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Summer is under threat: weather forecasters told about abnormal heat, drought and fires
According to preliminary weather forecasters, summer is expected to be consistently hot with noticeable regional differences and possible temperature anomalies. Experts predict a gradual increase in heat in June, a peak in high temperatures in July, and only a gradual decrease in heat in August. Deviations from the climatic norm are possible in some regions, as well as the risks of drought and wildfires. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
General weather forecast for summer 2026
The beginning of summer in the largest cities of the European part of Russia is usually accompanied by a gradual increase in temperature and a transition to more stable warm weather. This year, as Anatoly Tsygankov, head of the Crisis Management Department at the Hydrometeorological Center, explained to Izvestia, the formation of high-risk zones associated with the influx of hot air masses from the south is already observed in May.
"Hot air masses are coming from Iran, which leads to an abnormal increase in temperatures in a number of regions — Astrakhan, Volgograd, Voronezh, Moscow, Yekaterinburg and the Volga region. If this trend continues, the process will intensify," Tsygankov said.
At the same time, the expert stressed that, according to long-term observations, the peak of summer warming traditionally falls in the middle of July. It is during this period that the highest temperatures are usually recorded.
"The warmest period is usually observed from July 16 to July 23, when persistently high temperatures are set. So, the average monthly temperature in July in Moscow is +19.7 degrees. August is already closer to June: the average air temperature this month is +17.6 degrees," the forecaster noted.
According to him, this dynamic is due to astronomical factors. The maximum warming of the air is associated with the longest day of the year, the Summer Solstice on June 22. After this date, thermal inertia persists, due to which the accumulated heat continues to be retained, and then gradually decreases.
Thus, July remains the most stable and warm month, while August shows a gradual decrease in temperatures, especially towards the end of the month. At the same time, the meteorologist noted that the middle of summer is characterized not only by maximum warming, but also by increased humidity.
"In July, about 84 mm of precipitation falls in the capital on average, while in June this figure is 77 mm, so July can be called the wettest month, when there are not only hot weather, but also thunderstorms, showers and high humidity," he said.
What will the weather be like in Moscow and St. Petersburg in summer?
Weather conditions in Moscow and St. Petersburg may differ markedly due to the influence of various climatic factors, including the proximity of the Baltic Sea in the case of the Northern Capital.
"In Moscow, the average temperature in June is +17.3 degrees. During the month, it gradually rises from about +15.8 degrees at the beginning to +18.9 degrees by the end, that is, on June 30 it turns out to be almost 3 degrees warmer than on June 1," the meteorologist noted.
He explained that such calculations are based on the climatic norm, which is an average of the last 30 years, which allows us to determine typical temperature values and the dynamics of their changes during the month.
In St. Petersburg, summer usually develops more cautiously: due to the influence of sea air and frequent cyclones, temperatures rise more slowly, and the weather is more changeable. June is often accompanied by cool days, wind and precipitation, although there is also a gradual warming towards the middle and end of the month.
According to the Yandex.Weather", in June, the air temperature in Moscow and the Moscow region will range from +19...+24 degrees. In July, a more stable heat is expected: from +23 to +25 degrees. At the same time, July may become the rainiest month: according to preliminary forecasts, about 13 rainy days are expected. In August, temperature fluctuations will remain within +20...+23 degrees.
In St. Petersburg, according to the preliminary forecast of Yandex.Weather conditions", the summer will be cooler. The daytime temperature in June will be +16...+20 degrees. In July, warming is expected — from +20 to +23 degrees. In August, the temperature will range from +17 to +21 degrees.
Forecast by regions of Russia for June, July, August
According to the preliminary seasonal forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center, summer in Russia is expected to be heterogeneous: in some regions, deviations towards warmer weather are possible, in others the temperature background will remain close to the climatic norm or will be lower than last year's values.
Positive temperature anomalies (above the norm by about +1 degree or more) may affect a significant part of the European territory of the country, as well as certain areas of Siberia and the Far East.
In June, excess of the climatic norm is most likely in Central Russia and the Black Earth region, including Moscow, Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Tula, Kursk and Belgorod, as well as in the regions of the Volga region, the south of the country, the Urals and the North Caucasus. According to some estimates, daytime temperatures in Central Russia may remain in the range of +27...+30 degrees, while nighttime cooling will become less pronounced.
The opposite picture is expected in the Far East: in Primorsky Krai and Sakhalin, temperatures may be below the climatic norm. Similar deviations towards cooler weather in June are possible in Irkutsk, Magadan, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Yakutsk.
In July, warmer values relative to normal are likely in the Central and Southern Federal Districts. In August, the excess of long-term indicators may be recorded in Tuva, Yakutia, Altai, as well as in the west of the Magadan Region and in the north of the Khabarovsk Territory. A cooler background is expected in the north of the Urals and the east of the Northwestern Federal District during the same period.
It is important to keep in mind that such forecasts are preliminary in nature. Experts recommend checking weather conditions 7-10 days before traveling, since short-term forecasts are formed taking into account the current atmospheric situation and are the most accurate.
Weather in Sochi, Anapa and Crimea in summer 2026
It is believed that summer actually comes at a time when the average daily air temperature steadily exceeds +15 degrees and stays at this level for several days in a row. This indicator is used in meteorology as one of the key criteria for the transition to the summer season.
In the south of the European part of Russia — in Krasnodar, Anapa, Sochi — such conditions usually develop in the second half of April. The air warms up faster here, the warm, comfortable weather sets earlier, and the active holiday season begins.
During the day, the air temperature usually stays within +24...+28 degrees, and at night it does not fall below +18...+20. July is traditionally the hottest month. During this period, daytime temperatures are usually in the range of +28...+32 degrees. A similar temperature background persists in August, and during periods of heat it can reach +35.
According to Yandex.Weather conditions", in June in Anapa and Sochi it is expected to average from +21 to +25 degrees, in July — +25...+28 degrees, and in August — +26...+28 degrees. In the territory of the Crimean Peninsula in June, the daytime temperature is expected to reach +24...+28 degrees, in July — from +25 to +30 degrees, and in August — from +24 to +29 degrees.
In the central regions of the country, the transition to summer occurs later, usually in mid—to-late May, when temperatures gradually settle above the specified threshold. At the same time, the dates may vary depending on the specific year: atmospheric processes, the number of sunny days and the nature of air mass circulation have an impact.
In the northern and eastern regions of Russia, summer comes even later. There, a steady excess of + 15 degrees is often recorded only in early summer, which is associated with a colder climate and a slow warming of the air after the winter period.
Dates of the bathing season: temperatures in the Black, Azov, and Baltic Seas
Those who plan a summer vacation by the sea should take into account regional climatic features, as well as find out in advance the dates of the start of the bathing season — they depend on the water temperature in a particular area. There is no strictly set temperature threshold for the opening of the season, but there are generally accepted guidelines.
For example, in Central Russia, the bathing season is often opened immediately after Trinity, Tatyana Pozdnyakova, a leading expert at Meteonosti, told Izvestia. She added that in 2026, the holiday falls on May 31, which means that the conditional start date of the season is June 1.
"The official start of the bathing season is the period when the water temperature reaches +16 ... +17 degrees. However, with such values, we are talking more about short—term dipping rather than full-fledged swimming, therefore, in the Moscow region, the opening of the season is usually expected no earlier than mid-June," the expert explained.
Traditionally, the minimum water temperature at which you can swim is +18...+20 degrees. But for most vacationers, water around +22 degrees is considered the most comfortable.
In the southern resorts of Russia — in the Black and Azov Seas — such values are usually reached earlier. Under favorable weather conditions, the first swims are possible as early as May, but stable heat is usually established later — in early to mid-June.
According to the Yandex. Travel", at the beginning of the season, the water warms up to +21... +24 degrees, by July it reaches +24...+27 degrees, and in August it reaches maximum values, about +25 ... +28 degrees.
The situation is different in the Baltic Sea. Due to the cooler climate and the peculiarities of the hydrological regime, the water here warms up much more slowly, so the bathing season starts later than in the south of the country. Even in June, the temperature often remains below the comfortable values of +15...+18 degrees, and a relatively stable and warm period is established closer to the middle of summer.
August is traditionally considered the most favorable time to relax on the Baltic coast. During this period, the water reaches its maximum temperatures for the season, and weather conditions become more stable, which makes the end of summer a "golden" month for holidays in the Baltic. At the same time, even in the hottest summer, the water rarely warms up above +24 degrees.
Weather anomalies in summer 2026: what to expect
According to meteorologists, this year's summer promises to be not only warm, but also arid in a number of regions of the country, which increases the risk of forest fires. According to the Hydrometeorological Center, in June the most difficult situation is predicted in the Volga region and the Urals — in the Saratov, Orenburg, Samara regions and in the south of Bashkortostan. The fire danger zone may expand in July.
Anatoly Tsygankov explained to Izvestia that the fire season in Russia this year started on April 1. According to him, the level of fire risk is determined on the basis of a special indicator — the fire hazard class (KPO), which is calculated taking into account weather conditions.
"The meteorological method is currently being used: the air temperature and precipitation over a certain period are analyzed and fire hazard coefficients are calculated on this basis. This is directly related to natural factors," the specialist explained.
He added that, despite the influence of the weather, the main cause of wildfires is still the human factor - abandoned cigarette butts, burning dry grass and making bonfires in forbidden places.
According to the Hydrometeorological Center's assessment of weather conditions and retrospective data, in June the greatest fire danger is expected in the Saratov, Orenburg and Samara regions, in the south of Bashkortostan, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan regions, in the center and east of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, in the republics of Altai and Tyva, in Transbaikalia, in Yakutia, the Magadan region and in the central part of Kamchatka edges.
In July, high and extremely high fire danger is possible in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions, the Republics of Karelia and Komi, in the north of the Irkutsk Region and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. High KPIs will remain in Tuva, Yakutia, the Chelyabinsk Region and the Kamchatka Territory.
In August, the greatest fire danger is expected in the Lipetsk, Voronezh, Tambov, Saratov and Volgograd regions, as well as in the Krasnodar Territory. Southern Siberia, Transbaikalia and Yakutia will remain at risk.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
