Gasoline prices are threatening the political situation in the United States. What you need to know

The war with Iran is causing a fuel crisis in the United States. Gasoline prices are rising, while its reserves are decreasing, and by the end of August they may reach a historic low. Because of this, gasoline is becoming an important political factor that affects the mood of voters before the elections. How power can change in the United States because of fuel - in the Izvestia article.

The market situation

• Gasoline prices in the United States have increased by 50% since the outbreak of the war in Iran. The retail price reached $4.2 per gallon (3.78 liters), the highest since July 2022. In some regions of the Midwest, growth is projected above $5 per gallon.

• At the same time, the demand for gasoline traditionally increases in the summer due to active car trips, which leads to an additional increase in prices. Disruptions at oil refineries in the United States are also putting pressure on prices: there was a power failure at the BP plant in Whiting, and a fire broke out at the Shell plant in Norco. This also limits the fuel supply.

• In the first weeks of the conflict, the market stabilized high fuel reserves, but now the situation is deteriorating. Over the past week, inventories decreased by 6.08 million barrels and were about 3% below the five-year average. According to the experts' basic estimate, by the end of August, the volume of reserves may drop to about 198 million barrels. This is below the minimum of the 2022 energy crisis period and the weakest indicator for this time of year in history.

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Politics and oil

• For American consumers, gasoline prices are a simple and understandable indicator of the state of the economy, replacing complex indicators such as inflation or unemployment. People use them as a reference point to assess the situation in the country. Historically, since the 1970s, an increase in gasoline prices has been associated with a decrease in the approval of the president, even if he does not directly control these prices, so the impact of gasoline goes far beyond economics and affects the general perception of life.

• For example, in 2022, against the background of the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Americans' mood towards President Joe Biden changed along with gasoline prices: when they rose, according to polls, Americans felt that the country was moving in the wrong direction, and the president's rating fell. At the same time, when prices went down, the public mood improved. The peak occurred in June, when gasoline prices rose to $5 per gallon, after which prices dropped by the fall. After the reduction in the cost of gasoline, Biden's approval share rose to about 28%.

• Although many factors influence public opinion — inflation, politics, and the effects of the pandemic — gasoline has a disproportionately strong impact. It affects almost every aspect of life, from everyday expenses and travel to long-term decisions like choosing a car or a place to live. In the United States, this is especially noticeable due to the high dependence of citizens on cars and the limited development of public transport. Rising gasoline prices cause people to feel pressured and limited — a feeling that they cannot afford their usual lifestyle. When prices fall, the opposite sense of freedom appears.

• S&P Global research shows that gasoline prices often decline for about 90 days after an election, and then begin to rise closer to or immediately after the inauguration. If the current president is re-elected, prices usually remain stable after election day.

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Aggravation of the situation

• The current fuel crisis coincided with many other factors that negatively affect the attitude of Americans towards the current government. The policy of US President Donald Trump increases pressure on the Republican Party and worsens its position before the elections to the House of Representatives in November 2026. A split is growing within the party amid the war with Iran, which has been going on for more than two months, and is causing fuel prices to rise and voters to complain.

• The economic situation sharply worsens the electoral prospects of Republicans. Trump's anti-rating reached 62%. Polls show that 65% of voters are dissatisfied with the policy on gasoline prices, and 71% attribute their increase to the war. This makes the risk of losing control in the House of Representatives and weakening positions in the Senate all the more real.

• In addition, budget disputes and the consequences of the war are putting pressure on Republicans. They are discussing an increase in military spending by $200 billion by reducing social programs, despite the fact that the United States has already spent $25 billion on a military operation against Iran. Cutting costs leads to the fact that in the near future about 300 thousand people will lose health insurance, and by 2030 — up to 14 million.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinion of:

• Igor Shatrov, Head of the Expert Council of the Strategic Development Fund.