Fortress check: what will be the ruble exchange rate in 2026
In 2025, contrary to all forecasts, the ruble continued to strengthen against the major currencies. In the last quarter alone, it added more than 7%, although before that it seemed that it was already quite expensive. This time, experts do not expect a new decline in the ruble, at least significantly, in 2026 — there are not enough fundamental factors for it. And the financial authorities are unlikely to devalue the ruble directly, despite calls for this from part of the business community. About how the exchange rate will change in the next three months and in 2026 as a whole, see the Izvestia article.
On the twentieth of December, Bloomberg named the Russian ruble the most growing currency of 2025. Indeed, over the past 12 months, the ruble has strengthened by more than 45% against the dollar. This is not only the best indicator in the world in 2025, but also the best annual indicator for the ruble in its entire history. In the last three months, the strengthening of the ruble has intensified — it has grown from 82 to 77.5 rubles per dollar. It should be noted that all this happened against the background, firstly, of lower oil prices, and secondly, of tougher sanctions.
In fact, the second factor rather plays on the side of the ruble. Capital is largely "locked up" in the country, payments for international trade are increasingly being made in rubles and there is nowhere to spend the currency. And most importantly, the nominal and real key rates remain extremely high.
All this contradicts most of the forecasts that analysts made a year ago. Almost everyone predicted a dollar above 100 rubles, and many assumed reaching 120-130 rubles. No one expected a drop below 80 rubles.
The positive side of a strong ruble (apart from the benefits for Russian tourists) is that it significantly slows down inflation, which has slowed to about 5.7% this year. But there is even more anxiety. For example, scientists from ICSI and the Stolypin Institute said that the ruble has become "abnormally strong," which harms government and business revenues. A strong ruble suppresses domestic production, especially export-oriented production, and also negatively affects budget revenues. Despite this, the Bank of Russia has been pursuing a policy of floating exchange rates and non-interference in the quotations of the national currency on the stock exchange and the interbank market all year.
What will change in 2026 — will we finally see a smooth or even sharp decline in the ruble, or will it take on new heights? Izvestia interviewed Russian analysts.
"The government is unlikely to sacrifice the ruble"
Yulia Khandoshko, CEO of the European broker Mind Money
We are ending 2025 with a curious figure: Russia's GDP growth was less than 1%. But the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, the department responsible for the budget, is much more interesting. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov expects the same 1% growth next year. And this means only one thing: no real economic development is expected in 2026.
Now the Russian departments have a difficult fork in the road. Or weaken the ruble and ease monetary policy to the detriment of social achievements, because inflation will hit the poorer segments of the population the most, and the weakening of the ruble will affect the rise in prices of most consumer goods. Or choose stability without economic growth.
With the ruble remaining a highly convertible currency, the government is unlikely to sacrifice it for the sake of future uncertainty. Therefore, my forecast remains the same: the exchange rate will remain in a stable range of 78-83 rubles per dollar, with the first quarter closer to the upper limit — about 83 rubles.
In the next three months of 2026, there are probably no grounds for drastic changes. There seems to be a consensus in the government that a weakening of the ruble is definitely not necessary in the short term.
"Car imports will affect the ruble"
Pavel Biryukov, Chief Economist at Gazprombank
We expect that in 2026 the average exchange rate will be about 91.5 rubles per dollar, while by the end of the year the ruble may reach the range of 93-97 rubles.
In 2026, fundamental factors will exert key pressure on the ruble. Among them is an 8-10% reduction in oil prices (to $50 per barrel), resulting in a reduced current account surplus ($27-30 billion versus $64 billion in 2024) and a continued reduction in the key rate to 12-14% by the end of the year. Among other things, the scale of operations of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will change: net sales of foreign currency may decrease from $23.5 billion in 2025 to $8-10 billion in 2026.
However, in the short term, the ruble may continue to receive some support from a decrease in car imports in the first quarter (after an increase in recycling) and the possible conversion of foreign currency deposits (received in September and October for $ 20 billion) into rubles.
"The authorities will not interfere in exchange rate formation"
Natalia Pyrieva, Head of the Analytical Department of Digital Broker
After the end of the New Year holidays, we expect a moderate weakening of the ruble. The main pressure factor will be a twofold reduction in the volume of daily currency sales by the Bank of Russia as part of the mirroring of NWF operations. Starting from January 12, 2026, sales will decrease to 4.62 billion rubles per day against 8.94 billion rubles in the second half of 2025. Nevertheless, the national currency will continue to be supported by a high key interest rate and seasonally low business activity at the beginning of the year and weak import demand. We expect the ruble to move towards 85 rubles per US dollar, 97 rubles per euro, and 12 rubles per yuan in the first quarter.
We do not expect the financial authorities to interfere in exchange rate formation, as the ruble is likely to return to more balanced values in the near future as the Bank of Russia's monetary policy is systematically eased and the subsequent attractiveness of ruble assets decreases, which will lead to increased consumer demand and a recovery in imports, which means demand for foreign currency. The weak dynamics of oil prices narrows the export inflows of foreign currency into the country, which, combined with a reduction in the key rate, will be reflected in a reduction in sales of export earnings, that is, the volume of revenue itself will decrease, and additional volumes of foreign exchange supply on the market will decrease due to the absence of a requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings.
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