One bottom: is it worth buying Bitcoin, which has started to grow
The collapse of bitcoin in February, with lows of $62,000, is unusual for the crypto market. It is not caused, as before, by "black swans" — by any bright negative events, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. At one point, several unpleasant factors for risky assets converged at once: unjustified hopes for Trump's crypto policy, a possible change of the Fed chairman, and a deterioration in geopolitics — the situation around Venezuela and Iran. But there is enough liquidity in the market, because investment funds that play for a long time have entered it. Whether bitcoin has moved away from its local "bottom", whether it is worth buying it now and how it can be legally done in Russia — in the Izvestia article.
Why Bitcoin Collapsed in February 2026
In the last week, bitcoin has begun to recover from the massive drop in recent months. Since October, its exchange rate has halved, from a maximum of $129 thousand to a minimum of $61 thousand in early February, according to data from the TradingView site. In the last month alone, it has lost a third of its value.
In early February, bitcoin showed the sharpest decline in three years, according to Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. But in the historical context, such a decline cannot be called a record: in 2013-2015, bitcoin lost 86%, in 2017-2018 - 84%, he recalled.
— The main difference from the previous crises in the crypto market is that there is no obvious "black swan" like the collapse of the FTX exchange, — said the expert.
On the one hand, this is an alarming moment. Previously, it was clear when the market would win back a negative event and the crypt would go up again. Now we are talking about a combination of factors, and long-term ones.
— The reasons for the recession at the beginning of 2026 lie in the plane of global liquidity. When technology stocks fall (and the bubble around AI companies deflates), institutions sell off the most liquid assets, including bitcoin," explained Denis Astafyev.
The second negative factor is the ongoing trade wars, in particular between the United States and China, added Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa—Forex's customer support and sales department.
He continued: the third negative point is the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a monetary policy hawk, to head the Fed. The markets were expecting a dovish candidate who could quickly lower rates, and disappointment led to a sell-off of risky assets. In other words, it became clear that investments in dollar assets would continue to be relatively profitable and stable, but there was no point in running into risky instruments.
— At the same time, geopolitical tensions have escalated: the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States, as well as sanctions pressure on Venezuela, have increased uncertainty and demand for the "safe haven". Against this background, bitcoin, which is increasingly correlating with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, followed the general bearish trend," Alexander Schneiderman summarized.
At the same time, the correlation of the crypto market with the largest business indexes is generally a positive signal for digital currencies. This means that quite a lot of liquidity has already been invested in them. Since institutional investors tend to play for a long time, this smooths out volatility.
What will happen to the bitcoin exchange rate in 2026
The cost of bitcoin in 2026 will depend entirely on whether there will be an influx of new capital into the crypto market, according to financial advisor and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin.
The depreciation may last until the middle of spring, says Alexander Baryshnikov, manager of the Mining fund at Record Capital Management Company. At the same time, there are unlikely to be deep drawdowns in price, as in previous cycles, because there is now much more liquidity in the market thanks to ETF funds.
— In addition, there is an active discussion at the level of central banks of a number of states on the adoption of digital currencies as part of gold and foreign exchange reserves. If this happens, the influx of money into this asset will jump along with the bitcoin exchange rate," Alexander Baryshnikov is optimistic.
Nevertheless, we should not expect significant growth in the coming months. Most likely, the rise will stop in the $80-85 thousand zone, predicts Sergey Potapov, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments.
However, nobody canceled the cyclical nature of bitcoin. The asset regularly — about once every four years — goes through a so-called halving. This is a two-fold reduction in the miners' reward for the extracted block. As a result, it becomes less profitable to mine a new cryptocurrency, and there is a shortage on the market, after which the exchange rate rises sharply and breaks new records. The last halving was in 2024, and the next one is expected in 2028.
Usually, after halving, the maximum value of the main cryptocurrency doubles — that is, bitcoin may well go above $ 200 thousand. However, the market is still in a state of crypto winter.
— It is premature to call today's level a bottom — support at $60 thousand is important, but its breakdown opens the way to $ 56 thousand. Nevertheless, those who believe in the long—term potential of bitcoin really use this phase for gradual purchases," said Alexander Schneiderman.
How to legally invest in Bitcoin in Russia
Cryptocurrency in Russia is now only partially regulated. By the beginning of 2026, it is legally regarded not as a payment instrument, but as property or an investment asset. You can buy bitcoin through regulated services (for example, Whitebird, A7A5 and other licensed exchangers).
At the same time, many services use a P2P trading system: at the same time, crypto is transferred between wallets, and fiat (regular) money is transferred between accounts of the same individuals, thus an exchange takes place. Such P2P transactions are not prohibited by themselves, but they are associated with increased risks of fraud and blocking. Therefore, "white" exchangers with transparent documents are considered a safer option.
One of the safest and easiest options for Russians is to buy spot ETFs on the Forex market. This method is considered optimal in terms of risks and convenience, says Sergey Potapov. In addition, crypto futures are available to Russians on the Moscow Stock Exchange, Denis Astafyev added.
You can also make money in this market using mining: with the adoption of the relevant law in 2024, it became legal. But it's not easy. To do this, you need to purchase equipment, find a site for its placement, join the register of miners by registering with the tax inspectorate, open a crypto wallet and keep tax and accounting records.
— Moreover, a familiar tool has now appeared and is regulated by the Bank of Russia for qualified investors in the form of a mutual fund for investments in bitcoin mining, — Alexander Baryshnikov added.
It is critically important to wait until July 2026, when the new regulation of the Central Bank will work, Denis Astafyev emphasized. It is assumed that then unqualified investors will be able to legally buy liquid cryptocurrencies through licensed intermediaries with a limit of 300 thousand rubles per year. This will bring the market out of the gray area and provide clear rules of the game.
It is definitely not worth investing all your savings in this digital asset, concluded Alexey Rodin. If you agree to such investments, then for conservative investors the share of crypto assets should not exceed 5%, and for those who are ready for high risks — 10-20%.
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