Sea of discord: Turkish law may lead to new escalation between Athens and Ankara
The new draft law on maritime jurisdictions, which was prepared by the Justice and Development Party of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may become the most serious test of Greek-Turkish relations. The document will unilaterally define Turkey's possessions in the Aegean, Black and Mediterranean Seas. Athens believes that such steps will negate the long-standing efforts to normalize the dialogue. Izvestia found out whether this could lead to an escalation.
Athens is worried
"All our islands have exactly the rights provided for by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, nothing more or less. The Aegean Sea, like all seas, can be a place of friendship and coexistence, but only if there are rules. And these rules are international law and maritime law," said Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias.
He "warned Turkey against revisionism amid another round of tension in the Aegean Sea," the Greek Reporter reports. This is an attempt by Ankara to challenge Athens' sovereignty and maritime rights in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Dendias' statements came amid reports that the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is preparing a bill officially defining the maritime jurisdictional zones of Turkey. In Greece, the authorities fear that this initiative will legitimize the "Blue Motherland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine in Turkey. Athens believes that this idea is aimed at redefining borders, and with its help, Turkey wants to take away other people's territories without legitimate grounds. Greece, according to local media, has all the necessary rights in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The new law will create a unified legal framework for the protection of the rights and interests of the Republic of Turkey in the Black, Aegean and Mediterranean Seas. In particular, the project involves securing a six-mile zone of territorial waters in the Aegean Sea, and establishing a 12-mile zone in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish president may also have the right to declare "special status marine zones" for fishing, environmental protection and other purposes.
This is the first comprehensive law in the last 44 years that systematizes the maritime jurisdictions of Turkey. For the first time, it legally establishes the status of straits in accordance with the Montreux Convention, as well as clarifies the legal regime of "gray zones", islands and rocks.
The document is planned to be presented in parliament after May 30, when celebrations on the occasion of Eid al-Adha will end in the country.
The fundamental doctrine
The Blue Homeland doctrine is a naval and geopolitical concept that Admiral Cem Gyurdeniz proposed in 2006 and was later actively promoted by Rear Admiral Jihat Yajji. According to this idea, Turkey has sovereign rights to vast maritime zones (about 462,000 square kilometers) in the Black, Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, including exclusive economic zones for gas, oil and fishing. Turkey has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and insists on the principles of "justice" rather than mechanical equidistance.
The doctrine is officially supported by the Justice and Development Party, seeing it as a way to strengthen Turkey's influence as a maritime power. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has previously stressed the importance of controlling the seas for world domination. "Whoever owns the seas owns the world," the Turkish leader declared.
The opposition, represented by the Republican People's Party, also shares this idea, but believes that it is necessary to act more gently. But some critics of the authorities believe that this concept provokes conflicts with Greece, Cyprus and the European Union as a whole. It is claimed that these steps lead to the creation of tension in the region, as Ankara sends ships to the disputed waters and draws maps where some Greek islands "do not affect" the borders.
Nevertheless, in 2024 it became known that the Turkish authorities had included the "Blue Motherland" doctrine in the country's school curriculum. In ninth grade geography lessons, students analyze the "importance of the characteristics of Turkey's location," including discussions of maps related to the "Blue Homeland." The program also presents Turkey's "justified struggle" against "demands that ignore its legitimate and geographical rights" in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean.
And in the tenth grade, students are told "the reasons why Turkey is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea" and what "its rights in international waters are today and in the future." This is causing outrage and concern in Greece.
There will be a reason for escalation
The fundamental difference between Ankara and Athens lies in the interpretation of international maritime law. Greece insists that the islands have full rights to the continental shelf and exclusive economic zone, as stipulated by the 1982 UN Convention. Turkey, which has not signed this document, claims the opposite: the archipelagos do not have their own maritime jurisdiction and are "located" on the Turkish continental shelf.
The tension between the sides is growing more and more. Last week, a Turkish missile boat approached the Panamanian-flagged Ocean Link cable vessel, which was laying fiber-optic cable between the Greek islands of Astypalea and Kos. The Turkish side stated that the vessel was in the zone of Turkish jurisdiction and should receive a work permit not from Athens, but from Ankara.
The incident was resolved after the intervention of the Greek frigate Adrias, which explained on the radio that Ocean Link was operating outside Turkish jurisdiction. However, Greek officials note: This is the fourth such episode since the beginning of 2026. The authorities of the Republic of Turkey have stepped up a campaign of "administrative harassment", insisting that any maritime activity east of the 25th meridian (which actually divides the Aegean Sea in half) should be sanctioned by Ankara.
Senior adviser to Turkish President Cagra Erhan insists that the new concept "does not represent steps towards escalating the conflict with Greece and Cyprus." However, the very fact that the Ministry of National Defense participated in the development of the document — at the military, technical, academic and legal levels — gives the bill a distinctly militaristic dimension.
MEPs from the Greek PASOK party have already demanded concrete actions from the European Commission to prevent the adoption of a bill "directly affecting the sovereign rights of Greece and Cyprus."
At the same time, Greece is increasing military cooperation with Israel in the framework of the Aegean Shield project. The deal includes the supply of a multi-level Achilles Shield air defense system worth €2.8 billion, the purchase of 36 PULS rocket artillery systems worth about $758 million, as well as the integration of Greek air defense systems with Israeli technologies. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias promised to "block the Aegean Sea from the ground." If the law in Turkey is adopted in its current form, a new point of instability will appear between Ankara and Athens.
It's not profitable for anyone
Turkey is indeed consistently strengthening itself in the Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea, Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, confirmed in an interview with Izvestia.
— Now there is a lot of noise about this draft law on maritime jurisdictions, under which Turkey wants to secure maritime territories, which, in general, are claimed not only by Turkey, — the expert explained.
She recalled that Recep Tayyip Erdogan once said that "our physical borders, meaning Turkey's borders, are different from the borders in our heart." And according to this principle, according to the interlocutor of the editorial board, the Turkish leadership lives and builds its foreign policy line.
— As for the draft law itself, firstly, it is under preparation and no one has seen the original text yet. And secondly, even without an official document, Turkey would consider all these agreed disputed territories to be its own, the political scientist is sure.
In this regard, Ankara rather seeks to somehow substantiate its ambitions and claims at the level of national legislation, since it cannot change anything within the framework of international law, the expert explained.
— There are relevant conventions and other documents. Turkey will refer to the document it designed, but it will also be recognized only by it," the analyst added.
As an example, Sbitneva recalled how Turkey justifies its cross-border military campaigns in the north of the country. In this matter, Ankara is still guided by the national pledge, a 1920 document according to which significant territories of modern Syria were to be ceded to Turkey.
Therefore, the adoption of the law by Turkey will not change the real situation, the expert stressed. However, two NATO allies will be on the verge of a clash. At the same time, Greece is also a member of the European Union, which Turkey has been unsuccessfully trying to join for many years.
— Naturally, this kind of potential conflict is not beneficial to either the military-political alliance or its parties. Turkey is currently, I suppose, not very comfortable with what is happening in neighboring Iran. In addition, a lot of resources have been spent in Syria in recent years, and threats from Israel have been heard. And Turkey may not mind a small victorious war, but it's as if this is not the case," the analyst concluded.
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