Chance or provocation: where did Ukrainian drones come from in the Baltic States
In recent days, attack drones have been regularly flying into the Baltic countries. The most painful arrival in Estonia is at an operating power plant. The authorities of the three countries recognize that these are Ukrainian drones. The main question is how exactly the UAVs ended up in the region. It is believed that they either lost their course, or Kiev deliberately launched them through the Baltic countries. Izvestia figured out the situation.
Explosions in a dream
At the end of March, the Russian authorities announced several attacks on infrastructure in the Leningrad region. For example, on March 23, the governor of the region, Alexander Drozdenko, announced that 35 UAVs had been eliminated during the repulse of the raid. Two days later, he said that 56 drones had been shot down.
In all three Baltic countries, drone strikes were recorded on the same days. In Lithuania, the device crashed and exploded on the ice of Lake Lavisas near the border with Belarus.
"We say with confidence that the drone that crossed our airspace and flew into the Varensky district was Ukrainian," Prime Minister Inga Ruginene stressed.
In Latvia, a drone crashed near the city of Kraslava in the south-east of the country, also near the border with Belarus. Residents of the neighboring village of Svarini said that they woke up at night from a loud sound similar to the explosion of a gas cylinder. It is noted that no one was killed, there is no damage, although army, police and border units are stationed near the crash site.
The most serious incident occurred in Estonia, where a UAV crashed into a pipe of an operating power plant in the town of Auvere near Narva. The Director General of the security police, Margot Palloson, also stated that the drone was Ukrainian. According to him, other drones violated the republic's airspace, and therefore NATO aircraft was involved in patrolling.
A rift in the relationship
In all three countries, a lot of questions have arisen in connection with the incident. First, local air defense systems were criticized, which did not shoot down the incoming vehicles. Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas admitted that the radars purchased to detect such objects did not work. But his Estonian colleague Hanno Pevkur reported that Tallinn allegedly deliberately did not shoot down the drone in order to "not give Russia a reason to start a war."
Secondly, it turned out that the air threat warning systems were not working. Edwards Smiltents, a member of the Latvian Seimas, stressed that residents of border villages woke up to the sound of an explosion, and not from an air siren or a notification on their phone.
"Millions of euros were spent on these systems, but where did they go when they were so needed," he protested.
In Estonia, phone messages arrived, but only five hours after the power plant was destroyed. The notifications did not specify dangerous regions, nor did they say anything about ways to protect themselves. As a result, a serious panic began, and emergency services recorded a surge in calls from citizens. The country's General Staff later said that a "human error" had occurred, promising to fix it.
Thirdly, an awkward situation arose due to the fact that all these drones were of Ukrainian origin. The Baltic countries have been supporting the Kiev regime as much as possible for a long time — lobbying for arms supplies, financial assistance, and diplomatic assistance at the European Union level. And now, in response, they are receiving strikes on their own territory.
In such circumstances, in all three states, out of habit, they began to blame the Russian side for what had happened. The most characteristic episode occurred in Latvia, where the country's Foreign Ministry acknowledged the Ukrainian UAV flight, but handed the protest note to the charge d'affaires of Russia anyway, because Moscow allegedly creates "unpredictable risks in the field of air security."
Nevertheless, some alternative opinions have also emerged. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris said he was demanding an explanation from Kiev. According to him, Ukraine does not understand what even one drone strike means for a country living in peace.
"I am convinced that in all cases when they have information, they will provide it to us in a timely manner. Otherwise, trust may crack," the Lithuanian minister stressed.
Finally, there are many versions about how exactly the drones ended up in the region. The Balts themselves say that the UAVs allegedly went off course and flew off the territory of Russia under the influence of electronic warfare. On March 23 and 25, the Russian Defense Ministry did report the destruction of facilities over the western Russian regions bordering Latvia and Estonia, although Lithuania is far from them.
According to another version, Ukraine deliberately launched drones through the territory of the Baltic countries so that they would suddenly appear in the Leningrad region.
"Of course, he (Kiev. — Izvestia) He can secretly use the EU and NATO countries for his criminal interests. Our military is closely monitoring all the circumstances," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in this regard.
According to the third version, we are talking about a coordinated provocation by Ukraine and the Baltic countries.
Exposed to the blow
In the current situation, much depends on exactly how the drones got into the airspace, Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, emphasizes.
— It's one thing if they were blinded and lost their course under the influence of Russian electronic warfare. Another option is if they were flying through the region initially, in which case we may be talking about the complicity of the Baltic states in attacks on Russia. It cannot be ruled out that the Baltic airspace was used in the dark, that is, this is a provocation aimed at escalation in order to distract some of the Russian forces," he notes.
The expert adds that all three countries have put themselves at risk with their active support for Ukraine.
— They can no longer turn away from this path, because "countering Russian threats" has become one of the main tools for obtaining European financial assistance, especially in the context of the loss of income from transit and tourism from Russia and Belarus. Therefore, the Balts will continue their course of confrontation with Moscow and will continue to publicly support Ukraine. Although, it is possible that some kind of behind-the—scenes showdown with Kiev over the drone incident will still take place, the Izvestia interlocutor does not exclude.
In turn, Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, explains that the drones either accidentally ended up in the Baltic States, or flew through all three countries towards the Leningrad region.
— If the second option turns out to be correct, it means direct participation in the conflict on the side of Ukraine. I think Russia will have to react to this somehow. Our management will determine exactly how. But the fact remains that the movement of drones towards the Russian north has become widespread," he emphasizes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
