Near-water element: US and Israeli attacks threaten Iran talks
The escalation of the situation in the Middle East threatens the achievement of peace between the United States and Iran, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On the night of May 26, American troops attacked targets in southern Iran. At the same time, the Israeli leadership announced an expansion of the military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Under these conditions, indirect talks are taking place in Qatar between representatives of Washington and Tehran.
New US strikes on Iran
While the next round of indirect talks between the United States and Iran was taking place in the capital of Qatar with the mediation of European diplomats, the situation in the region sharply escalated. On the night of May 26, the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM) launched targeted strikes against targets in southern Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. American forces hit the territory near the strategically important port city of Bandar Abbas, a missile launch site, and also destroyed two military boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
According to CENTCOM, the attacked boats tried to plant mines. According to Iranian media reports, four IRGC soldiers were killed as a result of American strikes. The United States says it carried out the strikes "in self-defense." Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump clarified that this attack does not mean the end of the truce with Iran, and negotiations on a framework agreement in Qatar are "progressing normally."
The Iranian military, in turn, warned that new US attacks would not go unanswered. Abolfazl Shekarchi, a senior Iranian military official, said that if the war resumes, Tehran's subsequent attacks will become more widespread and will spread beyond the region. Representatives of the corps also reported the defeat of an American drone and the firing of an F-35 fighter jet. Iran has warned that in the event of an escalation and breakdown of negotiations, the world will face a harsh response and a spike in oil prices to $ 200 per barrel.
China reacted to the situation, which is extremely interested in stabilizing the situation in the region, as an escalation of the crisis could again affect energy supplies. Beijing has called on both sides to exercise maximum restraint. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the United States and Iran to comply with the terms of the truce and resolve the accumulated differences exclusively peacefully, at the negotiating table.
On May 25, the Iranian delegation arrived in Qatar to hold talks with representatives of the United States. It includes Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Central Bank Governor Abdul Nasser Hemmati. However, according to some reports, Ghalibaf has already left Doha. The United States is represented by special envoys of President Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The parties are conducting indirect discussions mediated by Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani.
Negotiations are expected to continue on May 27. On the same day, Donald Trump is due to hold an important cabinet meeting at Camp David, where the American terms of the agreement will be approved.
US President Donald Trump
The parties in Doha are trying to finalize a memorandum on extending the truce for 60 days. According to the White House, the framework agreement is already 95% ready. At the same time, Marco Rubio claimed that the parties were actually arguing about "individual words or sentences." The United States demands that the Strait of Hormuz be opened to free navigation, and also declares the need to completely dismantle Iran's nuclear potential. According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Strait of Hormuz must be opened "one way or another."
In turn, Iran demands the cessation of hostilities and the lifting of sanctions, as well as the unfreezing of its assets. According to the Tasnim news agency, Tehran insists that $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets be unblocked as part of any potential deal. As for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, it should resume on Iran's terms. No fees will be charged for the passage of ships, but Tehran wants to charge for maritime services and environmental protection measures in the waters of the Persian and Omani Gulfs.
Prospects for negotiations and threats from Israel
The US strikes are a test of strength, says Farhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics. They are trying to figure out how much the Iranians are willing to respond in the same way and throw Tehran off balance. According to him, Iran will not respond to provocations, however, if it realizes that these strikes will not stop and the Americans have already "got a taste", there is a high chance of resuming large-scale hostilities.
Earlier, in April, negotiations between the United States and Iran were already held in the capital of Pakistan, but they failed to achieve a complete cessation of the conflict. The sides disagreed on a number of key issues, including the status of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran's missile and nuclear programs. At the same time, Islamabad has not stopped its mediation mission.
According to Ibragimov, one of the main problems of the negotiation process is Tehran's distrust of Washington. The Americans had previously abandoned diplomacy in favor of forceful methods during negotiations.
"Although every American strike against Iran is not out of strength, but out of weakness, as the United States demonstrates that it is in a very precarious position and cannot do more about Iran," the analyst believes.
Nevertheless, the probability of a breakdown in negotiations is very high. The Americans are now betting that they will be able to sign a memorandum with Iran that will extend the truce for 60 days. During this period, the parties must agree on key issues, including the nuclear program. In case of failure, the Americans, together with Israel, will resume hostilities, says Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East of the Institute of Islamic Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— Israel is a factor that the United States cannot control. And here we need to pay more attention to the domestic political situation in Israel than to the international one. Because this escalation is from Israel, from [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, in fact, is motivated solely by the issues of preserving the current ruling coalition, which has already, well, collapsed," said Sergey Demidenko, dean of the Faculty of the School of Political Studies at the ION Presidential Academy.
On the night of May 26, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out a massive wave of strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, as a result of which dozens of settlements and infrastructure facilities of the Hezbollah movement were attacked. It could have been the largest attack since the ceasefire was announced on April 17. Netanyahu promised "not to take his foot off the pedal" and to intensify attacks on Hezbollah.
The Israeli Prime Minister's activity can be regarded as an attempt to demonstrate strength and strengthen the image of a defender of the nation before the upcoming elections in the country. This is how the ruling coalition seeks to consolidate the right-wing part of the electorate and divert attention from prosecution and internal problems. Netanyahu is being tried in three corruption cases at once. He is suspected of receiving expensive gifts, fraud and bribery. The Israeli Prime Minister denies his guilt.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
