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- Shah ahead: Iran and the United States are trying to agree on the terms of a peace agreement
Shah ahead: Iran and the United States are trying to agree on the terms of a peace agreement
Iran and the United States may conclude an agreement in the coming days. And although the parties have moved on to discussing specific formulations, it is unlikely that Washington and Tehran will be able to agree on a comprehensive peace treaty, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The parties are still not ready to make concessions on fundamental issues: the nuclear program, the status of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the procedure for unfreezing Iranian assets. The negotiations are also being monitored by Israel, which continues to expand the attack zone in Lebanon. It is possible that the Jewish state will try to disrupt the diplomatic settlement if it feels that its interests will not be taken into account.
Status of negotiations
Washington and Tehran are engaged in intense negotiations over a possible document on an Iranian settlement. According to media reports, the negotiators reached a preliminary agreement last week on a framework memorandum that provides for extending the ceasefire for 60 days and launching long-term negotiations.
However, the final approval of the document by US President Donald Trump and the Iranian leadership remains in doubt due to the sharp tightening of Washington's demands, Western publications write. The New York Times and Axios reported that following a meeting at the White House on May 29, the American leader requested a number of amendments related to Iran's nuclear program and the unfreezing of Iran's foreign assets. In addition, Trump wants to change a number of formulations related to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The media does not provide specific details. At the same time, these issues remain the most acute problem points in the dialogue between the United States and Iran.
It is noteworthy that even on the eve of the meeting, the American leader announced the lifting of the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He presented this step as a willingness for a diplomatic settlement and put forward counter-conditions to Tehran. Among them is the complete abandonment of the development of nuclear weapons, the opening of unhindered passage of ships without levying fees from Iran. Finally, he stated that all underwater mines in the Strait, if any, would be destroyed. Among the demands for peace, Trump also named the extraction and disposal of enriched uranium by US forces in coordination with Iran and the IAEA.
The official text or at least the draft of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran has not been published anywhere. Excerpts from the proposals are regularly published by the American media. According to them, the United States insists that economic relief is possible only after progress on nuclear points. Iran, in turn, is seeking an end to the war, the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets, leaving the details of the nuclear program for a subsequent round of negotiations.
Tehran, according to various sources, insists that $24 billion be unfrozen as part of any potential deal. Moreover, as the Fars news agency wrote, the Islamic Republic will continue further dialogue with Washington after the United States "immediately" pays half — $ 12 billion. However, Trump has made it clear that the United States is not yet ready to make concrete concessions.
The tough negotiating position of the United States is met with clear criticism in Tehran. Mohsen Rezaei, the military adviser to the supreme leader of Iran, said earlier that Trump, making "excessive demands" at the talks, does not want a settlement of the conflict. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stressed that the Islamic Republic will not agree to any deal until the rights of the Iranian people are secured. "Our only criterion is to achieve concrete results before we fulfill our obligations," he stressed.
Prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement
The fact that Tehran and Washington have moved to agree on specific formulations of the framework memorandum and may agree on it in the coming days certainly brings a diplomatic settlement of the crisis closer. On May 25, U.S. and Iranian negotiators began contacts in Qatar to work out a draft agreement. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that it could take "several days" to agree on the wording of the deal. On May 28, Vice President J. D. Vance said that the United States and Iran were "very close" to it.
At the same time, military tensions do not subside, and the parties continue to strike each other. Over the past week, the United States and Iran have attacked each other at least twice. On May 31, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported the destruction of the American MQ-1 Predator UAV. At the same time, the Pentagon does not rule out the resumption of full-scale hostilities if Tehran proves intractable. "We are more than capable," War Minister Pete Hegseth threatened on May 30. "Our reserves are more than suitable for this both there and around the world."
MQ-1 Predator
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the United States and Iran will be able to conclude a peace agreement in the near future, but it is unlikely to be comprehensive.
— Judging by the incoming reports, progress in certain areas of negotiations is indeed possible. The parties are probably trying to bring their positions closer on a number of issues. However, at this stage, we are talking more about a lengthy negotiation process and bargaining than about an early exit to the final agreement. Therefore, I would rate the likelihood of reaching comprehensive agreements in the near future as "below average," said Ivan Bocharov, INF Program Manager.
Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics, believes that even if the United States and Iran conclude an agreement, this will not be an absolute guarantee that Washington will finally abandon launching new attacks on Iran.
On the other hand, the Iranians are now in a more privileged diplomatic position than the United States and Trump, says Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East of the Institute of Islamic Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— Their main task is to delay the process until November, the midterm congressional elections. And then see how Trump will act after the failure of his Republican Party. This will change U.S. policy, and Iran is counting on it," he said.
The Israel Factor
It should be understood that the peace agreement will have to provide for the cessation of hostilities, including between Israel and the pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah movement. However, so far the situation in the Lebanese direction is only getting worse. On May 31, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced the capture of the Beaufort Crusader fortress, calling it one of the most important strategic points for protecting settlements in the Galilee and ensuring the security of Israeli forces.
The Israeli position is that the dynamics of the Lebanese front should not be linked to a truce in the Iranian direction, said Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the IMEMO Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— Israel is closely monitoring the US-Iranian negotiations and is committed to ensuring that its interests, including limiting Iran's nuclear and missile programs, as well as regional activities, are taken into account. However, there are doubts in the country that this can be achieved through diplomacy," she told Izvestia.
Israel is not yet seeking to disrupt the truce, but it will be ready to resume hostilities if the US-Iranian negotiations fail to achieve their goal, the expert believes. At the same time, Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, notes that every time there is a movement towards an agreement between the United States and Iran, Israel intensifies and expands attacks on Lebanon.
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the expansion of the war into Lebanon, as well as Israeli control over the Gaza Strip, which leads some to assume that this is either a sign of his concern about the proximity of an agreement, or an attempt to disrupt negotiations in the hope that Iran will abandon them," he told Izvestia.
The most important parliamentary elections are due to be held in Israel in October 2026. And although the official election campaign has not yet been announced, the country has actually already plunged into an active election race. In these circumstances, it is important for Netanyahu to maximize the benefits of the conflict with Iran and Hezbollah in order to present concrete results to the voters and show himself a strong leader.
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