They seemed to be in the red: every fifth bank in Russia became unprofitable
According to the results of January–February 2026, almost 20% of Russian banks became unprofitable, according to the Central Bank data analyzed by Izvestia. Since the beginning of the year, their number has increased from 34 to 60. These are mainly small banks, whose total share in the sector's assets does not exceed 1%, the Central Bank said. In the context of tight monetary policy, it is difficult for clients to service debts that they took out at high interest rates, and competition for a high-quality borrower is increasing dramatically. In such circumstances, large banks remain profitable, while small ones experience problems. Whether this could lead to the withdrawal of weak players and reduced competition is discussed in the Izvestia article.
Why are there more unprofitable banks
Since the beginning of the year, the number of unprofitable banks in Russia has increased almost 1.8 times — if as of January 1 there were 34 of them, then by the beginning of March there were 60, according to the Central Bank. This is 19.7% of the market participants. If we talk about credit institutions in general, the number of unprofitable ones has reached 79, or 22%. This is the maximum value since 2022, said Denis Sochnev, Managing Partner of <url>.
He explained that this is largely due to the accumulated effect of tight monetary policy. The regulator kept the key rate at a record high of 21% for more than six months and began to slowly reduce it in June 2025. In April, for the eighth time in a row, the Central Bank lowered the rate by only 0.5 percentage points, now it is at 14.5%.
In January–February 2026, the share of unprofitable banks actually increased slightly, the press service of the Central Bank confirmed to Izvestia. They added that these were mostly small players, their combined share in the sector's assets does not exceed 1%.
According to Denis Sochnev, losses could be formed as follows. High interest rates increased the burden on borrowers, which automatically increased the risks of loan portfolios. It has become more difficult for customers to service their obligations, the margin of credit institutions has decreased, and competition for a high-quality borrower has increased dramatically. Large banks in such conditions are able to adapt quickly due to their scale, product range and flexibility of tariff policy. Small players find themselves in a vulnerable position: their costs are relatively higher, and the room for maneuver is limited, the expert explained.
However, over a longer period of time, some fairly large banks have also shown negative financial results. According to the Expert RA ranking, for the year to April 1, 2026, for example, Post Bank (-7.2 billion rubles), Sinara (-3.3 billion), UBRiR (-2.8 billion), CentroCredit bank (-1.8 billion), Ingo (-1.2 billion) and "Solidarity" (-0.9 billion).
By themselves, losses at individual banks do not indicate problems, the Central Bank said. They noted that it is necessary to look at the financial situation of the credit institution in the complex. A combination of many factors can affect the result in certain periods of time: credit, deposit and expenditure operations (for example, deductions to reserves for borrowers in certain months), the volume of business (assets generating interest income), the chosen business model, the level of competition, the state of liquidity, seasonality of market conditions.
In general, the volume of losses in the industry has even decreased compared to last year against the background of a decrease in the key one, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The market is being helped by a revival in demand for loans. However, the number of unprofitable banks has increased because not all players have coped with the deterioration in the quality of borrowers and the increase in delinquency. Many participants had to significantly increase reserves for possible loan losses, and this factor directly affects net profit — the more contributions to reserves, the lower the profit, the expert explained.
Consumer loan rates in early 2025 even reached 45-50% per annum. Therefore, it is not surprising that last year the demand for loans simply collapsed. With the simultaneous tightening of requirements for borrowers under preferential mortgage programs, this situation could not but affect the financial results of banks for 2025. The echoes of the catastrophic market situation are visible now, Natalia Milchakova added.
The result of the first two months could also be related to a loss in the foreign exchange position of some banks against the background of exchange rate volatility, said Mikhail Matovnikov, Senior Managing Director, Head of Sberbank's Financial Analytics Center.
Will small banks leave the market
The current results for the market as a whole are not a signal of a crisis, but of a widening gap within the sector, said Dmitry Mikhailov, an expert on consumer lending and Chief operating officer of Cosmovizacom. The banking sector remains profitable, but it is becoming more heterogeneous. In general, the net profit of Russian banks amounted to about 394 billion rubles in January and 392 billion in February.
However, it is increasingly difficult for small and medium-sized players to maintain profitability. As a result, profits are concentrated among the largest participants, and the market is gradually moving towards consolidation, he added.
— The key risk here is not related to the stability of the system, but to a change in its structure. Continued pressure may lead to the displacement of weak participants, a reduction in the number of players and increased market concentration. For small banks themselves, this means the need for rapid adaptation: a review of business models, the search for new niches or partnerships. Otherwise, they will be forced to leave the market," Denis Sochnev concluded.
Medium and small banks, which are limited in sales channels and do not have the resources to explore new niches, are in a special risk zone, says financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, problems are also experienced by those who have been actively lending to businesses, as the default rate there is now approaching a critically high level. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the share of non-performing loans to legal entities exceeded 11% compared to 5.8% a year earlier. Following this, the cost of reservations increased.
The risks of this situation are related to the fact that a number of credit institutions that have suffered very large losses in 2025 may have to join larger bank holdings or give up their licenses and leave the market, Natalia Milchakova warned. This will lead to a monopolization of the market, especially in the regions, which will lead to an increase in the cost of customer service for a number of operations. It also poses additional problems for borrowers in obtaining loans, including through preferential programs, since the largest banks currently approve no more than 15-20% of applications submitted.
By the end of 2026, the profit volume of the banking sector will not exceed 3.2 trillion rubles, predicts economist Andrey Barkhota. And if these risks are realized, the financial result will be even lower and, possibly, will be fully reflected next year.
Whether to expect a further increase in the number of unprofitable banks will depend on the key interest rate, Denis Sochnev believes. If the Central Bank continues to ease policy, the situation may improve in the second half of 2026 as the situation in the credit market improves, Natalia Milchakova agreed. At the same time, the most problematic regional banks will be acquired by larger competitors.
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