The expert predicted the continuation of the sideways movement of bitcoin in early June

The first week of June will be marked by expectation for the cryptocurrency market. After a 3.5% decrease in the value of bitcoin in May and ten days of continuous outflow of funds from ETF funds, the market entered a phase of consolidation and search for a new direction of movement. Alexander Baryshnikov, the manager of the Mining fund of the Record Capital Management Company, told Izvestia on June 1.

According to the expert, the most likely trading range for bitcoin in the period from 1 to 7 June will be the corridor from $ 70.5 thousand to $77.5 thousand. The baseline scenario assumes a movement in the range of $ 72-76 thousand with a possible attempt at growth in the middle of the week before the publication of employment data in the United States.

Baryshnikov noted that if the exchange rate drops below $ 72.5 thousand, the market may test the levels of $70.5–71.25 thousand. At the same time, a return to the levels of $77-78 thousand is possible only with the reversal of institutional capital flows towards cryptocurrencies.

"The expert called the continued outflow of funds from spot bitcoin ETFs the main factor of pressure on the market. In the second half of May, investors withdrew about $3 billion from such funds, including more than $2 billion from the largest IBIT fund. This is not due to panic, but to the redistribution of capital in favor of shares of technology companies that benefit from the boom in artificial intelligence," the expert explained.

Additional pressure on cryptocurrencies is exerted by the policy of the US Federal Reserve System. The expert recalled that the Fed's representatives continue to admit the possibility of maintaining tight monetary policy against the background of steady inflation. High interest rates make bonds more attractive to investors and limit the flow of funds into risky assets, including digital currencies.

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Geopolitical risks remain another factor of uncertainty. According to Baryshnikov, the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as the tense situation in the Middle East, continue to put pressure on investor sentiment.

At the same time, the expert identified several support factors. One of them will be the publication of employment data in the United States. If the statistics turn out to be weaker than expected, the market may increase bets on an early easing of the Fed's policy, which traditionally supports demand for risky assets.

Baryshnikov also called the development of a regulated infrastructure a positive signal for the crypto industry. In particular, he drew attention to the approval of the first regulated perpetual bitcoin futures, which may contribute to the further influx of institutional investors into the industry.

According to the expert, the key factor for the market recovery remains the change in the dynamics of ETF flows. Even potentially positive signals from the Fed will not be able to ensure the steady growth of bitcoin if institutional investors continue to withdraw funds from cryptocurrency instruments. In the meantime, the market remains in the waiting mode for new drivers and is closely monitoring macroeconomic statistics and the actions of major players.

Bloomberg reported on May 26 that the Bitcoin implied Volatility Index (the level of price fluctuations expected by the market) Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index dropped to its lowest level since September 2025 amid weakening investor interest in the cryptocurrency. The decline occurred against the background of the fact that bitcoin cannot gain a foothold above $ 80 thousand. To date, the cryptocurrency is trading at about $77 thousand, which is almost 40% lower than the record $126 thousand reached in October 2025. Pressure on the market also intensified after investors began withdrawing money from American funds related to bitcoin.