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- An erroneous matter: why forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank differ from reality by 2.5 times
An erroneous matter: why forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank differ from reality by 2.5 times
The forecasts of the economic authorities are getting further away from reality. By the end of last year, the discrepancy with the actual data reached two and a half times, and at the beginning of 2026, the situation not only repeated itself, but consolidated as a stable trend. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe: This is not an exception, but rather the norm for macro statistics in recent years. Moreover, we are talking about both the dynamics of GDP and the budget deficit. At a meeting on economic issues on April 15, Vladimir Putin actually pointed out the systemic nature of the problem, critically assessing the gap between the forecasts of the government and the Central Bank and the results obtained. Systemic forecasting errors complicate budget planning and increase uncertainty for businesses, so the authorities are forced to adjust key economic parameters. On average, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Energy revise their forecasts three to four times a year, catching up with reality.
Why does reality differ from the forecasts of the authorities
Vladimir Putin has publicly questioned the accuracy of the forecasts of the government and the Central Bank, demanding urgent explanations from them due to the failure of key macroeconomic benchmarks. At a meeting on economic issues on April 15, the head of state reacted harshly to the gap between expectations and the actual dynamics of the economy.
This is not a minor deviation: in January–February, GDP decreased by 1.8%, contrary to previously stated estimates. The Ministry of Economic Development predicted growth of 1.3% at the beginning of the year, and the Bank of Russia expected acceleration to 1.6% by the end of the first quarter.
The contrast between forecasts and reality, as follows from the president's position, was a signal for an immediate analysis of the causes and adjustment of economic policy.
The discrepancy between the initial forecasts and the results is not an exception, but rather the norm for macro statistics in recent years in Russia, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.
— The Russian economy is embedded in global commodity markets and is extremely sensitive to oil prices, sanctions pressure and geopolitics, factors that no models can predict accurately. At the same time, the Ministry of Energy makes a forecast for budget planning, and the Central Bank makes a forecast for monetary policy. Everyone has their own methodology and their own incentives," he explained.
How does the discrepancy between the estimates and the actual results affect the business
For a business that puts these forecasts into investment plans, such a spread represents real costs: revised project budgets, disrupted credit costs, recalculation of rates on long—term contracts, the expert pointed out. The president's words about the discrepancies are a signal, first of all, for the Ministry of Economy: it's time to reconsider approaches to scenario conditions and establish closer work with the Central Bank, Igor Rastorguev concluded.
The discrepancy between forecasts for long—term investments and pricing in contracts for the year ahead is a real operational problem, Andrey Glushkin, Managing Partner of Main Division, member of the Council of MRO Delovaya Rossiya, agreed.
— It would be more useful to switch to public scenario forecasting with clearly described conditions for the implementation of each option, as the IMF does. Then both business and investors will be able to work not with a single figure, which in any case will turn out to be inaccurate, but with a clear risk map," he said.
An optimal model could be one in which more conservative expectations are embedded in the baseline scenarios, and the actual results turn out to be better than the forecast ones, according to independent economist Andrei Barkhota. This requires giving up excessive optimism and willingness to admit mistakes, he concluded.
In recent years, against the background of unstable geopolitics, the forecasts of the authorities and reality have diverged significantly, said financial adviser and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. The Ministry of Economic Development's initial forecast of +2.5% of GDP for 2025 resulted in 1% growth. In other words, the authorities' expectations were overestimated by two and a half times.
In 2026, against the background of a 2.1% drop in January and a 1.5% drop in February, the ministry has already announced another revision of the forecast (from the current 1.3% growth).
When will the overheating of the economy end
Incorrect forecasts of the authorities can also lead to an increase in the budget deficit. At the same time, at the Stock Exchange Forum, the day after the meeting with the president, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that there was "no need to be afraid of a shortage in the treasury." The situation with the implementation of the financial plan will be leveled during the year, he assured.
So far, the results are not impressive: in January-February, manufacturing industries, industry as a whole, and construction, a key area of the economy, went into negative territory. The industry is currently undergoing a cooling phase after overheating.
The chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, explains the problems in the economy by saying that for the first time in modern history, Russia is faced with a shortage of labor.
— Now we have a deterioration in external conditions, we can say, on an almost constant basis, both in terms of exports and imports. Unemployment is 2%. That and the fact that inflation accelerated to 10% by the beginning of last year is evidence of an overheating economy," she stressed.
The shortage of labor is a lump that has been growing for several years. If five years ago only 3-6% of enterprises said they were experiencing a shortage of personnel, now one in three, said Alexey Rodin.
— A solution has already been found: the reorientation of young people to working professions, their popularization and the creation of competitive wages. However, the effect of this will be visible in three to five years," the expert said.
Back in October last year, the central Bank predicted a way out of overheating by the beginning of 2026, but the structural shortage of personnel is a long-term story, Denis Astafyev from SharesPro agrees. The factors that can mitigate the situation are, first of all, automation and robotization of production, labor productivity growth, as well as the controlled attraction of labor migration in scarce industries, he believes.
It is also necessary to reduce budget expenditures and redirect investments into high-performance industries (in parallel with lower interest rates and new tax incentives), noted economist Andrei Barkhota.
According to Finam analyst Alexander Potavin, the combination of labor market tensions and steady inflation means that overheating is likely to persist until the end of the first half of 2026. At the same time, price growth is already partially slowing down. According to Rosstat, weekly inflation (from April 7 to April 13) dropped to 0%.
What to expect after the president's criticism
The tough questions about the state of the economy and growth rates posed by Vladimir Putin to government ministers and the head of the Central Bank indicate the president's dissatisfaction with the results of his policy, said Dmitry Orlov, Director General of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications (APEC). However, according to him, it is too early to talk about possible personnel decisions.
According to the expert, the head of state requires a prompt response to the questions he raised and positive changes due to the correction of government and Central Bank policies.
The president's statements at the meeting on economic issues cannot be called criticism, said Ruslan Andreev, project manager of the Polylog Group and political consultant. Rather, it is fixing the current situation and setting tasks to find solutions. After their implementation, personnel changes may already follow if the situation is not corrected, he noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting on economic issues
— Conversations about the resignation of the government regularly come up, but now, I think, we should not expect personnel changes, — the president of Minchenko Consulting, political scientist Evgeny Minchenko told Izvestia.
He recalled that Vladimir Putin, during a direct line at the end of last year, twice supported the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Naibullina. Since that time, his position has hardly changed radically. In addition, previous government resignations, in particular the departure of Dmitry Medvedev's team in 2020, were not preceded by public criticism. They occurred when no one expected layoffs.
In his opinion, the president's harsh rhetoric is not a signal for the upcoming resignations of officials, but an indicator that the seriousness of the problem is recognized at the highest level. Minchenko says that in informal communication, governors and big business have been sounding the alarm since last autumn.
From the expert's point of view, it is better to openly admit the problem than to create the impression that the authorities are floating in the clouds, not understanding real life.
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