise in price of such categories increases their weight in the cost structure even with relatively stable or restrained consumption, explained Linda Ryzhykh. By the way, as for cars, the car market was additionally warmed up by an increase in recycling, said Ahmed Yusupov, an economist and partner at the Goldman Energy communications agency.
Estimates of consumer activity from CMAKP and Rosstat differ due to the specifics of the methodology: they take into account individual segments in different ways, in particular catering.
According to Rosstat, demand continued to grow in January, but the pace slowed significantly, the Ministry of Energy told Izvestia. They added: According to Rosstat, the total turnover of retail trade, catering and paid services increased by 1.9% year-on-year against 4.1% a month earlier. At the same time, retail almost stopped growing (+0.7% after +3.9%), and paid services also slowed down. The only segment with acceleration was catering, which partially smoothed out the overall dynamics. The agency did not specify the data on non-food products.
Why is consumption falling
The drop in consumption is expressed primarily in a decrease in the number of purchases and a decrease in the average receipt. Last year, Russians began to purchase fewer goods, mostly non-food items, which are the easiest to save money on by postponing purchases until better times, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. However, there was no such recession as in 2026.
The main reason was high inflation. In March last year, the price increase was above 10.3%. In response, the Central Bank did not reduce the key rate and kept it at a record high of 21% for six months. In the second quarter and at the beginning of the third in 2025, inflation continued to affect the consumer market, she noted.
Demand starts to grow at low rates. With a high key rate, the population puts their spare money on deposits at high interest rates, the expert added. At the last meeting, the regulator lowered the rate to 15%, but this is still a high level, business surveys show. The price increase at the end of March reached almost 6%, according to Rosstat data.
In addition, loans remain unavailable for many people, because banks often do not approve loans. Thus, according to the NBKI, in February, financial organizations rejected 82% of applications for retail loans — consumer loans, car loans, mortgages. This is almost 5 percentage points more than a year earlier.
In addition, people are starting to save in conditions of uncertainty, postponing purchases until better times, said financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. As a result, they become more careful in spending.
How does a decrease in consumption affect the Russian economy
A decrease in consumption, one of the key drivers of GDP, can slow down the economy. In 2026, its growth is unlikely to exceed 1.5%, according to Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. It was the demand from the population that kept the economy from stagnating: in 2025, the catering and hotel sectors grew by 8%, retail by 2.5%, and e-commerce increased especially rapidly.
Weakening demand is already affecting inflation, the expert continued. Producers, primarily of non-food products, are forced to keep prices down. Their growth is slowing down, but they are hampered by rising fuel prices and logistics.
The situation is different in the product segment. Food is subject to a preferential VAT of 10%, and people will not give up basic goods even with rising prices, Natalia Milchakova is sure. According to her, "shrinkflation" is likely to increase: buyers will charge less, and manufacturers will reduce the volume of packaging while maintaining the same price.
To restore demand, income growth is needed across the economy, not just in individual industries, such as manufacturing, the analyst believes. Additionally, the fiscal burden on businesses should be reduced and industries focused on the domestic market and import substitution should be supported, such as food enterprises, clothing, footwear, and affordable equipment. Another factor is the gradual decline of the key. According to the Central Bank's forecast, the average rate in 2026 will be 13.5–14.5%.
In the second half of 2026, demand is likely to begin to recover, amid rising incomes and slowing inflation, Natalia Milchakova believes. The government expects real incomes to increase by 4.8% this year, and inflation to rise by about 4%.
The main conditions are a reduction in the rate and a steady increase in wages, agreed economist Ahmed Yusupov. Revenue dynamics are questionable: their growth may slow down with a decrease in company profits, he believes. If exports recover, businesses will be able to maintain their payroll. Otherwise, according to him, the recovery in demand will be weak, and GDP growth will be closer to 0.5%. The Ministry of Energy expects the economy to grow by 1.9% this year. However, in April, according to analysts, the forecast may be revised.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
