Time for money: EU wants to adopt the 21st package of sanctions by the end of June
Brussels may approve the next package of sanctions against Russia before the end of Cyprus' presidency of the EU Council, MEP Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia. According to him, the timing will depend on reaching a consensus among the countries of the association. According to the European Izvestia source, the union expects to complete the approval procedure by July 1 in order to avoid bureaucratic delays due to the change of chairman. Experts believe that Bulgaria and Slovakia can interfere with Brussels' plans if the proposed measures damage their economies. The new package of sanctions will target Russia's energy sector, and the EU will also try to prevent restrictions from being circumvented through third countries.
It is difficult for the EU to approve new sanctions against Russia
The European Union hopes to adopt the 21st package of anti-Russian restrictions no later than July 1, the deadline for the end of Cyprus' presidency of the EU Council, but negotiations on it may be difficult, European Parliament deputy Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia.
— The timing will depend on the political consensus among the Member States. Sanctions packages require unanimity, and negotiations can be difficult. Despite the political will to continue putting pressure on Russia, I would be wary of setting tight deadlines. It is possible that the current chairman of the Council will be appointed by the end of his term, but this is not guaranteed," said a representative of the ruling European People's Party.
The draft of the 21st package of sanctions has not yet been submitted to the EU Council, its consideration depends on the deadline for submission. However, the adoption procedure is planned to be completed before the end of the powers of the President of the EU Council, a European source confirmed to Izvestia.
From July 1, Ireland, which also supports the anti-Russian line, will preside over the EU Council. Rather, the point is that accepting the package before this deadline will avoid slowing down the entire process due to bureaucratic shift changes. The role of the Chairman is to set the agenda and conduct consensus negotiations. The European Commission is preparing the contents of the sanctions packages and implementing them.
Earlier, the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, said that discussions on a new package of sanctions had begun in the EU. The last one, the 20th, was approved on April 22, along with a loan to Ukraine of €90 billion. However, it was announced back in February, and the delay in adoption was caused by the blocking from Hungary. Budapest demanded the return of supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline, which Kiev had stopped. After the resumption of oil pumping, Hungary withdrew its veto.
At the same time, the Hungarian government will change in early May — the Tisa party, led by Peter Magyar, won the parliamentary elections on April 12. The future prime minister said that he plans to conclude an agreement with the European Commission on unblocking frozen funds for Hungary from euro funds. Although Magyar does not publicly reject the possibility of dialogue with Russia, especially in the energy sector, in order to receive EU funds, he is likely to refuse to block new packages of restrictions.
However, this does not mean that there are no more opponents of sanctions against Russia within the EU. Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy Head of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, believes that Bulgaria and Slovakia can interfere with the union's plans. The Prime Minister of the latter, Robert Fico, already delayed the adoption of the 18th and 19th packages last year, demanding guarantees from the EC for the supply of energy resources to the republic. Bratislava also supported Hungary's actions regarding the loan to Ukraine.
In addition, the Progressive Bulgaria coalition led by former President Rumen Radev won the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria. As head of state, he opposed military aid to Ukraine and insisted on dialogue with Moscow. Radev is expected to form a government in early May.
The future Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar
However, it is important to understand that Brussels has managed to approve all the proposed sanctions packages. Budapest and Bratislava use the right of veto as a bargaining tool, seeking a postponement or exclusion from sanctions measures.
What will be included in the 21st restriction package
The next package of sanctions will be aimed at eliminating existing loopholes, strengthening law enforcement practices and targeting sectors that continue to generate significant revenue for Russia, Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia.
— This may include energy-related services, financial flows, dual-use goods, and measures against organizations involved in circumventing sanctions. Strengthening implementation and compliance across the EU will also be a key priority," the politician noted.
Earlier, the EU removed a complete ban on the provision of oil transportation services to Russia from the 20th package. This was done against the backdrop of rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. Brussels has also postponed the publication of a plan to completely phase out Russian oil by the end of 2027.
Tomasz Zdechowski believes that the European Union will continue to tighten restrictions in areas where loopholes have been identified, including transport and related services. The Baltic states, Northern Europe and Poland actively support such bans. Greece and Malta, on the other hand, fear serious damage to their shipping sector.
In addition, Brussels is likely to replenish the list of tankers that allegedly transport Russian resources. Currently, European sanctions have been imposed against 632 vessels. The EU will also continue to impose restrictions on Russian banks, even against relatively small organizations. The blacklist of individuals who are prohibited from entering the European Union is gradually increasing.
— Fight against circumvention of sanctions The EU has been working for quite a long time, and the association has recently been putting quite a serious emphasis on it. However, as long as there are incentives to interact with Russian exporters, this struggle is likely to have limited effect. Although the overall volume of difficulties for Russian business is increasing," Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
However, Russian officials have repeatedly stressed that European sanctions will not change Moscow's policy. The Russian economy, despite the difficulties, continues to function steadily, ensuring the fulfillment of its objectives. In addition, in the context of the energy crisis, the costs of illegal restrictions in Brussels are increasing. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko previously estimated the EU's losses at €1.5–2 trillion. The cost of gas and electricity in Europe is about three to four times higher than the price in the American market.
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