The US-Iran war could lead to food shortages in Africa. What you need to know
The conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted global fertilizer supplies: up to a third of world exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This has already led to higher prices and increased the risks of shortages, especially in Africa, where up to 80% of fertilizers are imported. At the same time, the availability of fertilizers for farmers in the global market has fallen to a minimum in four years. How the Middle East conflict affects the African continent is in the Izvestia article.
Distribution issues
• The conflict over the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global fertilizer supplies, which poses a direct threat to Africa's food security. Approximately 46% of the world's sulfur, about 30% of urea and 21% of ammonia pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The potential increase in fertilizer prices is estimated at 15-20%.
• Africa is particularly vulnerable: about 80% of fertilizers in sub-Saharan Africa are imported, often at higher prices due to logistics and financing. This dependence has already manifested itself due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, when fertilizer prices reached record levels.
• Fertilizers are already expensive due to expensive logistics for Africa, so farmers use them in insufficient quantities, which reduces yields. Economic shocks are only exacerbating this problem. Despite plans to increase production within the region, including projects in Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, there are no quick fixes, and many initiatives remain on paper.
• The crisis is hitting small-scale farmers the hardest, who produce almost 70% of the region's food. Reducing the availability of fertilizers by as little as 10% could lead to a drop in the production of staple crops (corn, rice, wheat) by up to 25% and raise food prices by up to 8% on the continent.
• About 35% of the world's supply of urea, a key component of fertilizers, is accounted for by the Persian Gulf countries. There have already been supply disruptions and a 60-70% increase in urea prices since the end of February.
• The situation is deteriorating due to disruptions in the supply of ammonia, a key raw material for nitrogen fertilizers. It is a toxic substance capable of causing serious harm to the respiratory system, and its storage in war conditions is associated with high risks. As a result, some countries, including Qatar, have completely stopped production.
• Africa's production losses are increasing daily, and recovery may take months. Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are already facing a shortage of fertilizers for the upcoming planting season. They need to build stocks in the summer for the 2027 harvest, which is standard agricultural planning practice. However, supplies are hampered by the conflict in the Middle East.
A blow to the economy
• Fuel shortages and rising prices lead to disruptions in production and supply. For example, in Ethiopia, diesel prices on the black market increased 10-fold, which affected the cost of goods and food supplies to the regions.
• At the household level, the consequences are reflected in a sharp decline in living standards: even before the crisis, families spent more than 50% of their income on food and energy (in extreme cases, over 80%). Now, the rising costs of transportation and groceries are forcing people to reduce their food intake, give up meat and look for cheaper ways to survive, increasing the risks of malnutrition and social instability.
• Remittances have been hit hard: more than 200 million Africans depend on funds coming from abroad. In 2023, such transfers amounted to about $100 billion, or almost 6% of the continent's GDP. Employment disruptions in the Gulf countries are reducing this flow, exacerbating the household crisis.
• The situation is aggravated by climate risks and weak international cooperation. The possible effect of El Nino can further reduce yields, as it already happened, for example, in 2016, when production in South Africa fell by two thirds. At the same time, international aid is declining: the budgets of developed countries to support developing countries decreased by about 15% in 2025.
The El Nino effect is the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It disrupts the usual weather conditions around the world: it causes droughts in some regions, heavy rains and floods in others. Such climate changes have a direct impact on agriculture: droughts reduce yields, and excessive rainfall can destroy crops. As a result, the risks of food shortages are increasing, especially in vulnerable countries.
Global effect
• The military confrontation in the Middle East, according to the UN, could lead to a sharp deterioration in the food situation around the world: up to 45 million people are at risk of acute hunger due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If the crisis drags on until mid-2026, about 32 million people could end up below the poverty line, posing a threat of a global economic downturn and rising poverty.
• Additional pressure is created by the rising cost of transportation around the world: ships are forced to circumnavigate Africa, which increases the delivery time by 25-30 days. The losses of the global economy can range from $0.7 to $2.2 trillion. At the same time, the countries of Asia and Africa are most affected, where farmers cannot buy expensive fertilizers, which increases the risks of unemployment, inflation and food shortages.
• The World Trade Organization has warned that if oil and gas prices remain high, global GDP may decline by 0.3% by the end of 2026, while Europe may lose about 1% of economic growth due to dependence on energy imports. More serious losses are possible in the Middle East.: The GDP of Kuwait and Qatar may decrease by up to 14%, Saudi Arabia — by about 3%, the UAE — by 5%.
• In the global market, the availability of fertilizers for farmers has fallen to its lowest level in four years, mainly due to a sharp increase in prices for natural gas, a key raw material for their production. The crisis has already hit Asia and the Global South, with India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Sudan and sub—Saharan Africa among the affected countries. There is already a shortage of fertilizers, rising prices and risks of food insecurity.
• Global food prices are already rising due to expensive resources and logistics. Farmers use less fertilizers, as a result, yields and grain stocks will decrease, and prices may remain high for a long time. Without normalization of energy and fertilizer supplies, the effects of the war will affect products around the world for a long time.
When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:
Head of the Scientific and Educational Laboratory of Modern Iran Research at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics Elmira Imamkuliyeva.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
