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- Spare airfield: the West reported about Russia's plans to gain a foothold in southern Libya
Spare airfield: the West reported about Russia's plans to gain a foothold in southern Libya
Western media report on Russia's attempts to strengthen its positions in southern Libya. In particular, they are talking about the possible modernization of the southern Maaten al-Sarra airbase, located on the border with Chad and Sudan. The publications report that Moscow considers Libya as an important point for supplying the Sahel countries. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
The move of the horse
"The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has forced the Kremlin to reconsider its strategic goals in the Mediterranean and Africa. According to experts, after its stronghold in Syria was jeopardized, Russia is shifting its attention to Libya as a potential new base of operations," the Military Africa article says.
The publication notes that Russian military personnel have allegedly been flying more from Syria to Libya recently as "Russian officials and displaced Syrian allies seek refuge and alternative locations for their naval assets." Citing satellite data, it is reported that Russia is building and expanding logistics bases in southern Libya, near the borders of Sudan and Chad.
Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar
Moscow is building relations with Libya, the publication claims, through Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA).
"In May 2024, Russian Federation activity was recorded at ten sites in Libya, including the port of Tobruk, where military equipment was delivered in February and April. It is noted that in February last year there were about 800 Russian servicemen in Libya, and by May their number increased to 1.8 thousand. Since mid-December, Russian planes have been flying daily from the Syrian base Khmeimim to Libya," the article claimed.
In mid-December, citing Libyan and U.S. officials, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia had allegedly transferred radars and defense systems, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries, from Syria to Libya.
The publication also said that in January, Khalifa Haftar gave Russian forces control of the Maaten al-Sarra airbase near the Chad-Sudan border. It is noted that in the 1980s this base was used during the war between Chad and Libya, now it is allegedly being restored by the Russian military with the support of Syrians who fled the country.
It is also specified that the US tried to convince Haftar to deny Russia the use of the port of Tobruk.
"Infrastructure upgrades include rebuilding airstrips and warehouses to supply regions such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Sudan, a sign of Russia's growing influence in Africa," the article says.
Port of Tobruk
Russia currently operates four major air bases in Libya: al-Hadim (in the east), al-Jufra (in the center), Brak al-Shati (in the southwest) and al-Kardabiya (in Sirte).
"Libya can serve the same strategic purpose for Russia as Syria under Assad. Haftar provides Moscow with a means to challenge Western influence, exploit Libya's political fault lines and expand its influence in Africa," says analyst Emadeddin Badi of the Atlantic Council.
The Western expert admits that Russia may face more difficulties in Libya than in Syria, given that the political situation in the North African country is more complex, involving multiple factions and foreign powers. In addition, Libya does not have the same infrastructure as Tartus.
The strategic importance of the region
Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Institute of National Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, PhD in political science, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that information about Russia's possible plans to strengthen itself in Libya appeared as early as late December last year.
- Many Arab sources reported about it, referring to satellite photos of the transfer of the fleet from the port of Tartus to the port of Tobruk in Libya, so in this case we are talking, most likely, not about attempts, but about directed actions to strengthen Russia's presence in Africa," the political scientist believes.
In particular, he said, the case concerns the Maaten al-Sarra base. It is located in the south of Libya, about 100 kilometers from the border with Sudan and Chad. According to Arab media reports, a thousand-strong group of troops was supposed to be established there, along with another division of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Port of Tartous
The expert added that the place where the base is located is the Libya-Chad-Sudan triangle.
- First, the main road to Chad and Sudan is there. Secondly, a large number of Sudanese refugees are concentrated in this region, who are sheltering from the conflict. Thirdly, smuggling and illegal migration flows there," the orientalist pointed out.
According to him, the region is of strategic importance, it is also remote enough from the coast to be protected from possible strikes by Western forces.
Sudanese refugee camp
- One basic question arises," Krylov continued. - How will this base be supplied, given that the supply of goods by sea can be cut off at any time, and from any port - regardless of whether it is in the north, west or east of Libya - it is still necessary to get to this base, and practically across the country?
The analyst added that the country is conditionally divided into three parts: western, eastern and southern. The political struggle is now between the western and eastern territories, but the base is in the south. The south, in turn, is controlled either by individual tribes or by terrorists. Therefore, it is difficult to know the real state of affairs because of the lack of information, the political scientist said.
- The Russian Federation needs logistical centers, supply centers, and coordination of the entire group of troops in Africa. Why this particular zone? First, there is at least some infrastructure there. Secondly, it is far enough away from the coast to not greatly affect the balance of power in Libya. Thirdly, it is not the main oil fields and not the main oil refineries," the expert explained.
He believes that Libya is probably becoming a reserve airfield and logistical command center for Russia.
Response from the embassy
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gates," confirmed in a conversation with Izvestia that there have been a lot of reports recently about Russia's military activity in Libya.
- But we should not forget that all these reports were denied by the Russian ambassador to Libya Aidar Aganin, and we should proceed first of all from official statements," the expert noted.
The political analyst added that if we talk about an alternative to Syria and Syrian bases, Russia does not have many options.
- The first is Sudan, but there has been a civil war in Sudan for more than a year. All agreements regarding the use of Port Sudan as a logistics point for the logistics center of the Russian Navy are still vague and uncertain," the specialist believes.
Port Sudan
In his opinion, from this point of view, Libya is a more promising destination. Moscow has long had quite close contacts with Haftar.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin received him, which in general indicates Russia's understanding of the processes taking place in Libya," the analyst said.
Ontikov added that Haftar is a military man and, probably, a dialog on the line of the Defense Ministry has been arranged. But from a geographical point of view, Libya cannot become a full-fledged substitute for Syria, but for lack of anything better, Libya is in principle capable of meeting Russia's needs, the expert believes.
- The base that the media write about has an excellent location and provides access to other countries in the Sahel region. But so far we proceed from the official statements of Russian representatives that there is no military activity of Moscow on the territory of this country in the format in which it is described in various Western media," Ontikov summarized.
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