Enemy number one: Could a war break out between Turkey and Israel
The crisis in the Middle East has exposed the dangerous rivalry between West Jerusalem and Ankara. Everyone seemed to have gotten used to their verbal sparring. But now the parties have moved on. There are more and more publications in the local media about a possible armed conflict between the countries. There are a lot of geopolitical contradictions between the countries: Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Palestine, Somalia. Both Turkey and Israel strive to become the main power in the region, therefore they see each other as a threat. Whether they will reach a military confrontation is in the Izvestia article.
They will take on Turkey
"After Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy, and it seeks to declare Turkey a new enemy," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke about the direct threat posed by West Jerusalem back in 2024. In his opinion, Israel "will not limit itself to Gaza," but sooner or later it will take on Turkey.
The Turkish leader himself is also threatening Israel with war. On April 13, he said that despite the cease-fire, Israel had forced 1.2 million Lebanese to leave their homes due to attacks on civilian settlements. "We must be strong to prevent Israel from doing this to Palestine. Just as we entered Libya and Karabakh, we can enter Israel. Nothing prevents us from doing this," Erdogan warned.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press conference in Ankara
Joe Kent, the former director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, also added fuel to the fire, saying that the US could withdraw from NATO in order to support Israel in a potential conflict with Turkey in Syria. All this makes a possible confrontation between Ankara and West Jerusalem more likely.
Refugees on the streets of Beirut
"It's a when, not an if." There will be a conflict, and Turkey will have to negotiate with Moscow and Beijing if it does not want to repeat the fate of many," Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Department of the Middle and Post—Soviet East at INION RAS, professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy at MGLU, said in an interview with Izvestia.
Trading on a schedule
Turkey and Israel are constantly harshly criticizing each other. The Turkish Foreign Ministry calls Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the "Hitler of our time," and the Israeli authorities consider President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a "paper tiger who runs into the realm of anti-Semitism."
In mid-April, the Istanbul Prosecutor General's Office charged 35 individuals, including Netanyahu, over an Israeli military operation against an international ship convoy trying to deliver humanitarian supplies to Gaza. In response, the head of the Israeli government accused the Turkish leader of helping the "terrorist Iranian regime," criticizing Erdogan's actions against the Kurdish population in Turkey.
An international convoy of ships with humanitarian cargo for Gaza departs from the port of Barcelona. August 31, 2025
— Erdogan's attitude towards Netanyahu and the Israeli Prime Minister's attitude towards the Turkish president is very negative. Erdogan is increasingly calling Israel a structure or network, which indicates Turkey's attitude towards Israel's statehood," Vladimir Avatkov explained.
At the same time, Israel is accused not only by representatives of the ruling elite, but also by the opposition. The statements come down to one thing: Israeli officials, who in Turkey are directly linked to the war in Gaza, have no right to accuse Ankara and lecture her.
The harsh statements of the authorities against Israel find their response in Turkish society. According to recent data from the Pew Research Center, more than a third of Turks consider Israel to be the main threat to their country, and 93% of citizens have a negative attitude towards this state.
A rally in support of Palestine in Istanbul. The year 2023
However, this does not prevent Turkey, which has stopped official trade with Israel, from continuing real sales with it. Joint Turkish-Israeli companies are also still operating in the world. In addition, there is a significant Jewish lobby in Turkey, so there is no need to talk about a complete gap between the countries. But the harsh rhetoric of the authorities remains.
A space for contradictions
The rivalry between Ankara and West Jerusalem existed before, but against the background of the war between the United States and Israel with Iran, it began to manifest itself more clearly. The Netanyahu-led government is seeking a scenario in which the Iranian authorities will be overthrown or weakened enough to cease to pose an existential threat to Israel. The country believes that a weak and unstable Tehran is easier to manage.
In Turkey, on the contrary, they fear chaos and a power vacuum in which the Kurds can achieve greater autonomy. Ankara considers the current regime in Tehran to be a "lesser evil." In addition, the republic fears that large migration flows may occur in the event of the overthrow of the government. The country is still experiencing the consequences of the Syrian migration crisis.
The interests of the parties also overlap in Syria, with the south of the country looking like the most obvious point of collision between Israel and Turkey.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in Ankara.February 4, 2025
Ankara is one of the key supporters of the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. After the change of power in Damascus, Turkey has been actively increasing its military presence and influence on Syrian territory, considering this republic as a zone of its vital interests in the context of the Kurdish issue.
Israel does not trust the new authorities in Damascus, believing that a decentralized Syria is easier to control. West Jerusalem prefers to pursue a policy of "active defense" by attacking military infrastructure in the south of the Arab republic and creating a "cordon sanitaire" near the Golan Heights.
Israeli military equipment near the buffer zone in the Golan Heights on the border with Syria
In addition to Syria, Somalia is becoming another zone of confrontation between the parties. At the end of December last year, Israel became the first country to recognize the independent State of Somaliland, which the international community considers part of Somalia.
Presidential elections in unrecognized Somaliland. The year 2024
Ankara maintains its largest overseas military base, TURKSOM, in Mogadishu and is actively investing in the infrastructure of the African country, supplying weapons there, and the Somali military is learning new skills from the Turkish. As part of their space program, the Turks are going to build their first spaceport in Somalia.
For the Republic of Turkey, this state is not just an ally, but a key military and economic foothold in Africa. Israel, through the mechanisms of the "Abraham Agreements", is actually creating a competitive center of influence in the strategically important Gulf of Aden. Israel's recognition of Somaliland effectively turns the Horn of Africa into a zone of direct confrontation between the two States.
The anti-Erdogan Alliance
Cyprus and the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean are becoming no less explosive. Israel is creating an anti—Turkish coalition together with Ankara's main enemies, Greece and Cyprus. The union began to form when the Leviathan gas field was discovered in the Mediterranean Sea. However, gradually cooperation began to develop in other areas.
At the end of last year, the parties considered creating a joint rapid reaction force to enhance military coordination between the states. We are talking about a military contingent of up to 2.5 thousand people: one thousand each from Greece and Israel, another 500 from Cyprus.
Military parade in honor of the Independence Day of Greece in Athens. March 25, 2026
Greece continues to increase its arms purchases from Israel. Athens has agreed to purchase 36 PULS missile systems for almost 700 million euros, and they plan to deploy them near the land and sea borders with Turkey. These systems are capable of delivering strategic strikes against important targets — for example, air bases, radar stations or power facilities — at a great distance.
Israel and Greece annually hold about 40 joint events, including exercises and intelligence sharing. In addition, the countries cooperate with Cyprus in the energy sector. One of the initiatives being discussed is to connect all three countries with a common electric grid using an underwater cable. Greece is already building a power transmission line between Crete and Cyprus. If Israel joins the project, the country will be connected to the European energy grid for the first time.
Ankara perceives the emerging triple alliance as an attempt to encircle from the south. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has already warned that such a policy "will lead to war."
Naval exercises of the Turkish troops "Blue Motherland"
The Republic of Turkey itself regularly conducts military exercises for both land and naval forces. Against this background, there are increasingly calls in the country to create a coalition that would be a counterweight to the American-Israeli alliance.
Turkey is trying to create an alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean with the participation of Libya and Italy. Ankara has also begun construction of its own 300-meter-long aircraft carrier, which should strengthen its navy.
Will they come from Cyprus or Syria
A number of sources predict that the attack on the Turkish Republic "will start from Cyprus." This, in particular, is reported by the Sabah newspaper. "Allegedly, after the Greek part of the island joins NATO, Ankara will automatically turn into an "occupier" on the territory of an alliance member and will be declared an enemy," the publication says.
At the same time, in the same article, journalists question a similar scenario, quoting a statement by Turkish Minister of National Defense Yasar Guler. He said that starting in 2028, for two years, the command of the key Multinational Reactionary force of NATO (ARF) will be transferred to Turkey, "the most powerful and making the greatest contribution to the forces of the alliance."
So the most likely scenario is a confrontation in Syria, where the interests of the two countries are increasingly diverging. "It's such a time bomb," the newspaper claims.
Will there be a war
The artificially created chaos in the Middle East and the involvement of Turkey, which has been striving for independence in recent years, is most beneficial to third parties, primarily the United States. This was stated by Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, in an interview with Izvestia.
— Washington has long been acting as such an arsonist and watching this flame flare up, trying to distance itself from the consequences. And the statement of [US President Donald] Trump's announcement of a possible withdrawal of the United States from NATO is a link in the same chain," the expert believes.
Orientalist Vladimir Avatkov drew attention to the same circumstance. In his opinion, the risk of confrontation between Turkey and Israel is higher than ever, especially against the background of the increasing distance of the United States from the North Atlantic Alliance.
"Given the expansion of confrontation in the Middle East, there may be significant negative consequences from the point of view of the security of the parties and a possible clash between Israel and Turkey," the expert said.
Bayraktar Kizilelma combat unmanned aircraft of the Turkish company Baykar at the SAHA EXPO 2024 defense industry exhibition
In recent years, the Republic of Turkey has significantly strengthened its military-industrial complex, largely at the expense of national production. However, this is still not enough for a full-scale confrontation, Sbitneva is sure.
— They are now trying to create a ring of fire near Turkey, a situation in which it will not be possible to remain neutral and not involved. Moreover, these provocations come from both outside and inside: Syria, the situation in Iran, and now attempts to pit Turkey and Israel against each other," the political scientist noted.
So far, Turkey has managed to avoid direct involvement in conflicts because it is not in its interests, but it is not known how the situation will develop further, the expert added. Given that Ankara is Moscow's partner in the Turkish Stream project and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, it is also unprofitable for Russia to destabilize Turkey. In addition, the Russian Federation is trying to build an interaction different from what it had with the West, that is, based on mutual interests.
A mock-up of the first power unit of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant
"Turkey is also showing interest in the non—Western world and no longer sees itself as exclusively part of the Western paradigm," Sbitneva said.
Russia has consistently advocated building a polycentric world and creating inclusive security that would take into account the interests of various parties, Avatkov added.
"It is obvious that the parties will form this very new security system through confrontation, if, of course, there is someone left to form it, taking into account the expansion of this very confrontational field," the expert warned.
In any case, until Turkey realizes that in the current realities some specific choice is needed, continuing its "multi-shark policy", the country will continue to "stumble over these machinations of the United States and the company," Sbitneva stressed.
Meanwhile, as political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov stated, it is quite difficult to imagine a military clash between a NATO member (Turkey) and a US strong ally (Israel).
"But that's if we keep in mind the classic frontal war against each other. But the option of getting bogged down in what is now called a proxy conflict in the Levant region no longer seems completely unthinkable," the expert concluded.
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