A buck or a feature: Russians are waiting for a dollar of 89 rubles in the spring
Many Russians believe that the ruble will weaken to 89 per dollar this spring, according to a survey by the VTsIOM analytical center (Izvestia has it). This is 16% higher than the current level. The national currency may indeed sink, but not so fast, analysts say. According to their forecast, the "American" will trade in the range of 75-82 rubles/$. At the same time, pessimistic forecasts of citizens usually do not come true, but only accelerate inflationary expectations. About why Russians do not believe in a strong ruble and whether it is worth waiting for a sharp jump in the exchange rate now — in the Izvestia article.
Why does the population not believe in a strong ruble
As early as this spring, the ruble exchange rate may sink, according to Russians interviewed by the VTsIOM analytical center (Izvestia has a study). This forecast was given by half of the respondents — they expect that in April a dollar will cost an average of 89 rubles. This is 16% more than it is now. The survey, which involved 1,600 people, was conducted at the end of January.
At the same time, in 12 months (in January 2027), citizens predict the dollar at 98. However, expectations from previous public polls were not fulfilled. Russians are afraid of the devaluation of the national currency - many could not predict that the ruble would be so strong. In the last month, the dollar has fluctuated between 78 and 75.7. On February 6, the Bank of Russia set the exchange rate at 76.55 rubles/$
At the same time, in January 2025, respondents expected that in a year the "American" would cost an average of 114 rubles, which is 38 rubles higher than the actual level. In October 2025, the short-term forecast (for three months) became more "mundane" — 90 rubles, but still far from reality.
Russians approach forecasting the dollar exchange rate with the attitude of "defensive pessimism," said Stepan Lvov, chairman of the scientific council of the VTsIOM analytical center. He explained: The strengthening of the ruble last year (by almost a quarter) confused many "people's forecasting experts." The proportion of those who generally undertake to predict the course has dropped significantly.
This disorientation is typical not only for ordinary people, but also for expert economists, for whom the situation of over-strengthening turned out to be very unexpected, the expert added.
A significant part of Russians, including representatives of small and medium-sized businesses, distrust the ruble due to the unpredictability of its dynamics, including against the background of geopolitics, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At the same time, the American dollar's exchange rate without sudden collapses and strengthening is much more important than its value, the expert explained.
How do Russians' expectations of the dollar exchange rate affect the economy
Citizens' expectations of the ruble exchange rate themselves become part of economic reality and primarily affect inflation expectations, not the national currency, said Elena Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Savings Bank JSC. This is due to the fact that when the ruble weakens, imported goods usually become more expensive.
"When a significant number of people put a scenario of a weaker ruble into their decisions, this is reflected in consumer behavior: purchases accelerate, businesses are more cautious about pricing, setting currency risks in advance," she explained.
Traditionally, imported goods and segments closely related to the currency component remain the most sensitive in this situation — electronics, household appliances, automobiles, certain categories of medicines and components for industry.
However, while maintaining moderate inflation and the predictable monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, the impact of these expectations on the actual price increase will be restrained and will not lead to a sharp jump, added Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and sales department. Since the beginning of the year, inflation has already reached 2.11%. A sharp increase in expectations can accelerate the weekly price increase from the current 0.2% to higher values.
Izvestia contacted the Ministry of Energy with a question about how Russians' expectations will affect inflation.
What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in 2026
According to the average assessment of representatives of universities and brokerage companies, in the spring the "American" will trade in the range of 75-82 rubles/ $, and by the end of December this figure will rise to 80-85 rubles/ $. At the same time, experts have assumed that the average annual level may vary between 85-89 rubles/ $.
— If we talk about the dynamics of the exchange rate this year, then it is logical to expect the preservation of a moderately volatile, but generally manageable range. In spring, the ruble usually feels supported by export earnings and tax periods, which limits its weakening. By the end of the year and the beginning of 2027, a weaker level is possible, but without extreme values," stressed Elena Marchuk.
At the same time, the authorities have included in the financial plan the dollar exchange rate at 92.2 rubles on average for 2026.
If the ruble does weaken significantly, this will be transferred to prices and will immediately affect the inflation expectations of citizens for the worse, said Alexander Ivanov, macroeconomics analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company. The cost of imported goods, as well as trips abroad, will react to this fairly quickly. However, the more smoothly and gradually the exchange rate increases, the less noticeable it will be for citizens. This means that it will have less impact on their inflation expectations.
What will support and weaken the ruble
In the coming months, the ruble exchange rate will be shaped by several factors at once. Together, they form a fairly stable and favorable picture for the national currency.
The trade balance will remain the key, the economist, an expert on financial markets, is sure. Olga Gogaladze. As long as Russia sells more goods abroad than it buys, the national currency remains stable, she added.
— The mechanism here is extremely simple: exports of oil, gas, metals and other raw materials ensure the inflow of foreign currency into the country, while imports, on the contrary, lead to its outflow. The balance between these flows forms the foundation of the ruble exchange rate," she added.
According to the Federal Customs Service, for 11 months of 2025, Russia's foreign trade turnover amounted to $622.7 billion (-4.1% compared to last year), while exports decreased to $373.7 billion and imports to $249 billion.
It is assumed that the trade balance will remain confidently positive in the near future: a surplus of 4.4–5.4% of GDP is expected. It is this stable inflow of export foreign exchange earnings that is considered as the main pillar of the ruble in 2026.
The excess supply of foreign currency over demand will continue to provide support, which smooths out the effect of the reduction of operations by the Ministry of Finance, believes Alexander Schneiderman. The ruble will also be supported by the still high key rate of the Central Bank, which is likely to decrease to 11-12% only by the end of this year, Natalia Milchakova believes.
At the same time, there are factors that are dragging the national currency down. The exchange rate may rise due to the unfavorable price situation in the commodity markets, primarily energy resources, believes Alexander Dzhioev, head of the macroeconomics and Stock Market group at Alfa Capital Management Company. According to Natalia Milchakova, the slowdown in the global economy, especially in China and India, as well as possible geopolitical tensions will also have a negative impact.
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