Profit and non-profit: sales of AI-92 gasoline in Russia have become unprofitable
The sale of AI-92 gasoline in Russia brings losses to gas stations — about 84 kopecks per liter. Whereas, in order to stay afloat, this level should be at least 1.1 rubles per 1 liter. This is stated in a study by OMT Consult. According to analysts, the largest profit at the gas station is now provided by the sale of diesel — an average of 3.68 rubles per 1 liter. Experts attribute the decrease in gasoline profitability primarily to high wholesale purchase prices, as well as significant volumes of AI-92 exports at the beginning of the year. At the same time, during the period of seasonal growth in demand for petroleum products, the market situation may change. What to expect for the fuel market this summer is in the Izvestia article.
How profitable is the fuel trade in Russia
Russian gas stations currently incur a loss of 84 kopecks when selling one liter of AI-92 gasoline. At the same time, the sale of a liter of AI-95 brings about 47 kopecks of profit, and diesel fuel — 3.68 rubles. This is stated in a study by OMT Consult, which was reviewed by Izvestia. Experts have analyzed the work of Russian retail chains since the beginning of the year: business margins, operating costs and profitability of sales.
Thus, the average margin level of gas station operation in Russia (the purchase price of fuel in wholesale minus the cost at the gas station) is: AI-92 — 7.5 rubles per 1 liter, AI-95 — 8.9 rubles, diesel — 12.1 rubles. According to experts, despite a fairly comfortable level of profitability, when calculating profitability, it is necessary to take into account operating costs at gas stations, which on average amounted to 8.4 rubles per 1 liter on all networks in Russia.
Thus, "today we see a fairly low level of profitability on the AI-95, negative on the AI-92 and sufficient on the DT," the document says.
According to the head of the company's motor fuel division, Ildar Timerianov, the key factor affecting the profitability of gas stations remains the high wholesale purchase price of fuel. According to him, the export component exerted additional pressure on the cost of the AI-92.
— According to market participants, exports of AI-92 in the first quarter, before the ban on exports for all market participants, amounted to about 1 million tons. For comparison, exports of AI-95 over the same period reached only 80 thousand tons," the expert noted.
In small-scale wholesale, the price of AI—92 increased by 8.8% from January to May, from 71,747 to 78,080 rubles per 1 ton. The cost of the AI-95 increased by 6.7%, from 78,639 to 83,926 rubles per 1 ton.
In general, retail market participants consider a comfortable level of net profit to be about 1.5 rubles per 1 liter, which is enough for stable operation and business development. Profits of over three rubles per liter already allow companies to switch to investment activities, the study says.
The average profitability in Russia today is 1.1 rubles per 1 liter, which allows retail chains to remain stable. However, in the season of high demand for petroleum products, the situation may change dramatically, analysts say.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to all major Russian oil companies.
The Ministry of Energy stated that the situation on the domestic motor fuel market remains stable and controlled.
— At the moment, the domestic market is provided with stocks of light petroleum products, the supply logistics is functioning steadily, there are no interruptions in the provision of regions. Fuel reserves are at a sufficient level and, if necessary, will be used to smooth out fluctuations in supply and demand. The industry is ready to go through a period of seasonal demand growth as planned," the agency's press service told Izvestia.
They added that this is also facilitated by the measures taken by the government: in particular, a temporary ban on the export of motor gasoline, as well as the continued restriction on the export of diesel for non-manufacturers.
What are the risks of the fuel market?
According to Ildar Timerianov, oil companies can redistribute production volumes in favor of those types of fuels that are more profitable to sell. Thus, in March, the production of AI-92 gasoline increased by 188 thousand tons, or by 10% compared to January. At the same time, the production of AI-95 decreased by 200 thousand tons, or 11%. At the same time, according to analysts, there is no shortage of AI-95 gasoline on the market.
— In average daily terms, there is no decrease in sales of the AI-95 compared to April. In addition, if necessary, companies can still increase June supply volumes. Besides, there have been no exports since April, so there shouldn't be any problems in the domestic market," he said.
In general, in the event of force majeure, such as unplanned refinery repairs, fuel shortages, rising purchase prices and logistical disruptions in the wholesale segment, many independent gas station chains may lose profitability for all types of fuel, OMT Consult experts remind.
Thus, in the period from March to October 2025, exchange wholesale prices increased by an average of more than 40% for gasoline and more than 30% for diesel fuel. According to analysts, this has led to a crisis at gas stations in many regions of the Russian Federation. In addition, in July–October last year, the market recorded disruptions in fuel sales at individual gas stations, Ildar Timerianov noted.
— According to the results of the analysis of this period, there has been a decrease in the number of gas stations selling gasoline at 600 sites, or 2.7% of all gas stations. At first glance, the indicator does not look critical for the market as a whole. However, for specific companies and regions, the closure of several hundred facilities can have tangible consequences. The biggest problems were concentrated among independent operators, which is explained by their lower resistance to price fluctuations and difficulties with logistics," the expert said.
According to him, regulators are currently trying to insure the market as much as possible against fuel shortages and rising prices.
— Taking into account a number of measures taken by the government, namely the restriction of exports from April 1 for all market participants, agreements between the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service and oil companies on the volume of fuel supplies to the domestic market, regulation of retail prices according to the projected inflation rate, as well as adjustments to exchange trading to reduce or increase wholesale prices during the trading session (introduced restrictions on price increases of no more than 0.01%) should stabilize the market of petroleum products in the Russian Federation during the high season," said Ildar Timerianov.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, despite the increase in retail fuel prices, stock prices for gasoline remained below last year's highs. So, in April 2026, the average price of AI-92 on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange was 65,594 rubles per 1 ton. For comparison, in October 2025, when the fuel retail industry was teetering on the edge of profitability, the average exchange price of the AI-92 reached 72,606 rubles per 1 ton.
What to expect from the fuel market in summer
In May and June 2026, stock prices for 92nd gasoline are likely to be near April levels, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
— In addition to the export ban, there will be an increase in payments on the damper, which last month exceeded 200 billion rubles for the first time in a long time. Taking into account the fact that world prices for gasoline and diesel remain high, subsidies for oil companies in May and June will also be close to April values, he noted.
In general, according to the expert, so far the situation looks like both fuel producers (due to increased subsidies) and gas stations (due to the comparative stability of prices in the wholesale market) will be able to earn.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, due to the scale of their activities, vertically integrated oil companies find it easier to ensure a balance between wholesale and retail prices, taking into account the transport component, and also to restrain retail from increasing even with rising stock prices. In addition, according to Ildar Timerianov, retail prices still have a margin of safety.
On average, the cost of AI-92 at gas stations has increased by 2.47% since the beginning of the year, for AI-95 — by 2.45%, for DT — by 1.64%, which is below the Central Bank's inflation rate of 5.7% as of April 20, 2026.
Based on these data, according to OMT Consult, the prospects for further growth in retail gasoline prices for May–December 2026 range at + 1.5 rubles per 1 liter, for diesel — around + 3 rubles.
According to the company, taking into account a number of measures taken by regulatory authorities in the fuel and energy sector this year, the situation in the season of high demand should be fairly stable. Additional support for the retail business, according to analysts, is provided by the development of related products and services at gas stations. Their share in the total revenue is approximately 3.7–4.1%.
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