Clan to clan: why did Trump need two families for one Libya
The United States is preparing a deal that could reshape the oil map of North Africa. The Donald Trump administration has decided to unite Libya, which has been divided into parts by the civil war that has been going on for more than 15 years. The plan is based not on democratic elections, but on a clan pact: power in the country is proposed to be divided between two influential families. The peacekeeping initiative hides a tough business calculation: Washington is seeking to get rid of the Russian presence in the country and establish control over resources, where influential American companies have already hastened to gain a foothold. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Trump's Plan
"The United States is developing an agreement to unite oil-rich Libya around the two most influential families of the country against the background of how the American—Israeli war against Iran is paralyzing global energy flows," the Middle East Eye newspaper reports, citing its sources. At the same time, as it is specified, the local population does not support this plan.
The United States began working on this initiative under former President Joseph Biden, but it has received a new impetus under Donald Trump. The current American administration is ready to discuss unblocking billions of dollars' worth of frozen Libyan assets and concluding business deals, which greatly facilitates negotiations.
"This is a government—wide initiative aimed at making Libya accessible to American oil companies and creating opportunities for Libyans," the newspaper quoted one of the American officials as saying.
The American leader entrusted the settlement of the process to his special representative for Africa, Massad Boulos. The Libyan oil minister visited Washington last week.
"You can make a lot of money exploring new oil fields. The Americans are very interested in all this, especially now, in the context of the war in Iran," said Riccardo Fabiani, director for North Africa at the International Crisis Group.
The commander of the Libyan militia, General Khalifa Hafter
According to the plan of the Donald Trump administration, the unification of Libya should take place through the reconciliation of two influential families in the country — the Taliban, which controls most of the west of Libya with Tripoli as its capital, and Haftar, which controls the east of the country.
The post of prime minister should be occupied by the reputable Libyan politician Ibrahim Dbeiba, the cousin of the current Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeiba. Saddam Haftar, the 35-year—old son of General Khalifa Haftar, may become president of Libya.
Ibrahim Dbeiba and Boulos established close contacts during discussions on unblocking frozen Libyan assets. And Saddam Haftar met with the deputy director of the CIA during his visit to Washington last year.
Family versus family
Since 2011, the civil war has been going on in Libya, the country is actually divided into two parts: there is an internationally recognized government in Tripoli, which focuses on Turkey and the West, and in the east there is a government led by Khalifa Haftar, which has established good relations with Russia, Egypt and the UAE.
Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa — about 48.4 billion barrels, which is the 19th largest in the world. In addition, the country is actively exploring new deposits — there are about 18 billion barrels of shale oil and tens of trillions of cubic meters of gas in the Libyan sedimentary basins.
— Before the overthrow of leader Muammar Gaddafi, Libya occupied approximately the 12th place in terms of oil exports in the world, producing about 1.6 million barrels per day. For comparison, the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates on the coast of the Gulf of Oman of the Indian Ocean allows the Emirates to ship about 1.8 million barrels per day now," Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post—Soviet East of the INION RAS, said in an interview with Izvestia.
With supply disruptions from Iran and across the Red Sea, Libyan hydrocarbons are becoming critically important to Western countries. According to the National Oil Corporation of Libya, revenue in April from oil sales reached $2.9 billion— which is three times more than at the beginning of the year.
However, some experts believe that these figures are rather arbitrary due to the opaque activities of the authorities. In their opinion, the war in Iran "has not significantly changed the investment landscape" in the country.
"If the United States and its allies believe that Libya will be able to compensate for the loss of oil volumes due to what is happening in the Persian Gulf, they will be disappointed," says Jason Pak, founder of Libya-Analysis and author of the book Libya and the Global Ongoing Disorder.
He compares the current situation with the one that arose in 2022, when many countries believed that Libya could replace Russia as a gas supplier to Europe.
"But the Libyans did not succeed, and they will not succeed now. The idea that Libya can supply large amounts of oil in a short period of time while the war with Iran is going on is comical," the expert emphasizes.
Like a bone in the throat
Haftar's close cooperation with Russia prevents Western corporations from quietly developing oil and gas fields. However, the Americans are trying to knock Russia out of Africa not only because of energy resources, said political analyst Danila Krylov.
— There is a Russian military base in the south of Libya, which has supply issues. We cannot agree with Sudan on the control of Port Sudan and the creation of a naval base there, which would provide supplies to the group similar to the base in Tartus. We cannot come to an agreement with Egypt, because, according to the constitution, the deployment of foreign military bases in the country is prohibited," the expert recalls.
According to him, it remains to supply the Afrika Korps of the Russian Ministry of Defense through the eastern part of Libya. For the Americans, this corps is "like a bone in their throat, and by knocking it out of Libya, disrupting the entire control system, they will not even open up an opportunity for themselves, but expand the potential for the French."
Access to the Libyan subsoil
Currently, the United States has thrown its efforts to gain access to Libyan energy resources. In this matter, they rely on economic expansion: in February, Chevron received a license to explore fields in the Sirte basin in Libya, and in August, Exxon Mobil signed a memorandum with the National Oil Corporation on returning to the Libyan market.
At the same time, Italian Eni and Spanish Repsol are increasing drilling, aiming to increase production to 2 million barrels per day by 2030.
Western players are investing in their infrastructure, but they are doing so very cautiously because of the political risks. Eni is building Structures A&E, an $8 billion project that is expected to be completed by the end of 2027. Repsol is increasing production at the El Sharara field by introducing new technologies.
However, the long-term conflict has led to the destruction of a significant part of the country's oil and gas infrastructure, inherited from the time of Muammar Gaddafi.
Huge investments are required to restore and modernize the industry, as well as to achieve the ambitious production target of 2 million barrels per day. According to various estimates, it is necessary to attract from $3 billion to $4 billion annually. These funds will be used primarily for the restoration of destroyed facilities, the optimization of production in old fields and the exploration of new ones. Modernization may take from five to seven years, provided there is no political stability yet.
Hardly possible
There is no talk of a convergence of positions yet, but small successes have nevertheless been achieved. In early April, the Central Bank of Libya announced the adoption of the country's first single budget in a long time. Last month, eastern and western Libyan forces conducted joint exercises in Sirte as part of the US-led Flintlock military exercises.
For the reunification of the country, the parties need to agree on electoral legislation and the distribution of power. Due to these disagreements, the country has postponed general elections more than once. In addition, it is necessary to create unified institutions, while now there are parallel government structures in the country.
The opening ceremony of the Flintlock 2026 exercises in Sirte, Libya
In addition to the two centers in the west and east, the southern regions of the country are heavily influenced by local tribes, which periodically come into confrontation with the central authorities.
Many influential families in the country, as well as the Supreme Mufti of Libya, Sadiq al-Ghariani, oppose the unification of Bbeiba and Haftar. Things are not so smooth within the clans themselves either. "Neither the Dbeiba family nor the Haftar family are a single entity right now," said Jalal Harchaiu, an expert on Libya at the Royal United Services Institute.
The probability of uniting two families under the leadership of the United States is extremely low, Danila Krylov is convinced. The expert sees the American initiative as a utopia.
— Besides, there are questions: do the Americans fully understand the specifics of inter-clan cooperation in Libya? Does anyone in the region and the world understand it at all? I wouldn't count on it much. But the US will try. However, no one will be better off from this, so most likely we will get another conflict zone in addition to the existing ones," the analyst concludes.
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