Passing on the fare: Europe and China have become more likely to trade in transit through the Russian Federation

The volume of traffic between China and Europe through the Russian territory has increased almost one and a half times, the head of the Ministry of Transport, Andrey Nikitin, told Izvestia. Shippers began to use the Kazakhstan–Russia–Belarus route more often due to threats in the Red Sea and unstable operation of the Suez Canal, the minister said. Due to the sanctions, the supply of dual-use goods through Russia to Europe is impossible, but this does not mean a complete ban on logistics across the territory of the Russian Federation. Moscow will even be able to make money on transit as an intermediary and attract Chinese investments for the development of railway infrastructure.

How is the volume of transportation along the main land artery of Eurasia growing

The war in the Middle East not only effectively halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, but also affected shipping through the Suez Canal. Historically, about 80-90% of the total trade turnover between China and Europe went through it. But the situation changed dramatically in 2024 due to the conflict between Israel and its allies and the Yemeni Houthis. At that time, the throughput of ships decreased by 30-40% compared to 2023.

Photo: Global Look Press/Ahmed Gomaa/XinHua

After the outbreak of the US war in Iran in February 2026, the Ansar Allah movement threatened to completely block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which made the route even less attractive.

Insurance and the cost of transportation through this artery have increased significantly, so many companies use a longer route around Africa or are looking for stable overland alternatives.

One of the most convenient options is the China–Europe transcontinental railway route, an important transport route in Eurasia and the basis of China's global megaproject "One Belt— One Road". Goods transit through three countries — Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. They travel this route on average two to three times faster than the route via the Suez Canal, so today the interest of global business in it has grown, the head of the Ministry of Transport, Andrey Nikitin, told Izvestia.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Ilya Naimushin

— In parallel, a joint project of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus is developing — the fastest railway container service between China and Europe. Against the background of threats in the Red Sea and the unstable operation of the Suez Canal, shippers' interest in this route has increased: in March 2026, the volume of container shipments between China and Europe through the territory of these countries increased by 45% — from 21 thousand tons to 31 thousand tons of TEU (the twenty-foot equivalent is a conventional unit of measurement for the capacity of cargo ships for container transportation. — Ed.), — said the minister.

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The route is a giant network that connects more than 120 Chinese cities with 200 destinations in dozens of European countries. It starts from the industrial areas of Western China. There, the goods are packed into containers, after which the express trains rush West. Further, the combined infrastructure of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus picks up the cargo. Bypassing Astana, Yekaterinburg and Moscow, trains reach Brest. From there, trains go to Poland, after which goods are distributed throughout the European Union. The final unloading points are the industrial centers of Germany, the Netherlands, France and Spain.

Cargo is delivered via the Trans-Eurasian route in an average of 12-15 days, while the sea route would now take from 40 to 45 days due to the crisis in the Suez Canal. At the dawn of the project, for example, expensive electronics were transported by rail — smartphones, processors, laptops — for which it is critically important to quickly get on the counter.

Photo: Global Look Press/Bulkin Sergey/news.ru

Now, due to the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the European Union, it is prohibited to transport dual-use goods, advanced technologies and aviation equipment that can be used in the defense sector through Russia. As a result, sophisticated electronics, servers, chips, and semiconductors have almost completely abandoned this route.

Thus, the railway has become primarily a corridor for the consumer market. In particular, it transports millions of E-commerce parcels (Shein, AliExpress) that require fast delivery.

Russia benefits from transit

The growth in traffic volume directly leads to an increase in Russia's revenues, represented by its main railway company, Russian Railways, and smaller players. The Russian Federation gets a chance to strengthen the role of not just a transit country, but an operator of the Eurasian corridor: to earn money on infrastructure, terminal processing, railway transportation, customs and logistics support and related services, Artem Valeev, General Director of FCS-Service Group, told Izvestia.

"If the flow is consolidated, it can really push investments into the route — into terminals, border crossings, rolling stock and digital services," the expert explained.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Stanislav Krasilnikov

The growing demand for the route may become an incentive for Chinese companies to invest in Russian transport infrastructure, Vadim Petrov, an international lawyer and chairman of the Board of the Public Diplomacy Association, told Izvestia. The growth of transportation volumes and investments in railway infrastructure in the future may also lead to the creation of new jobs.

The main obstacle to increasing the volume of shipments is the sanctions regime that European countries have imposed on Russia. For example, restrictions can cause problems with payments, especially if sub-sanctioned banks are involved. Some European companies may consider such a corridor economically advantageous, but reputationally or legally posing risks, said Artem Valeev.

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Russia is discussing the signing of transit memoranda with the countries of the Persian Gulf, South Asia and Africa.

Even if the goods are formally in transit and are not intended for the Russian market, banks, insurers, carriers and owners will have to verify the origin of the cargo, the final recipient, the "sanctioned" status of participants in the chain and the possibility of dual-use products, Vadim Petrov added.

"This increases administrative costs and may lead to the abandonment of part of the European business route through the Russian Federation," the expert said.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Vitaly Ankov

Nevertheless, this path remains very attractive. Thanks to a joint venture between the railways of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Belarus, the train quickly passes through the entire "union" territory without customs stops and locomotive changes.

The Middle East crisis has clearly proved that the security of the sea lanes is an illusion that can collapse at any moment. However, in search of a saving land, Europe tied its own hands with a sanctions policy. By trying to isolate Russia, which has historically been its most important trading partner, Brussels has only made life more difficult for its own business. Instead of taking advantage of high-speed Eurasian transit, Europe is forced to overpay, putting its economy at risk.