The finalist assessed the dynamics of the ruble in the second half of May

At the beginning of the second half of May, the dollar will decline and be in the range of 70-74 rubles, the euro will gain a foothold in the 83-86 rubles corridor, and yuan trading on the Moscow Exchange's currency section will be in the range of 10.50–11.00 rubles. Andrey Loboda, a member of the RASO and the expert council of the Association of Forex Dealers on the development of the over-the-counter financial market, told Izvestia on May 18.

On May 16, the Central Bank of Russia set the exchange rate of the American currency at 73.1 rubles, the European currency at 85.1 rubles, and the Chinese currency at 10.7 rubles. At the same time, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange, on May 18, the yuan is trading at 10.6 rubles.

"Oil revenue remains the main factor supporting the ruble. According to the Central Bank, in April, exporters increased sales by $14.9 billion mom, a volume capable of keeping the exchange rate in a strong zone for several more weeks, taking into account the standard time lag. A tight monetary policy additionally works in favor of the ruble, retaining capital within the country and maintaining the attractiveness of ruble instruments," the expert said.

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An additional strengthening factor is tight monetary policy, which keeps capital in the country and increases the attractiveness of ruble assets. Against this background, USDRUB futures have already updated the lows since February 2023, dropping to 72.58 rubles, which, according to the analyst, is an important technical and psychological level.

At the same time, Loboda draws attention to the factors of pressure on the ruble. Among them are the growth of foreign exchange purchases by the corporate sector, increased imports in the summer, as well as speculative demand for foreign currency at levels below 73 rubles per dollar.

From a technical point of view, the nearest significant goal of strengthening the ruble remains the level of 70 rubles per dollar, but achieving it will require maintaining the current oil momentum and stable geopolitical situation.

The expert warned that the strengthening of the ruble may be limited. Against the background of accelerating global inflation and rising demand for defensive assets, the current period of the ruble's strength may gradually exhaust itself by the beginning of the second half of the year.

As noted on May 13, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market dropped below 73 rubles, amounting to 72.975 rubles (-1.11%). This happened for the first time since February 19, 2023. In turn, the euro exchange rate decreased by 1.34% to 85.45 rubles.