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- The route has been reconfigured: The Northern Sea Route will be expanded as the interest of foreign investors grows
The route has been reconfigured: The Northern Sea Route will be expanded as the interest of foreign investors grows
Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has attracted even more attention from foreign countries. It is already planned to expand through integration with river, rail and road transportation, the head of the Ministry of Transport Andrey Nikitin told Izvestia. In particular, the Arctic ports will be connected to large Siberian rivers. Thus, new logistics chains will increase transportation volumes and tap into the entire export potential of Siberia, experts say. Whether the ambitious project will be implemented and which countries are showing interest in the NSR can be found in the Izvestia article.
Which countries are interested in the NSR
Given the unstable situation in the Middle East, global players are increasingly looking for alternative trade routes, and the Northern Sea Route, a shipping route running through the Arctic Ocean along the Arctic coast of Russia, is of particular interest.
Dudinka Seaport
Firstly, demand is driven by its length — logistics through the NSR is almost 40% shorter than the route through the Suez Canal (14.2 thousand km instead of 23.2 thousand km), which significantly reduces fuel costs and travel time — it is reduced by 15-20 days, that is, almost twice. Against the background of the deteriorating situation with the safety of cargo delivery in the Middle East, the attractiveness of the Arctic route is growing, Andrei Nikitin, the head of the Ministry of Transport, told Izvestia.
— The development of the Northern Sea Route and the Transarctic Transport Corridor as a whole is of great interest to foreign participants. In conditions of geopolitical instability, the NSR is becoming one of the safest and most efficient transport corridors," the minister said.
Earlier, the Ministry of Regional Development reported that a number of foreign investors from China, India and the UAE are ready to invest in the development of Arctic production projects and the port infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route. It is known that the route has already been synchronized with the Chinese Polar Silk Road, which is part of China's "One Belt, One Road" global strategy. New Delhi and Abu Dhabi are also interested in integrating into these global logistics corridors. During summer navigation, the route is used for cargo from China, Japan, and South Korea to ports in Russia and Northern Europe. The demand of these countries for an increase in the volume of transportation along the NSR may grow, added Mikhail Dyakonov, CEO and founder of the Freight Logistics Group logistics company.
However, the practical interest of foreign players will depend not on geopolitical rhetoric, but on other factors: the availability of regular service and reasonable prices, Artem Valeev, CEO of the FCS-Service group of companies, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia. In this regard, the NSR has an unresolved key problem — limited navigation due to ice. Most of the shipments are delivered from August to October, which is only a quarter of the year, and even in this short period, the weather changes dramatically.
For this purpose, Rosatom is developing a year-round navigation model, which involves the use of expensive high-ice-class vessels; additionally, they will be assisted by nuclear icebreakers. The construction of such vessels is expensive and time—consuming, but it will help dramatically increase cargo traffic. In 2023, the head of the Ministry of the Far East Development, Alexei Chekunkov, said that Russia lacked icebreakers and its own production facilities for the further development of the NSR.
Currently, the Russian Arctic fleet includes eight nuclear icebreakers. Taking into account the diesel‑electric vessels, the total icebreaking group is 43 units, Andrey Nikitin recalled.
— To ensure the planned cargo flow, the development of the port infrastructure and the icebreaking fleet continues: the construction of the nuclear icebreaker Stalingrad has begun, and by 2030 the total number of nuclear icebreakers should reach 11 units, — says the minister.
The ceremony of the start of construction of the Russian serial universal nuclear icebreaker "Stalingrad" project 22220 at the Baltic Shipyard
According to the plan, cargo traffic on the NSR should reach 70-109 million tons by 2030. However, due to the sanctions and the ambitious nature of the project, in 2025, the volume of traffic along the route has so far amounted to only 37.02 million tons. Obviously, these figures are unlikely to be achieved at this rate. In addition to the accelerated construction of the icebreaker fleet, the expansion of the NSR's internal arteries will also help increase cargo flow.
How they want to expand the Northern Sea Route
In the future, the Northern Sea Route is planned to be scaled up to include river, railway and road transportation, said Andrey Nikitin.
— From the traditional sea route from the Kara Gate to the Bering Strait, it (the Northern Sea Route. It is being transformed into an integrated transport system with the integration of rail, river and road transportation. This multimodal approach creates a unified logistics chain, increases the reliability of supplies and expands the possibilities of cargo transportation in the Arctic region," the minister noted.
On the map, the extension will look like this: The Arctic ports of Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Naryan-Mar, Dikson, Pevek, and Anadyr will be connected to Siberian rivers, which will carry goods from deep within the territory of the Russian Federation. This creates continuous logistics chains from highways and railways through the basins of the Yenisei, Lena and Ob rivers to the Arctic Ocean, Mikhail Dyakonov explained to Izvestia. In Yakutia, for example, a multimodal route Mohe (China) – Jalinda – Nizhny Bestyakh – Lena River – Naiba Port – Transarctic Transport Corridor is being developed.
— The logic is to integrate the NSR into a single network of northern corridors, where the offshore section becomes the main external arm, and internal delivery goes by river, railway and motor transport. It is this model that potentially gives Russia a much greater effect than a simple increase in the number of passages along the Arctic highway," said Kirlan Marcel, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, in a conversation with Izvestia.
If the Siberian rivers are included in the route, this will give a huge impetus to the development of the economy of the entire region and, most importantly, will lead to an increase in freight traffic along the NSR, said the editor-in-chief of the analytical journal Geoenergetics. Info" Boris Martsinkevich. For example, new woodworking plants may appear in the mouths of rivers along which timber can be floated. From Omsk and Tomsk regions, where agricultural production is growing, it would be logical to start exporting wheat on a large scale. The development of coal deposits, which are currently not used by anyone, will also be used. However, the main problem along the way is the shortage of river transport and construction plants.
— Our river fleet practically disappeared in the 1990s. At least we need to raise it. These are river tankers, barges and tractors. Those construction plants that were on the Siberian rivers are closed. We'll have to rebuild from scratch," he added.
The expansion of the NSR will require significant capital investments, so the implementation of the project in practice will not be easy, experts say. They believe that the initiative is generally realistic, but with a horizon of about 10 years and subject to the allocation of substantial funding. The main burden is likely to be borne by the state, since the NSR is included in the national project "Efficient Transport System" as one of nine federal projects, however, without the participation of private business, including foreign investors, the process may slow down significantly.
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