- Статьи
- World
- Document on the contrary: the US-Iran memorandum will not stop the conflict in the Middle East
Document on the contrary: the US-Iran memorandum will not stop the conflict in the Middle East
US President Donald Trump must decide soon whether to continue negotiations with Iran or resume hostilities in the Middle East. According to media reports, Washington and Tehran have approached a memorandum that could extend the ceasefire for another 60 days. Experts believe that the chances of a temporary agreement remain high, but it will not bring a full-fledged settlement: disagreements over the nuclear program, sanctions and security guarantees will remain. If the negotiations fail, the fighting may resume, which will cause an even greater blow to the global economy.
Memorandum between the United States and Iran
According to Western media reports, Washington and Tehran have approached a memorandum that could extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself said that the document had been "largely agreed upon," but later clarified that he did not intend to rush into signing it. According to Western media reports, American restrictions against Iranian ports and oil shipments will remain in place until the final approval of the deal.
"Either we reach a good deal, or I'll send them to a thousand hells," Trump told Axios, noting that he estimated the chances of a deal "50-50."
According to media reports, the memorandum provides for the free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of some restrictions from Iranian ports and certain sanctions exceptions that will allow Iran to sell oil. Tehran will have to make commitments on its nuclear program — the United States demands that Iran stop enriching uranium, remove its accumulated reserves and give guarantees that it will not create nuclear weapons. Tehran, in turn, does not want to look like a party that makes concessions under military pressure, and seeks the lifting of sanctions, the unfreezing of assets and security guarantees.
A separate controversial issue is the Strait of Hormuz. Washington demands the restoration of free navigation, while Iran considers control of this route to be its right and one of the main levers of pressure.
The parties have different approaches and possibilities in this matter. Iran can create risks for all shipping in the Strait by mining the transport artery and restricting the passage of tankers. The United States, in turn, does not block the strait itself, but primarily blocks Iranian port and oil logistics.
However, the probability of reaching an agreement, despite everything, is quite high, says Murad Sadigzade, president of the Center for Middle East Studies, a visiting lecturer at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to him, during the truce, the United States and Iran were able to bring their positions closer, although the negotiations themselves are going on behind the scenes.
— There will be a certain interim framework agreement, a memorandum of understanding, which will allow to temporarily end the current tension and continue working further. But I don't believe in a long—term settlement of the conflict yet," he said.
Why the agreement might not work
Iran has already made it clear that it is not ready to perceive the deal as a capitulation. Tehran insists that control over the Strait of Hormuz remains its right, and there are still controversial points in the negotiations. In addition, the project must undergo internal approval in Iran itself: first by the Supreme National Security Council, then by the supreme leader.
There is no reason to expect a full-fledged settlement yet, according to INF expert Ivan Bocharov. According to him, the main contradictions between the parties have not disappeared anywhere — first of all, it concerns the Iranian nuclear program.
"We are witnessing a discrepancy between the minimum demands of the United States towards Iran and the maximum concessions that the Islamic Republic is ready to make in the framework of the negotiation process," he told Izvestia.
The main problem in the current situation is Tehran's distrust of Washington. In 2015, a nuclear deal was already concluded under Barack Obama: Iran limited uranium enrichment, reduced stocks of nuclear material and allowed IAEA inspections, and in exchange received sanctions relief. However, in 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, saying that it did not resolve the issues of Iran's missile program and Tehran's influence in the region.
This, according to Bocharov, undermined Iran's confidence not only in the negotiations themselves, but also in any long-term security guarantees. Tehran believes that the agreements with Washington can be reviewed, and the military pressure may return even after the deal is concluded.
In addition, the new Iranian authorities are less willing to make concessions. Tehran has become convinced that the instruments of military pressure, especially through American allies in the region, can work successfully. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the infrastructure of the Gulf countries have further given Iran confidence that it is able to influence the global economy.
Therefore, even the signing of the memorandum does not exclude the return of the conflict to the hot phase. The parties can use the pause for negotiations, but at the same time prepare for a new escalation.
"We are currently witnessing a deterioration in the regional situation and growing fears that active hostilities may resume," Bocharov said.
What will Israel do?
Separately, it is worth emphasizing the position of Israel, which is not officially represented at the talks. Formally, negotiations are underway between the United States and Iran, but the Jewish state is directly interested in their outcome. For Israel, Iran remains the main adversary in the region, and its nuclear program has been one of the key security issues for the Jewish state for decades.
There is a broad consensus in Israeli society on the perception of Iran as a threat, noted orientalist Dmitry Maryasis. Tehran does not recognize Israel's right to exist and supports its opponents — Hamas, the Yemeni Houthis, the Lebanese Hezbollah and other forces. Therefore, for the current Israeli authorities, the ideal outcome would be an agreement that would guarantee Iran's non-nuclear status or at least severely limit its capabilities.
But this does not mean that Israel is necessarily interested in disrupting the negotiations. According to Marjasis, a successful military campaign could be beneficial for the current government against the background of the upcoming elections. However, only if its outcome could be confidently presented as a victory.
"Another military campaign with unclear results right on the eve of the elections is not what is needed," the expert believes.
According to him, professional circles in Israel understand that it will be difficult to achieve quick and unambiguous results against Iran. Therefore, Israel may be interested not so much in disrupting the negotiations as in ensuring that the agreement does not leave Iran with the opportunity to maintain its potential.
At the same time, Israel's role in the negotiations themselves is not fully clear. Some believe that he was removed from the discussions, while others believe that the country remains in a non—public role and influences the process behind closed doors.
In any case, Israel is trying to maintain its freedom of action. According to media reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear in a conversation with Trump that Israel reserves the right to act against threats. Therefore, even if the memorandum is signed, the country will monitor the course of events and ensure that Iran cannot use this as a respite.
As a result, the memorandum between the United States and Iran at this stage can only reduce tension, but there is no talk of a complete end to the conflict: there are too many unresolved issues between the parties. The risks of a resumption of the hot phase of conflict in the Middle East remain high, and a new round of escalation threatens to have much more devastating consequences not only for the region, but also for the entire global economy.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
