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Sharing the skin of an unkilled dragon: Japan wants to draw Australia into the anti-Chinese coalition
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will pay an official visit to Australia from 3 to 5 May. The parties will discuss the expansion of economic ties and cooperation in the defense sector. Militarization has been in full swing in Tokyo lately, so the upcoming trip has attracted increased attention in Beijing. Chinese media fear that the Japanese will draw the Australians into a confrontation with China. They are also afraid of this in Canberra. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
To get into a conflict with China
"Our special strategic partnership is based on deep trade and investment ties, growing security and defense cooperation, and strong cultural ties between our countries," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on his website.
Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Basic Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between the two countries. The official visit of the Japanese Prime Minister will be the first since Sanae Takaichi took office. In total, this is the fourth meeting between the two leaders — last year they spoke at the East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur, the APEC summit in Gyeongchu and the G20 summit in Johannesburg.
The Australian media fears that "Japan's hawkish prime minister may drag Australia into conflict with China." The Australian Financial Review (AFR) publication in the article asks the question: "Has Canberra fully considered the implications of its growing defense ties with Tokyo?"
In particular, the publication mentions two provocations by the Japanese authorities. Last week, the Ikazuchi warship passed through the Taiwan Strait on the anniversary of the signing of the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, according to which the Qing Dynasty government was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan. In Beijing, this document is considered an attempt by the imperialist powers to enslave China and turn it into a semi-colony.
Destroyer JS Ikazuchi (DD-107)
The local media was displeased by another incident — on April 21, Sanae Takaichi sent a ritual offering — a masakaki tree — to Yasukuni Shrine, where war criminals from World War II are buried.
If Australia does not comment on the actions of its regional partners in any way, Tokyo, according to the author of the publication, will regard silence as support for the harsh policy of the Japanese authorities.
Strengthening cooperation with the United States
"Japan, far from the image of a "peace—loving nation" that it likes to display, is increasingly perceived as risky and destabilizing, which increases the vigilance of many countries," writes the Chinese edition of The Global Times.
It reports on Japan's provocations against China's core interests. We are talking about an accelerated build-up of military power, increased defense spending, easing restrictions on the export of lethal weapons, joining joint military exercises with regional partners and signing a major contract for the supply of warships with Australia.
"Takaichi's deep-rooted warlike instincts are now showing in all their glory. Her tireless actions since taking office have clearly accelerated Japan's remilitarization and neo-militarism. The rapid increase in defense cooperation between Japan and Australia is a deliberate attempt by Japan to free itself from post—war military restrictions, using the support of its allies to advance its own expansionist ambitions, effectively dragging Australia into a risky situation," the media writes.
The current Japanese prime minister advocates strengthening the country's military power and strengthening the military alliance with Washington. US President Donald Trump is demanding that Tokyo increase military spending, and the Takaichi government has already agreed to raise it to 2% of GDP.
Japan is not only producing and purchasing advanced weapons in large quantities, but is also changing its attitude towards the army at the doctrinal level, says Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.
— The situation has changed due to the fact that in the context of the growing confrontation between Washington and Beijing, the western Pacific Ocean has become a region of maximum concentration of forces and the formation of blocs. Japan is the world's largest F—35 buyer after the United States. The country, together with Britain and Italy, is also participating in a program to create a sixth—generation GCAP fighter, the expert points out.
In 2024, Tokyo signed a contract to purchase 400 Tomahawks from Washington. At the same time, Japan plans to ease the nuclear restrictions adopted in 1971, which prescribed not to create, acquire or allow nuclear weapons to be deployed on its territory. The new government, led by Takaichi, openly says it is going to abandon the third principle.
For several years, the country has been discussing US plans to deploy new SLCM-N nuclear cruise missiles on multi-purpose submarines, which are being created to "strengthen the expanded deterrence" of China.
—Japan is now significantly ahead of any European country in terms of the quantity and quality of deployed missile systems, aviation procurement and fleet construction," the analyst emphasizes.
Australia is against
Against the background of what is happening in China, they are confident that Japan "uses defense cooperation to gradually involve Australia in its strategic orbit" — an informal anti-Chinese alliance of the Indo-Pacific region. This is a step-by-step and focused approach.
The parties recently completed a multibillion-dollar deal for the supply of warships, and now Tokyo is seeking to expand bilateral military cooperation. A number of Australian experts and politicians urge Canberra to refrain from deepening cooperation with Japan. They believe that this will entail obvious risks and costs. Among them is former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating, who opposed Australia's involvement in a confrontation with China on the side of the United States.
Australia's participation in the conflict with China, according to Australian publications, will reduce the country's diplomatic flexibility towards Beijing. The authorities will have to redirect funds from healthcare, education and infrastructure to military needs, the journalists believe.
In turn, the Chinese media are convinced that it is not so difficult for Australia to get out of the "trap set by Japan." To do this, it is necessary to be guided by the national interests of the country, listen to rational voices within the state, and "maintain strategic autonomy and diplomatic balance."
"The most important thing is to listen to China's clear message: there is no fundamental conflict of interest between China and Australia, and China's development is an opportunity for Australia, not a challenge," the Chinese publication emphasizes.
Build supply chains bypassing China
Relations between China and Japan are actually becoming more complicated on a monthly basis, Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— At the moment, states, on the one hand, are trying to sever trade and economic ties, on the other hand, they recall long-standing grievances and those issues that could not be resolved in previous periods, and bring them up for global discussion, — the expert explains.
Recently, representatives of Japan and China exchanged remarks at a meeting of the UN Security Council on maritime security issues — against the background of the critical situation around the Strait of Hormuz, the parties recalled their own problems in the East China and South China Seas, she recalls.
— China is increasing its activity at sea, and Japan is trying to counteract it in some way. At the same time, Tokyo, for its part, is also increasing maritime activity, and both sides continue to escalate," the Chinese expert points out.
China is strengthening its infrastructure construction in the disputed territories. Japan, on the other hand, recalls the Concept of the Indo-Pacific Region, which is not supported by China because it has a pronounced anti-Chinese orientation.
During the upcoming visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to Australia, it is planned, among other things, to discuss the issue of creating a free open space for information technology. The main task is to build both supply chains bypassing China and a defense communications system that, if necessary, can work against China.
— The negotiations will discuss the need to break ties with China and reduce dependence on China in a number of critical supplies, in particular in rare earth metals. Most likely, this will be a continuation of deepening cooperation with Australia and Vietnam, where the Japanese Prime Minister is also planning a visit, the analyst believes.
Under these conditions, China will use various levers, primarily economic ones, to show that such an anti-Chinese approach contradicts the national interests of both Australia and Vietnam, Zaklyazminskaya expects.
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