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- To reach the threshold: the price of CTP for novice drivers jumped above 25 thousand.
To reach the threshold: the price of CTP for novice drivers jumped above 25 thousand.
The average cost of a CTP policy for novice drivers increased by 17% over the year and reached 25.3 thousand rubles. For emergency customers, this figure turned out to be comparable — at the beginning of the year, insurance already cost them an average of 32.4 thousand rubles, according to data from an online service for motorists. This is due to changes in the Central Bank — the regulator has expanded the boundaries in which insurers have the right to set the CTP price. However, these limits are still not enough — the fair value for newcomers and emergency customers should be even higher, according to the market. Why industry representatives are calling for free pricing in the segment of compulsory car insurance and what will affect the cost of policies — in the Izvestia article.
Why the price of CTP has increased dramatically for some drivers
In the first quarter of 2026, the average price of an annual policy for beginners reached 25.3 thousand rubles, according to data from the analytical insurance marketplace. bip.ru (an online service that helps to compare the cost of CTP policies from licensed companies). The data of 2.8 million users was analyzed there. It has increased by 17% over the year. The service assigned drivers with a bonus-malus coefficient (KBM) of 1.17 to this category. It depends on the frequency of the car owner's accidents.
The cost of the CTP policy in Russia is calculated according to the formula of the Central Bank. The regulator also defines the boundaries of the tariff corridor — the base rate range, within which insurers set the price individually for each driver. Currently, for passenger cars of individuals, it ranges from 1,399 to 8,665 rubles. The total cost of the policy is formed by multiplying this rate by a number of coefficients. The region of registration of the car (CT), engine power (KM), age and length of service of the driver (FAC), the number of persons allowed to drive (CO), as well as a bonus malus, which increases or decreases the price depending on the accident rate, are taken into account. The cost of a policy for a careful driver can be several times lower than for an emergency driver.
The average CTP price for emergency drivers (CBM from 1.76 to 3.92) jumped by 15% over the year and reached 32.4 thousand rubles in the first three months of 2026, and the "open" policy with the "multi-drive" option reached 45.9 thousand. bip.ru .
The main reason for the cost increase, which outstrips inflation, was the expansion of the Central Bank's tariff corridor in December last year, said Kirill Matanov, an analyst at the service. He recalled that the regulator has moved the boundaries of the base tariff for passenger cars by 15% in both directions. After that, insurers gradually began to send more and more offers with an increased base rate, which leads to an increase in the price of policies.
— Young and inexperienced drivers have a statistically higher frequency of accidents, and for customers with a bad insurance history this is already a confirmed risk, so they were the first to feel the expansion of the corridor, — said Alexander Krainik, CEO of the financial marketplace "Compare".
In 2025, the average amount of payments increased by more than 20%, so companies are raising the tariff for drivers who are more likely to have accidents, Sovcombank Insurance said. According to "Compare", the average CTP price for drivers with KBM above 1.17 has also increased over the year, but slightly lower — by 10%. Moreover, the cost of the policy for all drivers as a whole also increased — by 8%, to 6.7 thousand.
Even for careful drivers, the overall price level cannot decrease, because inflation affects the underlying CTP economy, explained Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. Now the cost of spare parts, the average amount of payments, as well as the operating and legal costs of insurers continue to grow.
Another measure of the Central Bank also affected the price. In December, the regulator also increased the territorial coefficients for regions with a high level of fraud. For subjects from the "red zone" — Novosibirsk and Ingushetia — the values doubled. Due to this, the policy was most expensive for accident-free drivers in the Novosibirsk region this year, according to the data bip.ru .
They added: compared to the end of 2025, CTP for all drivers has risen the most in Novosibirsk, the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Kostroma Region.
Why do Careful Drivers still Pay for emergency drivers
The data from the beginning of the year paints an alarming picture for the two most problematic segments — novice drivers with zero experience and high quality of life, as well as for customers whose driving history consists of increasing insurance events and fines, said Alexander Shcherbakov, head of the OSAGO Methodology Department at MAKS IC.
According to him, in practice, every third novice drives into a pole or a car in front of them in the first six months. For emergency drivers, the situation is aggravated by repair inflation: spare parts have risen in price by tens of percent, and the frequency of requests from such customers for payments is several times higher than the average. The 15% increase here even lags behind the real increase in the insurer's spending on these drivers, he stressed.
Previously, the market distributed the costs of emergency drivers among all car owners — there was a so-called cross-subsidy, when careful drivers actually paid for more emergency ones. Since December, the price has become more fair, but this problem has not completely gone away. For about a third of policies (with BMI above 1.1), the current boundaries of the tariff corridor are not enough, the expert added.
The share of such subsidies is decreasing, but it has not completely disappeared, agreed Sergey Demidov, Vice President of Renaissance Insurance. The same applies to regional "anomalies," said Yuri Strekalov, Director of CTP Portfolio Development at Rosgosstrakh. Today, motorists from regions with normal unprofitability overpay for drivers from those regions of the Russian Federation where fraud, unfair actions by car lawyers and abuse of law are common.
Prosperous regions (for example, Moscow, Moscow Region, St. Petersburg) actually subsidize unprofitable ones. This is reinforced by strict tariff regulation: insurers can neither refuse to conclude a contract, nor fully take into account the individual risk of the client in the price, added Sergey Khudyakov, co-owner of insurance broker Mains.
As a result, according to him, there are examples when even for accident-free drivers in the capital, the cost of CTP in 2026 turned out to be twice as high as last year (with the same MSC). Such opacity undermines the credibility of the system, the expert believes.
What will happen to the CTP price next
Pavel Yakovlev, Director of the Retail Insurance Department at RESO-Garantia, is convinced that the cost of CTP should be fair. Insurers should set their own prices depending on the segment. High competition will regulate prices, as it happens in voluntary insurance.
— Fundamentally, the system requires a transition to a market mechanism and deeper liberalization. The point is to give insurers the opportunity to independently set the policy price based on the widest possible set of data about the driver and his risk profile," agreed Sergey Khudyakov.
In order to achieve fair pricing without cross-subsidization, it is necessary to allow insurers to take into account the widest possible set of factors affecting individual risk, Irina Frank believes. First of all, we are talking about the introduction of telematics devices or mobile applications that record driving style, mileage, time of car use and traffic violations.
Russia is already considering the possibility of launching pilot projects on pricing based on data on real driving style in the next year or two, the expert added. This will make it possible to set the price more accurately and, possibly, to restrain excessive growth for those beginners who demonstrate safe driving.
In general, the rise in the price of CTP policies for all groups of drivers is likely to continue, but at a more moderate pace, according to Alexander Krainik from Compare. Unless there is a sharp jump in the cost of repairs or changes in regulation, we can expect an increase of about 5-10% per year, Sergei Demidov believes. According to Alexander Shcherbakov from MAKS, for beginners in the next two years it may be about 8-10% per year.
He added: it is highly likely that the regulator will allow insurers to apply increased coefficients for gross violations (drunk driving, systematic creation of accidents). If such innovations are adopted, the policy for emergency drivers may rise in price by another quarter at a time.
According to experts, the cost for a particular driver will strongly depend on further decisions of the authorities — if Russia continues to expand the tariff corridor or introduces free pricing in CTP, then the policy will become more expensive for emergency drivers and become more fair for careful ones.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
