War for peace: Iran and the United States are closer to resuming hostilities

Iran and the United States are one step away from resuming the war. Tehran is threatening to increase uranium enrichment to 90%, a level sufficient to create nuclear weapons. Donald Trump, who has already rejected Iran's peace plan twice, regularly declares that the Islamic Republic should not get an atomic bomb. Experts say that negotiations and a settlement are still possible, but Iran will insist on fulfilling all its conditions, even if a new round of conflict begins.

Iran's nuclear program

The American media is increasingly warning that Donald Trump is becoming disillusioned with the effectiveness of negotiations with Iran and is seriously considering the possibility of resuming major military operations against it. Belligerent voices are also heard in Tehran. If the United States resumes attacks, Iran will increase uranium enrichment to 90%, warned Ibrahim Rezai, an official representative of the parliament's foreign policy and National Security committee. According to him, this is one of the possible actions in response to aggression and this issue is planned to be considered in parliament.

In 2025, Iran had about 408.6 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. Separately, the IAEA reported that particles enriched to 83.7% were found in Fordo in 2023. But these are only individual samples, and not the stable production level declared by Iran. The time to reach the 90% target depends on the source material, the number of centrifuges and access to warehouses. But with 60% uranium already accumulated, the last leap to 90% can be very short.

The IAEA called 60% enrichment a step towards weapons-grade levels. And in 2025, after the Israeli attacks on the republic, the head of the organization, Rafael Grossi, said that Iran could resume enrichment within a few months. However, the creation of nuclear weapons is a completely different stage. It is necessary not only to obtain weapons material, but also to assemble a warhead. Before the 2025 strikes, US intelligence agencies estimated the time frame for Iran to assemble nuclear weapons at three to six months, after the strikes - from nine months to a year.

Official Tehran insists that the Iranian nuclear program is exclusively peaceful, and the assessments of the United States and Israel are just speculation. Currently, there are no signs that the republic is ready to put significant efforts on the nuclear track, orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. In addition, the appearance of such weapons in Iran will provoke a regional arms race and a new round of militarization of the Persian Gulf countries, which Tehran does not want, the expert stressed.

— Iran considers a hypothetical nuclear arsenal as a deterrent and will use it last if the threat against it is of an existential nature. This approach takes into account both the position of the theological community and the security forces," the orientalist said.

Positions of Iran and the United States

Meanwhile, the risks of conflict escalation are increasing. On May 3, Iran handed over to the American side a 14-point peace plan, which included the unfreezing of the republic's assets abroad, the lifting of sanctions, the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the creation of a new shipping mechanism, guarantees for ending the war, the payment of reparations and the withdrawal of the US armed forces from the region. Tehran has given Washington 30 days to resolve key issues. Donald Trump called the demands unacceptable. Moreover, the republic even agreed to include its nuclear program in the agenda of the negotiations.

In response to the US refusal, Tehran proposed a new plan on May 10. According to media reports, he is focused solely on ending hostilities in the region. The initiative is considered as a temporary measure while the parties discuss the full deal. But even this did not suit Trump, who declared that there was no truce as such anymore.

The United States insists that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. According to media reports, Washington is already preparing for a new strike to put pressure on Iran. The United States is planning to bomb 25% of the targets that the military has designated but not yet hit.

According to American scholar Malek Dudakov, escalation should not be expected in the coming days, given that Trump is scheduled to visit China, where the American leader will persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to influence Iran.

Trump's state visit to China is scheduled for May 13-15. At the same time, China has its own peace plan, drawn up jointly with Pakistan. It was presented back on March 31. It presupposes an immediate cessation of hostilities, the early start of negotiations, ensuring the safety of non-military targets, guaranteeing the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, relying on the UN Charter and international law as the basis for a peace agreement.

"When Trump returns from China and it becomes clear that China is not helping him in any way, then an escalation scenario is possible," Dudakov added. — Another thing is that it will have extremely negative consequences for the United States.

According to him, the United States is running out of arsenals of missiles and especially ammunition for air defense systems — Washington will have to start a new round of war with a shortage of weapons. In addition, the topic of confrontation with Iran is extremely unpopular in American society. More than 70% of residents are in favor of a cessation of hostilities and a truce without preconditions. The resumption of strikes will actually finish off Trump's rating, which will affect the results of the Republican Party in the midterm congressional elections in November.

— The war with Iran is hitting the U.S. economy hard, where fuel prices have doubled. Trump found himself in a dead end situation, in chess this is called a "zugzwang", where any move worsens the situation, Dudakov notes.

The chances of success of diplomacy

Sergei Tolkachev, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that there is a chance for a peaceful agreement. According to him, the important role here is not so much Trump, but rather the forces that stand behind him — part of the US elite, which has a plan for the reindustrialization of America.

— For this, they need cheap oil in the country, and expensive oil in the rest of the world, especially in Europe and China. If it is possible to reach an agreement with Iran on these issues as a result of non—public negotiations, then a peace deal is possible," Tolkachev said.

Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, also believes that the United States and Iran are interested in continuing negotiations. According to him, Trump needs such an exit to declare his victory. Iran, on the other hand, cannot fight indefinitely, so negotiations are inevitable, the expert stressed.

Escalation is also likely, as Iran is acting in an all-or-nothing position, the analyst notes. If he even partially agrees with the requirements that are presented to him, he will incur an unlimited amount of risks and will not receive security guarantees. The republic's political elites are ready for the resumption of hostilities and for the sanctions to be extended, Lukyanov notes.

The settlement of this conflict will be the main topic of the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting on May 14-15 in New Delhi. It is expected that the countries of the group will present a united front against the actions of the United States and Israel. The main discussion of peace initiatives at the highest level is scheduled for September 12-13, when the 18th BRICS Summit will be held.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was and remains ready to take enriched uranium from Iran. According to the Russian leader, initially everyone agreed with this, but then the United States toughened its position, demanding export only to its territory. In response, Iran has toughened its position, saying it refuses to send uranium anywhere.

Putin noted that in 2015, the export of enriched uranium from Iran formed the basis for the conclusion of an agreement between all interested countries and Iran, that is, it played a positive role.