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- Karman exchanges: market prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia increased by 10-14%
Karman exchanges: market prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia increased by 10-14%
The exchange price of fuel in Russia has increased by 10-14% since the beginning of March. According to industry experts, the domestic market is being affected by rising global prices for oil and petroleum products. In the last week alone, the export alternative index has grown by 15-20%. In addition, the seasonal factor is also important — preparations for sowing operations are beginning in Russia. Analysts do not rule out that regulators may increase the mandatory volume of oil supplies to the stock exchange: for gasoline — from 15% to 20%, for diesel — from 10% to 15%. At the same time, they believe that it is impractical to impose a complete ban on fuel exports so far, since there is no real shortage of goods on the market. Izvestia understood how the Middle East conflict affects the domestic market.
How fuel prices have changed in Russia
The cost of AI-92 on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange at the close of trading on March 13 was 65.19 thousand rubles per 1 ton, AI-95 — 68.95 thousand, and summer diesel — 63.45 thousand. Whereas on February 27, the 92nd cost 59.26 thousand rubles, the 95th — 62.68 thousand, and the diesel — 55.52 thousand rubles. Thus, since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, gasoline prices have increased by 10% and diesel prices by 14%.
According to Rosstat, in the first week of March, average fuel prices also increased: AI‑92 went up by 4 kopecks, AI‑95 — by 3 kopecks, AI-98 and higher — by 13 kopecks. Diesel, on the contrary, has fallen in price by 3 cents. On average, on March 10, the AI‑92 cost 63.48 rubles per liter, the AI‑95 cost 66.81 rubles, and the diesel cost 77.14 rubles.
At the end of February, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that the fuel situation in the Russian Federation is stable.
"Production volumes make it possible to ensure not only the demand that exists on the market, but also the accumulation of reserves in order to increase their volumes before the period of increased summer demand," the official said.
He recalled that on January 31, the government lifted the ban on gasoline exports for oil companies in order to avoid overstocking capacities. For non-producers, the ban on the export of gasoline, diesel and other fuels has been extended until the end of July.
According to Izvestia, a government meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister and oil companies and relevant ministries and departments was scheduled for March 10. According to the agenda (available to Izvestia), the work of the export ban mechanism for the medium term, the mandatory volume of fuel sales in the amount of 1% of production in the small wholesale segment, as well as changes in the parameters of the damper mechanism were to be discussed at the event.
Izvestia's sources in the industry said that the meeting was canceled due to a meeting on gas export issues held the day before. According to the interlocutors of the editorial office, President Vladimir Putin took part in it. The Deputy Prime Minister has not yet set a new date for a meeting on the fuel issue.
Why are gasoline and diesel prices rising?
According to experts, the cost of petroleum products in the domestic market has increased against the background of an increase in the cost of raw materials calculated according to the export alternative index, which takes into account quotes on the world market.
According to the information of the NAANS-MEDIA publication "Indicators of the Russian Oil market", the export alternative index based on Nizhnevartovsk amounted to 36.1 thousand rubles per 1 ton as of March 6, 2026. During the week, the index increased by 10.2 thousand rubles against the background of rising world prices and the strengthening of the dollar, the CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector clarified Tamara Safonova.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, noted that for gasoline, the index rose to the level of 84.5–89 rubles per 1 ton (based on the Baltic ports), which is 15-20% higher than the quotations on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX). Even taking into account the 25-33% increase in freight prices, the high global price of diesel makes exports extremely profitable. For gasoline, the parity is about 78-82 thousand rubles per 1 ton, which also stimulates exports, the expert told Izvestia.
As reported by Reuters with reference to calculations by LSEG, in the first decade of March 2026, the volume of shipments of Euro-5 diesel fuel from the Russian port of Primorsk (Baltic Sea) reached 630 thousand tons. This figure is 13% higher than the February level, when 560 thousand tons were shipped.
According to Tamara Safonova, the cost of petroleum products in the domestic market has increased against the background of rising prices for raw materials in Russia, which is calculated as an index of export alternatives and takes into account quotes on the world market.
In addition, as Valery Andrianov notes, the psychological factor plays a role.
— Large independent gas stations and industrial consumers see that the conflict in the Middle East is becoming protracted and therefore fear further increases in oil prices and netback on petroleum products. Therefore, they are trying to buy fuel for future use, which, with a limited supply, pushes the cost up. In addition, concerns about the possible reduction of the fuel damper could play a role, as its size is growing significantly due to rising prices and may negatively affect the budget. And although there is no official information about this, market participants are "winding themselves up" and, as a result, they are trying to stock up before possible changes begin," the expert noted.
He added that preparations for the sowing season are also starting now, and diesel prices are traditionally rising during this period.
— So far, this growth is within the annual spring price increase, which traditionally averages 15%. And the combination of seasonal peak and global instability creates the conditions for a "perfect storm." That is why diesel is rising in price faster than gasoline, although there is a fair surplus for it in Russia. Twice as much is produced as is consumed in the country," said Valery Andrianov.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy, as well as to all major oil companies.
What can the fuel market expect next
Regulators will not be able to influence the price reduction, but only take measures to prevent their further growth, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult. According to her, this may be an increase in the sales volume on the stock exchange, or the establishment of quotas for the export of diesel fuel.
In the current situation, Tamara Safonova believes that the regulator's participation may be necessary to curb prices in the domestic market, since by the end of March a significant gap is expected between the export and domestic cost of gasoline and diesel. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in payments from the budget through a subsidy mechanism in the form of a damper.
According to Valery Andrianov, the set of measures to respond to rising stock prices is well known and has been worked out for a long time.
— This is a possible increase in exchange sales standards. For example, for gasoline — from 15% to 20%, for diesel fuel — from 10% to 15%. As well as adjusting the damper and solving logistical problems, since it is the "bottlenecks" on the railway that create a local shortage in some regions and push prices up, the expert believes.
Also, according to him, the introduction of a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, including for its producers, is not advisable yet, since there is no shortage on the market.
Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, believes that operational adjustment of the damping mechanism is a key tool for stabilizing domestic prices.
— In the event of a sharp increase in the cost of exports, it is necessary to ensure timely payments to oil companies in order to maintain profitability parity in supplies to the domestic market. In addition, if necessary, it is possible to temporarily increase the standard of mandatory fuel sales on the stock exchange to reduce speculative volatility," the deputy noted.
According to him, the formation of sufficient stocks of goods from manufacturers and independent chains will also reduce price spikes. He believes that a complete ban on diesel exports is an extreme measure.
— It can have a short-term psychological effect, but it carries serious risks, such as loss of export earnings, non-fulfillment of foreign trade obligations, and a decrease in refinery utilization. Quoting is a more flexible tool, but it makes sense to use it only when there are signs of a physical shortage in the domestic market, as was the case with gasoline," said Yuri Stankevich.
In general, in his opinion, the impact of the Middle East conflict on Russian prices is indirect and largely psychological. And while maintaining the existing regulatory mechanisms, the risks of an increase in retail value remain limited.
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