On the crest of an anomaly: Is the world facing a new Super El Nino
The earth is entering a period of increased climatic instability, and El Nino may become one of the key factors in the coming years. According to updated data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the probability of its formation in the period from June to August 2026 is estimated at about 80%. Most climate models agree that the upcoming episode will be at least moderate in intensity, but a strong El Nino scenario is also possible. What this means for the global climate, how reliable such forecasts are, and whether the phenomenon will affect Russia are described in the Izvestia article.
How El Nino affects the planet
Every time scientists warn of a possible strong El Nino, an abnormal climatic phenomenon associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, the events of 1877-1878 are inevitably recalled. That El Nino is considered one of the most powerful in the history of observations and is often cited as an example of how severe the effects of climate change can be.
According to Alexey Eliseev, the El Nino of the late 19th century was indeed accompanied by an exceptionally strong temperature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
— After that, droughts occurred in a number of regions of the world, and taking into account the historical context, famine even developed in some places. That is why this event is often regarded as one of the most serious in terms of consequences," the scientist notes.
However, the main question today is how global warming affects the development of El Nino. Science does not have a definite answer yet.
According to Alexey Eliseev, there are several competing mechanisms at once. One of them is related to atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is caused by an area of particularly warm waters in the region of Indonesia. Under conditions of global warming, this region may warm up even more, which can make atmospheric circulation more stable and, conversely, hinder the development of El Nino.
— At the same time, there is an opposite scenario. Increased circulation can lead to increased instability, which means more frequent or more intense episodes of El Nino. Different models give different results, so it's premature to talk about what El Nino will be like in the second half of the 21st century," Eliseev emphasizes.
Nevertheless, most climatologists agree on one thing: even if global warming does not directly increase the likelihood of El Nino, it can exacerbate the effects of this phenomenon. Higher atmospheric temperatures mean more intense heat waves, heavier rainfall, and more severe droughts. Therefore, each new episode of El Nino is now considered not only as a natural climatic fluctuation, but also as an additional risk factor in an already changing climate.
What the forecasts say
According to forecasts of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in the period from June to August 2026, the probability of El Nino formation is very high and is about 80%. And with a probability of more than 90%, it can persist at least until November. Models show that a moderate El Nino scenario is most likely, but some calculations do not exclude a high intensity, up to the so-called super El Nino.
As Alexander Osadchiev, an oceanologist, Doctor of Physico-mathematical Sciences, a leading researcher at the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes in his Telegram channel, El Nino is triggered by relatively small changes in ocean circulation, which then lead to large-scale consequences for the atmosphere.
"During the El Nino phase, a weakening of the wind over the equatorial and tropical Pacific Ocean triggers a chain of events in the ocean and atmosphere that leads to heavy precipitation in Peru, the southern United States and Kenya, and, conversely, brings drought to Brazil, India, Indonesia and Australia," he writes.
According to the scientist, El Nino events occur irregularly — at intervals of two to seven years and last from nine months to two years. After their completion, the climate system often goes into the opposite phase — La Niña, which redistributes precipitation according to a different scheme.
Professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Head of the Laboratory of Climate Theory at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences Alexey Eliseev, in an interview with Izvestia, explains that the interpretation of forecasts in the case of El Nino requires caution. One of the key difficulties remains the so-called "spring predictability barrier", which reduces the accuracy of models made before the middle of spring.
— Now this barrier has been overcome, and a warm anomaly has already formed in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Therefore, judging by the current data, the change will really happen, and it is quite possible that El Nino will be very strong," the expert notes.
At the same time, the scientist emphasizes the seasonal nature of the phenomenon, its maximum phase usually occurs at the end of the year. In the summer, according to him, we are talking only about the initial stage of the process, and the exact consequences for individual regions, including Russia, are still the subject of further research.
Will El Nino Reach Russia
For Russia, the possible development of El Nino is unlikely to cause as significant climatic consequences as for the countries of America or Asia. According to Yeliseyev, the available observations do not allow us to talk about the existence of a stable relationship between this phenomenon and weather conditions in most of the country.
— According to observations of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the main effect of El Nino is manifested in the subtropics, where droughts often develop. These are the southern United States, Latin America, and China," the expert clarifies.
The only exception is the south of the Far East, which is located on the periphery of the Asian monsoon system. However, even there, the impact of the phenomenon, according to experts, remains relatively weak.
— It is important to note that all these conclusions are based on observations of relatively moderate events. If stronger El Nino events occur in the future, effects that are simply unknown may appear," Eliseev emphasizes.
Even if the direct impact on the Russian climate turns out to be limited, the country may feel the consequences indirectly through the global economy. Droughts in large agricultural regions, crop disruptions, and changes in food markets can affect prices and trade flows far beyond the territories directly affected by the climate anomaly.
However, it is still premature to talk about the need for special adaptation measures for Russia. According to the expert, El Nino is a natural climatic process that has repeatedly occurred in the past, and the most vulnerable regions of the world have already developed certain mechanisms for adapting to its consequences.
What can be done now
Although it is impossible to prevent El Nino, experts emphasize that many of its consequences can be mitigated through timely preparation. According to Alexey Eliseev, in the case of droughts, the main task is not to avoid them completely, but to minimize the damage.
— It is important to maintain ecosystems, as droughts are often associated with the growth of wildfires. Therefore, fire services and forest guards should be on high alert," the expert explains.
According to the WMO and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), severe episodes of El Nino often lead to lower yields in certain regions of the world. In such circumstances, the flexibility of food systems plays an important role: the creation of reserves, the diversification of supplies and the redistribution of agricultural products between regions facing shortages.
Heat waves, which often accompany periods of drought, remain another serious risk. In recent decades, many countries have begun to create early warning systems for the population, open special cooled public spaces and adjust the work of medical services during periods of extreme temperatures.
— In recent decades, people have already learned to adapt to such phenomena. For example, in France, the first major heat wave led to the deaths of more than 10,000 people, but subsequent waves already had lesser consequences because adaptation measures were developed," adds Eliseev.
According to experts, it is the readiness of health systems, response services and authorities that is becoming one of the main factors determining the scale of the consequences of climatic anomalies.
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