Summer train: By the holiday season, the dollar will stabilize at 74 rubles.
By the beginning of summer, the exchange rate of the Russian currency will stabilize at around 74 rubles/$, while at the moment it may drop lower — to 73, and under favorable conditions — even to 70 rubles /$, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Currently, the ruble is being helped by three favorable factors at once: favorable commodity prices due to the situation in the Middle East, the temporary suspension of foreign currency purchases under the budget rule, and the still high key rate, which gives our assets an advantage over foreign ones. However, by the fall, these factors are likely to weaken, and with this, the dollar exchange rate will rise. What figures from the "American" should be expected by September and by the end of the year — in the Izvestia material.
What will be the dollar exchange rate in the summer
At the end of April, the ruble strengthened significantly, showing the strongest position in three years. At the exchange rate of the Central Bank, the dollar dropped below 75 rubles/$. In the baseline scenario, the significant strengthening of the ruble will stop at these figures, experts from the largest banks interviewed by Izvestia believe. According to them, such figures will remain throughout May, and by the beginning of the holiday season, the dollar will still be trading around 74-75 rubles.
The high rates are due to the fact that there are now three significant factors supporting the national currency at the same time. The first is high oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. If in January and February the price of Russian export raw materials was slightly above $40 per barrel, then in March it rose to $77 per barrel, and in April it went to $100 per barrel. This increased foreign exchange export earnings are entering the domestic market with a lag of about two months — that is, right now.
— We estimate the average price of Russian Urals export oil in the second quarter at $95 per barrel after $54 per barrel in the first quarter, — said Mikhail Vasiliev.
With such high oil prices, the Ministry of Finance usually buys foreign currency in reserves on the domestic market, which plays against the ruble. However, now the agency has temporarily (according to official statements — until July) suspended operations with currency according to the budget rule. This is the second significant support factor, says Viktor Grigoriev, chief analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
"In our opinion, it is the influx of high foreign exchange earnings, which will not be absorbed by the Ministry of Finance, that has become the main factor in strengthening the ruble," he said.
Finally, the third, more long—term factor is the still tight monetary policy, which ensures more attractive rates for ruble-denominated instruments compared to foreign currency ones, the RSHB concluded. Although the Central Bank lowered its key rate at the last meeting in April, it still remains high at 14.5%. The rates on ruble deposits in many banks are double—digit, and on foreign currency deposits they are near zero. It is unprofitable for both individuals and businesses to hold such assets. All this reduces the demand for the currency.
These factors will continue to operate in May, which will allow the exchange rate to gain a foothold in the range of 74-75 rubles/ $, according to the largest banks.
What will happen to the ruble in 2026
The ruble exchange rate is formed based on the balance of supply and demand for foreign currency in the market — and now this balance is quite stable, experts said. Unlike the situation, which caused the exchange rate to fluctuate in a wide range (from 120 to 50 rubles per dollar) a few years ago, now, on the one hand, export flows have adapted to the new conditions, and on the other, importers have found sustainable ways to pay for goods.
— Netting (offsetting obligations without actually transferring large amounts) is actively spreading. — Ed.) and ruble settlement schemes with foreign counterparties, which significantly reduces the physical need for foreign currency to service imports. So, according to the Central Bank, the share of ruble payment schemes for imports in February 2026 reached 58.8% (the average for 2025 was 54.2%)," said Denis Popov, managing expert of the PSB Analytics and Expertise Center.
Thus, no significant fluctuations are expected from the demand side of the currency. In the future, the exchange rate will largely depend on the supply of foreign money, respectively, on the situation with oil prices and on the development of the conflict in the Middle East. And the quotes are expected to gradually decline.
"The average price of Urals in the third quarter will be around $60 per barrel after $95 in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the exchange rate," predicts Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank.
The ruble will gradually but surely weaken due to other, longer-term reasons, according to the largest banks. It is expected that by the second half of the year, the Ministry of Finance will return to purchases of foreign currency according to the budget rule — this will reduce the supply of foreign money in the domestic market and weaken the exchange rate, said Denis Popov from the PSB.
In addition, economic activity usually picks up by autumn: demand from the population increases, which is met, among other things, by foreign goods. For their purchases, suppliers need a foreign currency. Also, throughout the summer, due to the holiday season, people will buy dollars and euros on the domestic market. Finally, the key interest rate is also expected to continue to fall gradually, which is why capital will flow from ruble assets to foreign currency assets.
— If by the beginning of summer we predict the dollar value to be no higher than 80 rubles, then by the end of the third quarter it will be around 82-85 rubles, — Denis Popov said.
By the end of the year, the ruble is likely to continue to lose ground, as high budget expenditures will put pressure on the national currency, said Maxim Tymoshenko, director of the Financial Markets Department at Russian Standard Bank. The more money the government spends, the more rubles flow into the economy, which devalues the national currency.
By the end of the year, oil prices may steadily settle below $70 per barrel, while foreign exchange earnings will be absorbed again due to the budget rule, Denis Popov expects. And the key rate is expected to drop to about 12.5%. Pavel Biryukov, Chief Economist at Gazprombank, summarized: as a result, by the end of the year, the exchange rate will be fixed at about 90-95 rubles/$.
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