The expert presented scenarios for the development of the situation in the Middle East

Nikolai Sukhov, a leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, presented four scenarios for the development of the situation in the Middle East.

In an interview with the Mail News on Wednesday, May 13, the specialist said that a quick military breakthrough or an early political agreement in the Middle East is not yet expected. According to him, after the exchange of blows and the unstable truce, the United States and Iran switched to more complex tactics of interaction. Sukhov noted that neither the United States nor Iran had gained a decisive advantage. Washington inflicted serious damage on Iran, but Tehran retained part of its missile potential, the controllability of the system and the ability to delay negotiations.

Sukhov identified four scenarios for the development of events in the Middle East. In his opinion, the most likely option is not a major war, but a prolonged state of contained conflict.

"The United States will increase pressure, demonstrate military readiness, escort ships, and expand sanctions and maritime restrictions. Iran will avoid a direct transition to a full—scale war, but will continue to show that it is capable of threatening shipping, the infrastructure of the Persian Gulf and American facilities in the region," the expert noted. Sukhov expressed the opinion that the current conflict between the United States and Iran remains dangerous due to the risk of accidental escalation.

According to him, one of the scenarios could be a limited escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, with attacks on tankers, ports, oil and gas facilities or American bases. This could exacerbate the crisis for the Gulf states and encourage them to support the United States.

Another option is a partial political settlement. Sukhov noted that the parties can agree on limiting attacks, restoring navigation and certain sanctions relief, but this will not become a full-fledged peace.

The expert called the internal crisis in Iran the fourth scenario. In his opinion, economic pressure and military losses may intensify the struggle between supporters of negotiations and hardliners, which will complicate the diplomatic process.

War for peace: Iran and the United States are closer to resuming hostilities

Are there any chances for a diplomatic settlement

The day before, US President Donald Trump declared the US's readiness only for a "good deal" with Iran. According to him, the agreement should be beneficial for the United States. The statement was made before the president's flight to China, clarifies Life.ru .

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on May 11 that the 14-point conflict settlement plan proposed by Tehran with the United States remains the only working option, and other approaches, in his opinion, will not yield results. In his opinion, the longer the United States delays the process, the more expensive it will cost American taxpayers, IA Regnum reports.

On the same day, Trump decided to reject Iran's response to the draft agreement with the United States. Trump also said that he had discussed the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 360.ru .

Prior to that, on May 6, the United States handed over a 14-point plan to Iran, after which Tehran sent its response, RT writes. The Iranian side stressed the importance of ending the war and ensuring the safety of navigation in the region, the website writes. kp.ru .