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- Tight deadline: EU expects to adopt the 20th package of sanctions against Russia in May
Tight deadline: EU expects to adopt the 20th package of sanctions against Russia in May
Brussels has scheduled approval of the next package of anti-Russian restrictions and assistance to Ukraine in May, European Parliament deputy Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia. According to sources, they intend to discuss this issue in the middle of next month, after the new Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar takes office. Experts believe that he will agree to approve the loan to Ukraine and the 20th list of sanctions in exchange for exceptions in the energy sector and the unfreezing of financing. However, Slovakia can block these measures, and European countries will have to finance Kiev in the context of the energy crisis due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Will Hungary agree on a loan for Ukraine
The European Union expects to approve a loan to Ukraine in the amount of €90 billion and the 20th package of sanctions against Russia in May, Tomasz Zdechowski, an MEP from the Czech Republic and a member of the ruling European People's Party, told Izvestia. But he stressed that it was quite ambitious.
"The European Union first needs to receive clear signals from Budapest and complete the standard procedures for negotiations between all member states,— Zdechowski stressed.
A European source also confirmed to Izvestia that consideration of the blocked loan and anti-Russian sanctions "will resume immediately after Peter Magyar takes office as Prime Minister of Hungary."
Another interlocutor noted that this issue will be discussed at a meeting of the EU Council on Foreign Affairs on May 11, as well as at a meeting of the European Council on May 22. At the same time, the next meeting of the presidents and prime ministers of the EU countries will be held on April 23-24. Hungary is likely to be represented by the outgoing head of government.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Cyprus, the current president of the EU Council, plans to raise the issue of allocating €90 billion to Kiev as soon as possible at a meeting of ambassadors of the member states of the association. This is indirectly confirmed by the EC's plans to begin the first payments to Ukraine on a loan of €90 billion, which is designed for 2026 and 2027, already in the second quarter, that is, before the end of June. A representative of the European Commission, in a comment to Izvestia, noted that the EC "expects all leaders to fulfill their obligations under the loan agreement to Ukraine."
On April 12, the opposition Tisa party led by Peter Magyar won the parliamentary elections in Hungary. According to preliminary data, she won 136 seats in parliament out of 199, while Viktor Orban's Fidesz won only 56. The results of the vote put an end to Orban's 16-year rule in Hungary. A new Magyar-led government will be formed by mid-May.
Hungary began blocking the European loan to Ukraine and the 20th package of sanctions against Russia in February due to Kiev's suspension of oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline. Attempts by Viktor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to force Ukrainians to restore the pumping of resources have not been successful.
On April 14, after the opposition's victory in Hungary, at a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Vladimir Zelensky announced that the Druzhba oil pipeline would be operational by the end of April. However, the Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly postponed the launch date of the route, using it as a lever of pressure. On the eve of the parliamentary elections in Hungary, there were attempts to completely leave it without energy supplies — in Serbia, an attempt to sabotage the Turkish Stream gas pipeline was thwarted in early April.
How does Hungary feel about sanctions against Russia
The key question now is whether Hungary, under the leadership of Peter Magyar, will follow the course of Brussels in everything. And approving a loan to Ukraine is the first test for the next government. The European Commission still has a lever of pressure — €17 billion of frozen funds from European funds. It will be difficult for the future Hungarian prime minister to defend his position in front of Brussels, as he has made the restoration of European financing one of his main election promises.
The EU is confident that Viktor Orban's defeat will allow Ukraine to receive a European loan. Earlier, Izvestia wrote about the preparation of a plan to deprive Budapest of the right to vote in the EU Council if the head of Fidesz is successful. Now this scenario is obviously not required.
— Peter Magyar's victory in Hungary removes one of the key political obstacles within the EU, which can accelerate the discussion of both the 20th package of sanctions and further financial support for Ukraine. However, this will not happen automatically — it all depends on how quickly the new Hungarian government takes office and clarifies its position," said Tomasz Zdechowski.
Magyar's first statements regarding the loan to Ukraine look contradictory and evasive. On the one hand, he declares that Hungary does not plan to finance the Kiev regime, since the country is "ruined by Orban," on the other, he says that he does not want to prevent the allocation of an EU loan to Ukraine, Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Central and Eastern European Studies department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
— It can be assumed that the Magyar will vote for a loan at the next EU summit, but with the condition that Budapest refuses to directly participate in financing this instrument of support for Kiev, — the expert believes.
It is important to note that Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic refused to participate in financing the loan to Ukraine at the end of last year. However, Izvestia previously wrote that these countries would somehow suffer economic losses from lending to Kiev. Any changes to the EU budget require a unanimous decision by all 27 member states. Even if Hungary refuses to give its national guarantees, the very fact of using a "common cash register" requires Budapest's approval. In order for the European Commission to borrow money on behalf of the entire EU, Hungary's signature is required.
— Hungary's veto was caused more by pre-election reasons. It will be interesting, however, to see how much the December political agreement of the member countries is valid today, since the economic circumstances for making a legally binding decision on the financing mechanism have changed a lot," said Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
In particular, there is still no clarity about the change in the position of Slovakia, which supported Hungary in blocking the loan. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico earlier noted that his country is ready to take over this baton from Hungary, if necessary, against the background of the unwillingness of the Kiev authorities to restore oil supplies through Druzhba.
At the same time, Peter Magyar's line on sanctions is also not entirely consistent with the EU's position. He supports anti-Russian restrictions, but hopes for their removal after the end of the conflict. In addition, the politician stressed that Budapest will not stop buying Russian oil and plans to negotiate with Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Russian side is ready to build relations with the new Hungarian government.
— Taking into account the intra-Hungarian developments, the probability of approving a package of sanctions increases as early as May. However, it is necessary to take into account that there may be some contradictions already at the level of the European Union itself," Sergeyev stressed.
Budapest has always agreed to approve the next package of anti-Russian restrictions, only negotiating individual exceptions, for example, for the Paks-2 NPP project. Magyar intends to stop using the veto as a tool of blackmail by Brussels, but he made it clear that he would insist on exceptions for Hungary in areas of critical importance to the country, especially in the context of the energy crisis due to the conflict in the Middle East.
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