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- Account over time: the pension of Russians would exceed 30 thousand without the freezing of savings
Account over time: the pension of Russians would exceed 30 thousand without the freezing of savings
If pension savings had not been frozen in 2014, the income of Russians who went on vacation would be noticeably higher today. For those who have officially worked since 2002, the increase could reach 30% to the current 25 thousand (the average insurance pension), the NPF "Future" calculated for Izvestia. At that time, the moratorium was introduced as a measure to cover the deficit of the FIU (the current Social Fund), but in fact it suspended the formation of the "second pension". Now these funds are proposed to be allocated to a long-term savings program in order to stimulate independent savings against the background of an aging population and an increasing burden on the system. What decisions are being discussed today can be found in the Izvestia article.
Why have pension savings been frozen?
In addition to the insurance pension, some Russians also have a funded one. It was formed before 2014: out of 22% of the employer's insurance contributions, 6% were sent to a citizen's personal account in the FIU or a non-governmental pension fund (NPF). Unlike the insurance part, which is calculated in points, we are talking about "live" money.
Later, due to demographic factors — first of all, an increase in life expectancy — there was a shortage of funds in the system. As a result, the state imposed a moratorium on the formation of a funded pension (the so-called freeze occurred): since 2014, all contributions have been directed only to the insurance part, and those accounts cannot be replenished.
At the same time, the savings that have already been formed have been preserved. Funds are invested in financial instruments, and investment income is credited to citizens' accounts every five years.
If the formation of the funded part had not been stopped and 6% of contributions from current salaries were still sent there, payments could have been noticeably higher. According to analysts at NPF Future, by 2026 they would amount to 20-33% of the insured pension. With its average amount of 25.3 thousand rubles (as of March), the increase would reach 5-8 thousand, and the total income of pensioners would exceed 30 thousand rubles in 2026.
In the longer term, the effect would be even more noticeable. According to the calculations of the same fund, by 2040, the funded pension could reach 50-95% of the insurance pension, which is 23-47 thousand against the projected 49 thousand.
The total amount of savings would also be significantly higher. As calculated in the NPF "Future", in the absence of a freeze, it would have reached 35 trillion, or about 475 thousand per person. Now the figure is almost five times lower — about 7 trillion, or an average of 90 thousand per customer.
Izvestia sent a request to the Social Fund.
How pensions are growing in Russia
If the funded system had not been frozen in 2014, it could not only have increased payments, but also increased citizens' trust in the system. In this case, the base of participants would gradually expand, says Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.
Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, agrees that the total pension could be higher. She recalls: according to Rosstat, in 2002-2013, the average salary in Russia increased almost sevenfold, and with it increased deductions for savings (6% of salary). These funds were invested through management companies, which could provide additional income.
The estimate of 30 thousand rubles of the average pension looks realistic at the current 25 thousand, Natalia Milchakova notes. However, she clarifies: despite the fourfold growth of the stock market during that period, NPFs mainly invested in government bonds with relatively low yields, which restrained the growth of savings.
Now the focus has shifted to the development of the long-term savings program, Olga Belenkaya notes. The state also fulfills its obligations to index pensions at least below inflation, but previous expectations were higher. So, before the changes in 2019, the Accounting Chamber predicted the replacement rate (the ratio of the average pension to the average lost salary) at 34% in 2024 and 36% in the future. It was discussed that raising the retirement age would keep the figure at about 34%, while without changes it could drop to 28%. As a result, the actual ratio of pension to salary, according to Rosstat, is now only 23-25%, the expert emphasized.
Additionally, the authorities are discussing the transfer of funds from the "Molchuns" to the PDS, Izvestia previously reported. The initiative is aimed at increasing the participation of citizens in savings and the formation of "long money" for the economy. Through NPFs, these funds can be invested in infrastructure and government projects, supporting growth.
The PDS has been operating since 2024 as a voluntary instrument. Participants make contributions, receive co-financing from the state and tax deductions, and can also transfer previously formed savings. Under the terms of the program, the state adds up to 36 thousand rubles per year (up to 360 thousand over ten years), and the tax deduction can reach 52-88 thousand annually. According to the Central Bank, as of March 2026, 11 million contracts worth about 800 billion have been concluded.
How can the pension system be improved?
The current level of payments does not ensure a comfortable old age: 25 thousand per month is more a level of survival than a decent life, says Anastasia Gorelkina, Chairman of the Board of Directors of HC SDS JSC. At the same time, according to her, the median pension is lower than the average, and real expenses in cities exceed the cost of living. An additional signal is that almost a third of Russians plan to continue working after retirement.
At the same time, the state is gradually strengthening the system. Since 2025, the indexation of payments to working pensioners has been restored. Further steps, in her opinion, should include bringing employment out of the shadows and improving citizens' financial literacy. The effectiveness of the PDS directly depends on how early citizens begin to accumulate savings.
In general, population aging is a common trend in developed countries, where a decrease in the birth rate is combined with an increase in life expectancy, says Olga Belenkaya from Finam. In such conditions, the distribution model based on the principle of "workers support pensioners" is increasingly failing to replace lost income, she believes.
Traditional measures such as raising the retirement age and increasing insurance premiums are applied, but they have economic limitations and cause public discontent, the expert added. Therefore, the role of the accumulative component, which is widely used in world practice, is growing. However, with high inflation, there may be no income, which increases the risks for citizens. The expert calls the combined system the most stable option: a basic distributive pension and voluntary savings with tax benefits.
Another area remains the development of corporate pension programs. Their expansion will have a positive effect for the participants and may become an important element of the entire system, says Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets, Associate Professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Additionally, NPFs should be given more flexibility in investments in order to increase the profitability of investments, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global believes. This, in turn, will increase future payments.
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