Power actor: Israel may disrupt the US-Iran deal
The escalation around Lebanon threatens the implementation of any agreements reached between the United States and Iran, according to the expert community. Earlier, the Israeli army intensified its offensive in southern Lebanon, continuing operations against Hezbollah. Following this, Tehran threatened to withdraw from negotiations with Washington, which provoked an extremely harsh reaction from Donald Trump. According to media reports, he snapped at Benjamin Netanyahu. The United States continues to seek agreements and keeps the diplomatic track with Iran open. And the situation in Israel, including the electoral dynamics and the trial of the Prime Minister, further complicates decision-making.
Fighting in Lebanon
At a time when Washington is trying to preserve the space for a diplomatic settlement with Iran, Israel does not stop fighting in the Lebanese direction. On June 2, the Israeli Air Force and artillery launched new attacks on southern Lebanon. Local media reported at least eight deaths. The strikes were recorded, in particular, in the area of the city of Jibshit.
The IDF has appealed to residents of the city of Nabatiya in southern Lebanon to leave their homes ahead of the Israeli strikes. The military also reported that on the morning of June 2, they noticed a drone allegedly launched by the Lebanese Hezbollah movement towards Israeli positions in southern Lebanon. Because of this drone, sirens went off in the border town of Kiryat Shmona.
The mutual strikes continued, even despite the US demands to cease fire. Earlier, President Donald Trump held a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Axios reported that it took place in an extremely tense atmosphere, it came to abusive language. The US president called the Israeli prime minister crazy and, shouting, allegedly obscenely asked him: "What are you doing?"
As a result, Trump announced that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a cease-fire, noting that the parties were ready to stop shooting, and the IDF would withdraw troops from Beirut.
Tensions rose sharply after Netanyahu ordered strikes on the Dahia area in the suburbs of Beirut. Following this, reports appeared in Iranian and Middle Eastern sources that Tehran may suspend or freeze contacts with the United States on negotiations — the parties are agreeing to conclude an agreement that would allow for further dialogue to resolve issues related to Tehran's nuclear and missile program. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has threatened to suspend the negotiation process with the United States and speak out against Israel if military action continues against Lebanon.
"There will be no negotiations until Israel withdraws from the occupied territories in Lebanon and stops operations in Gaza," Iran's Tasnim news agency wrote on Monday. Nevertheless, Trump stated on his Truth Social page that consultations with Iran were continuing and were "proceeding at an accelerated pace."
The IDF expanded its invasion zone in Lebanon at the end of May. The troops advanced into the border areas to clear Hezbollah's military infrastructure and crossed the Litani River. One of the key symbolic stages of the operation was the occupation of the Beaufort fortress by Israeli forces. The increased Israeli activity in Lebanon reflects not only the regional dynamics of the confrontation with Iranian-backed forces, but also inevitably affects the domestic political context in Israel itself. His political system remains divided on key issues of governance, including the balance of power between the Government and the judiciary, as well as the overall model of governance in a protracted crisis.
Parliamentary elections are due to take place in the autumn of 2026, and now the electoral context in Israel remains one of the key elements in domestic politics, especially in a situation where criticism of Netanyahu is intensifying within the ruling coalition.
In May, the spiritual leaders and deputies of the key factions ("Yaad ha-Torah" and "Degel ha-Torah") publicly declared a complete loss of confidence in Netanyahu. The reason was the failure to fulfill his promise to legislate the permanent exemption of yeshiva students from compulsory service in the IDF. Discontent with the authorities is also growing in the ranks of law enforcement agencies. The media previously reported on the resignation of a senior Mossad official after Roman Hoffman was appointed head of the organization, which may indicate internal disagreements in the Israeli department.
Finally, Netanyahu is now accused of three corruption cases (receiving illegal gifts in excess of $230,000, cheating on media regulation in exchange for favorable coverage of his policies, and bribery to promote projects in the interests of friends), which does not contribute to his popularity. And by the way, during a telephone conversation, the American leader reminded Netanyahu of the accusations against him in the past. The fighting distracts the population from legal claims against the prime minister, said Lyudmila Samarskaya, an employee of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the IMEMO RAS.
— Interest in the trial of Benjamin Netanyahu has, in principle, decreased somewhat in recent years, largely due to the severity of the military challenges. Criticism of the prime Minister is now more related to unrealized promises on security issues than to open cases against him," she told Izvestia.
Will Israel interfere with the negotiations between the United States and Iran
At the same time, Israeli officials — both from the current government, the opposition and the defense sector — unanimously condemned the emerging agreement between the United States and Iran, calling it a bad deal and a diplomatic disaster that does not meet the interests of the country's national security. The Israeli leadership fears that the Trump administration is ready to make concessions to Tehran, effectively leaving Israel out of key negotiations.
Netanyahu had previously publicly outlined Israel's "red lines." He stated that any final agreement must completely eliminate the nuclear threat. The prime minister insists on three key conditions: the complete removal of enriched uranium from Iran, the final cessation of Tehran's nuclear program and the permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Israel categorically demands that the settlement of the Hezbollah issue be an integral part of or parallel to the US-Iran deal.
— Escalation around Lebanon and attacks on Hezbollah-linked facilities could jeopardize the implementation of any agreements reached. From the point of view of Tehran, this may be perceived as a violation of the terms of the deal, which will inevitably complicate or even disrupt the implementation of its other provisions. Therefore, the Lebanese factor remains one of the key potential obstacles to a sustainable US-Iranian agreement," the program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council (INF) told Izvestia Ivan Bocharov.
Therefore, the Lebanese direction can become a serious risk factor even in the case of progress on the track of Washington and Tehran. Israel coordinates many issues with the United States as its key ally, but it often acts independently on issues that it considers critical to its own security, Bocharov added.
Expert Lyudmila Samarskaya notes that Israel seeks to convey its position to the United States, but it is taken into account mainly when it does not contradict American interests in specific conditions. The main criticism of the peace treaty between the United States and Iran on the part of Israel is that, according to the Jewish state, this agreement does not eliminate all threats from Iran.
"Israel's greatest fear is that the terms of the deal will not impose real restrictions on Iran's nuclear and missile programs, as well as on its regional activities," Samarskaya stressed.
In his recent statement, Trump indicated the approximate timing of the agreement, but at the same time added that he had not approved the previous version of the agreement, as he was awaiting the inclusion of "several more points" in the memorandum. "I think we are talking about next week," the US president said earlier. According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States is simultaneously exerting pressure on Oman to sever relations with Tehran.
Despite the growing tension in the Lebanese direction and reports of escalation, the negotiation process between the United States and Iran continues, and the parties maintain contacts on key parameters of the future agreement. However, it is in Israel that these foreign policy processes inevitably overlap with internal political dynamics, where issues of security, judicial proceedings and the stability of the ruling coalition form a single decision-making context. As a result, external escalation and diplomacy are closely intertwined with the internal political struggle that defines the framework of the Israeli strategy.
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