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The road will be fine: Moscow has threatened Helsinki with consequences for the UAV flight
Finland demanded that Ukraine not use its territory for attacks on the Russian Federation, the Russian embassy confirmed to Izvestia. At the same time, Helsinki is "understanding" about the methods of struggle used by Kiev. In this regard, Moscow called on Finland to be held accountable and warned of serious consequences in the case of the official provision of airspace to Ukrainian UAVs. About how Kiev is dragging NATO countries into a direct conflict with Moscow and what levers of pressure Russia has on the Europeans — in the Izvestia article.
UAV incidents in Europe
Ukrainian drones pose serious problems not only to the Baltic republics, but also to Finland. In a short period of time, about a dozen incidents of drones flying, falling or dangerously approaching were recorded on the territory of these countries. This led to an air raid alert, the resignation of senior officials, and harsh diplomatic statements between the Russian Federation and NATO.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service had previously warned that Ukraine could use the territories of the Baltic states to attack targets in the Russian Federation due to the shorter flight time of drones. Kiev is able to use Finland for the same purpose. According to Moscow, these states unofficially provide Ukraine with their airspace and create a special "corridor" through which the Ukrainian Armed Forces drones fly around the front zone to strike targets in northwestern Russia, in particular ports and refineries in the Leningrad region.
A soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepares a drone for flight
The head of the EU diplomatic service, Kaya Kallas, claims that the Baltic countries did not give permission for drone flights. At the same time, on May 26, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Lithuania to discuss the problem with drones. Helsinki also categorically denies any involvement in the implementation or planning of AFU operations related to strikes against northwestern Russia, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia.
"We record repeated mentions that representatives of the Finnish political leadership brought relevant signals to the attention of their "Ukrainian friends," the Russian Embassy said.
According to Defense Minister Antti Hyakkanen, the use of Finnish airspace to launch attacks on Russian territory is "completely prohibited." A similar statement was made by President Alexander Stubb.
Vilnius residents take shelter in an underground parking lot during an air raid alert issued by the authorities due to the threat of UAVs.
Nevertheless, the Finnish side warns citizens that "incidents with drones are likely to continue," the Russian diplomats added. In addition, Finland is talking about the "legality" and "validity" of Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russia, expressing "understanding" regarding the methods used by Kiev, the embassy said.
"Of course, such rhetoric does not help to reduce tensions, which have already increased due to the accelerated militarization of Finland and the intensive development of the country's territory by the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance," the diplomatic mission added. — We hope that Helsinki is aware of the sensitivity of the current situation and takes seriously the responsibility that the country has assumed by becoming a state of the "front line" of NATO.
In the current situation, there is a risk that Finland and the Baltic states are lying and still know about the Ukrainian tactics. It is possible that they may eventually officially give the green light to flights of Ukrainian drones.
An alert on the mobile phone screen: "Lithuanian military reports: danger in the air. Immediately take shelter in a shelter or a safe place, take care of your loved ones, and wait for further recommendations. We will inform you about the termination of the danger in a separate message."
"We proceed from the fact that the Finnish authorities are aware that such steps will have serious consequences," the Russian Embassy in Helsinki warned.
The Finnish leadership emphasizes: "the country does not face a direct military threat" due to the Ukrainian drones. At the same time, the situation shows that we are talking about serious risks for the population. On May 15, they reported on the danger of Ukrainian UAVs entering the densely populated metropolitan area, where approximately 1.8 million people live. The authorities urged residents to stay indoors, alerted units of the Air Force, Navy and border guards, and restrictions on air and sea transport were imposed near Helsinki, Russian diplomats said.
In addition, due to the increased frequency of drone incidents, Finland has announced urgent anti-drone exercises. The maneuvers will take place from May 27 to May 28 in the south-east of the country and in the waters of the Gulf of Finland with the involvement of aviation, navy and army units.
Journalists at the crash site of a drone in Estonia. A drone that entered Estonian airspace was shot down by the country's air defense forces.
Meanwhile, in Lithuania, on May 20, the highest level of air alert was announced due to the UAV. This is the first time this has happened in a country of the North Atlantic Alliance since the beginning of its history. In Estonia, on May 19, a NATO fighter jet shot down a Ukrainian drone in Estonian airspace for the first time in the country's history. On May 23, a fallen drone detonated in Lake Dridzis in southeastern Latvia. Earlier, there was an incident at an oil depot in Rezekne, after which Prime Minister Evika Silin resigned.
Why is it beneficial for Kiev
Politicians and the press in Western countries are convinced that Ukrainian drones are falling mainly due to Russia's intensive use of electronic warfare (EW), in particular GPS spoofing technology. We are talking about GPS signal substitution: when Ukrainian long-range drones fly deep into Russian territory (for example, towards the Leningrad region), electronic warfare systems can suppress real satellite signals and broadcast false ones. The power of this fake signal is significantly higher than the original one.
But this interpretation is at odds with the Russian position: Moscow considers European countries to be direct accomplices of the Ukrainian attacks. The authorities of the Baltic republics and Finland can coordinate the flights of Ukrainian drones over their territory, says Natalia Yeremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University. At the same time, not all of the elites could have been aware of certain agreements with the Ukrainian authorities — this explains the reasons why the leadership of the countries denies involvement in the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their territories.
Electronic warfare specialists of the Western Military District during combat work
— Most likely, there were certain kinds of agreements, for example, when it was necessary to launch targeted strikes against specific targets while guaranteeing security for the country through which the drones were flying. Moreover, they could promise to help escort the drones," Yeremina told Izvestia.
Northern Europe and the Baltic republics have become the frontier of confrontation with Russia, so it cannot be ruled out that they are testing a variety of methods and technologies of aggressive actions that are in the "gray zone", that is, below the threshold of a full-fledged military conflict with the Russian Federation, said Nikita Belukhin, a junior researcher at the Department of European Political Studies at the IMEMO RAS. He recalled that there are a large number of military startups or dual-use developments in these countries, where military artificial intelligence, robotics and various drone models are being developed.
Drone incidents generally play into the hands of Ukraine, which is interested in NATO and the EU directly entering the war with Russia, said Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to Yeremina, Ukraine has been trying to draw NATO countries into a conflict with the Russian Federation since the very beginning of its conflict. For Kiev, this will mean new financing and arms supplies, and the elites will be able to count on great career prospects, she added. At the same time, Brussels and Washington initially considered Ukraine as a country with which to wage a conflict with the Russian Federation without losses in their own ranks.
But if the Ukrainian side continues to actively use the territory of its European partners, this could lead to a serious escalation. Attacks on NATO bases, where Ukrainian Armed Forces specialists may be stationed, should be considered as a last resort — judging by official statements, both Moscow, Brussels and Washington want to avoid this scenario. Nevertheless, the Russian Federation can further strengthen its military presence and defense infrastructure in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions.
Training on bringing S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems into combat readiness in the Kaliningrad region
Meanwhile, Nikolai Mezhevich, head of the Center for Belarusian Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that economic measures to influence NATO's border countries have exhausted themselves. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland have long since reoriented their foreign trade to the EU countries.
Nevertheless, there are political levers, for example, the lowering of diplomatic relations. In addition, according to Yeremina, the Russian Federation can increase pressure on international platforms by providing concrete evidence of the involvement of certain countries in attacks on Russian territory. This will force the elites of states to explain to their populations the motives for such actions. Given that such steps are a path to direct confrontation with the Russian Federation, this may negatively affect the ratings of the ruling forces.
Relations between Russia and NATO countries are now at their lowest point since the collapse of the USSR. The current confrontation can escalate into a full-fledged conflict at any moment. Drone incidents may just be the trigger that will trigger a dangerous chain reaction. Therefore, it is now more important than ever that communication channels remain open between the security forces of Russia and the bordering NATO countries. For example, Norway had previously confirmed contacts with the Russian side in order to avoid escalation.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
