Clouds over the sea: the crisis in relations between China and Japan has reached a new level

Relations between China and Japan have become even more tense after Tokyo announced plans to deploy anti-aircraft missiles near Taiwan by 2031. Prior to that, Beijing imposed export restrictions on several dozen companies, considering that they were "involved in strengthening Japanese military power." Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Missiles near Taiwan

Anti—aircraft missiles capable of shooting down aircraft and ballistic missiles will be deployed on Japan's westernmost island of Yonaguni over the next five years, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said. He explained Tokyo's decision by the aggravation of regional tensions. According to the British newspaper The Guardian, this will further complicate the already difficult relations with China, since the island is located just 100 kilometers from Taiwan.

Photo: TASS/Zuma/Aaron Henson

The head of the Ministry of Defense made his statement against the background of a diplomatic scandal caused by the words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about Taiwan's security.

Earlier in parliament, she said that China's attack on Taiwan could lead to the intervention of Japan's Self-Defense Forces "if the conflict poses an existential threat to the country."

Playing on nerves: why is China conducting large-scale exercises around Taiwan

Experts spoke about the consequences of a potential blockade of the island.

Beijing responded by warning Tokyo that in the event of intervention, the Land of the Rising Sun would face a "crushing defeat." The Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned the Japanese ambassador for an explanation, and the authorities demanded an apology from the Japanese Prime Minister. However, Takaichi did not apologize.

The plans of the Japanese authorities to deploy missiles near Taiwan became known the day after Beijing decided to impose restrictions on the export of dual-use goods against 20 Japanese companies, which, according to Beijing, "contribute to the revival of the country's former militarism."

An uneasy relationship

Throughout the history of China-Japan relations, periods of rivalry, disagreement, and military aggression on the Japanese side have been replaced by stages of normalization and economic partnership. However, not least the tension between Tokyo and Beijing is caused by the status of Taiwan.

Photo: TASS/Yuri Smithyuk

In 1972, Tokyo and Beijing signed a joint communique in which Japan officially supported the "one China" policy, recognizing Taiwan as part of the PRC. At the same time, Japan considers Taipei to be its key strategic partner in the region and is developing economic and cultural ties with the island separately from Beijing.

In addition, Tokyo considers the potential escalation between China and Taiwan to be one of the most important threats to its security, although until recently they spoke rather cautiously on this topic.

Back in 2022, Japan began talking about plans to deploy anti-aircraft missiles near Taiwan, but this was the first time that specific measures were announced. Residents of Yonaguni, according to The Guardian, openly express fears of being drawn into a major military conflict in the region.

The Chinese are annoyed by the Japanese military activity on the island. In November last year, the matter came to a scandal when the head of the Japanese Ministry of Defense visited Yonaguni with an inspection. Beijing described these actions as "deliberately creating regional tensions and fomenting military confrontation."

After that, Chinese drones appeared near the island, in response to which Japanese fighters took off.

Photo: TASS/AP/Eugene Hoshiko

Chinese authorities have sent warships to the Japanese shores and suspended seafood imports. In addition, Beijing has frozen the approval process for the screening of new Japanese films, and Chinese airlines have offered compensation to passengers who refuse to fly to Japan on tickets already purchased.

The country's leading economic research center has estimated that a sharp decline in the number of Chinese tourists could reduce Japan's tourism revenue by $14 billion per year. This news hurt the shares of Japanese companies in the transportation sector and retail trade.

Preparing for the meeting with Trump

The current escalation between Tokyo and Beijing is further complicated by the fact that Japan has recently begun to gradually move away from the ban on the export of lethal weapons abroad — on February 25, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party approved a proposal to the government to relax the rules that restrict the transfer of a number of categories of lethal weapons to other countries.

Photo: TASS/Zuma/Cpl. Patrick Crosley

In general, the transfer of lethal weapons to countries involved in ongoing conflicts remains prohibited, but in exceptional cases it is possible. For example, if it concerns the national security of the country.

Now the issue related to the export of lethal weapons will have to be resolved by the National Security Council, which, together with the Prime Minister, includes individual members of the Cabinet. They plan to approve these changes before the meeting at the White House between the Japanese Prime Minister and US President Donald Trump, scheduled for March 19.

Coveted island of discord: Taiwan issue has strained relations between China and Japan

Beijing and Tokyo are already fighting online

Restructuring China's Foreign Policy

Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University, notes that relations between China and Japan have always been quite tense.

"This was explained by two factors: first of all, Japan's absolute support for American policy in the region, and secondly, the ongoing dispute over a number of territories, including islands," the political scientist said.

Sanae Takaichi

Photo: REUTERS/Kiyoshi Ota/Pool

The expert added that the situation had greatly worsened due to Takaichi's words about Taiwan's "unconditional support" in the event of military action, if any, including the use of Japanese weapons.

— This caused great indignation among the Chinese leadership. Moreover, Beijing has seriously inflated this topic on purpose — it covers it as widely as possible in the Chinese media, in blogs. China has repeatedly made overflights of the disputed territory for which it competes with Japan. And in this sense, Beijing shows that any interference in China's affairs will be fraught with very serious consequences," the expert said.

In his opinion, this is the general policy of restructuring Chinese foreign policy.

"China is tired of being limited to some warnings, while Japan and the United States are operating as widely as possible in this region through Japan's hands," the analyst explained.

Masayuki Masuda, head of the China department at the Japanese National Defense Research Institute, noted that he sees no alternative for Tokyo other than "a long endurance test in relations with China."

Photo: REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

"China is using economic measures to try to turn Japanese public opinion against the Takaichi administration,— he said. — I think China is watching how this pressure will work.

Masuda also stressed that Tokyo and Beijing have different definitions of "constructive relations."

Bonnie S. Glazer, managing director of the Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program, in turn, believes that it will not come to a serious escalation between China and Japan, as Donald Trump seeks to avoid worsening the prospects for concluding a trade deal between Washington and Beijing.

"I think Trump is very careful when he talks about Taiwan because he knows it's an explosive issue. The most important lesson learned by the US president last year is that his country is very vulnerable to China when it comes to rare earths and critically important minerals," the expert concluded.