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- In unfinished feelings: every seventh meter of housing among market leaders is rented late
In unfinished feelings: every seventh meter of housing among market leaders is rented late
The top five Russian developers are building more than 15% of housing with delays — now it is already 2.4 million square meters, according to information from the Unified Resource of Developers (ERZ), which was analyzed by Izvestia. According to these data, of the market leaders, the "Airplane" most often violates deadlines — it builds every third square meter of housing late, although back in February there were only a quarter delays. The problem in the market is related to the high key and difficult access to financing, experts say. Which other companies have delays become more common, how this affects shareholders and what to do if the project is delayed, — in the Izvestia article.
Which companies are delaying the delivery of facilities
Five top Russian developers are building more than 2.43 million square meters in violation of the deadline. The cost of housing is already 15.1%. Back in February, the share of delays was 12.7% (1.95 million square meters). At the same time, a year earlier, the indicator was almost five times lower — only 3.2% (503.8 thousand square meters).
Aeroplane has become one of the largest developers, and a third of all square meters (1.66 million square meters) are being built by this group of companies with a delay. m out of 4.95 million). Although two months ago, delays were recorded by the quarter.
Dogma's share of postponements has also increased since February, from 3.1% to 8.7%. But PIK and GK FGC showed a decrease in delinquency. The first is from 7.8% to 4%, and the second is from 6.5% to 4.4%.
Some smaller developers, according to ERZ data, have a worse situation with construction deadlines. For example, the Squadra Group of companies from Primorsky Krai and A101 Group of Companies from Moscow are building about half of the portfolio with delays, Metrix Development and AVA Group from Krasnodar Krai are building about 60%, and Seven Suns Development from St. Petersburg is postponing deadlines for all projects.
The gap between the indicators of the largest developers may be related to the sustainability of companies, says Valery Tumin, director of the Russian and CIS markets at Fam Properties. According to him, by the beginning of 2026, the project debt of the Aircraft reached about 650 billion rubles with escrow coverage of about 400 billion rubles. In such a situation, the pace of construction begins to be determined not by the production plan, but by the movement of money in the accounts, he noted.
The company previously applied to the state for a preferential loan of 50 billion rubles, but did not receive support.
Players such as Dogma and Exactly are also showing an increase in delays, but the reasons there are different — a narrower geography of sales. With a decrease in demand in regional markets, the financial cushion of such companies is running out faster than that of federal developers with a diversified portfolio of projects, noted Valery Tumin.
The multidirectional dynamics among market leaders may be related to a different approach to project management. Some players were very conservative about launching new objects. At the same time, Aeroplane has been actively increasing construction in recent years, probably adhering to a more risky strategy with a high debt burden. In the context of tighter financing, this provoked an increase in postponements, explained Kristina Gudym, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.
Izvestia sent inquiries to all the listed construction companies and to the Ministry of Construction.
How expensive money is changing the construction economy
The current statistics largely reflect the consequences of the rapid growth of the industry in 2024-2025, said Rigina Gordeeva, founder of the Bezfilter real estate agency. Back then, developers were actively launching new projects, hoping for high demand, but sales slowed down and the cost of financing increased sharply. When projects are sold out below 60%, the filling of escrow accounts slows down, which directly affects the pace of construction. With a key rate of about 15%, any drawdown in sales worsens the project's economy, the expert noted.
The increase in transfers is due to several factors at once: commissioning schedules, the stage of readiness of facilities and the availability of financing, added Yulia Bocharnikova, Executive director of the federal company Floors.
— The pressure is exerted by the high cost of credit resources and rising labor costs. Developers try to avoid peak financial pressures and sometimes deliberately adjust the construction time," she explained.
Some companies, she said, on the contrary, were able to improve their performance due to stricter project planning and sufficient marginality to accelerate contractors.
The end of the moratorium on penalties for postponing the transfer of apartments allowed the market to see the real picture of the industry, Yulia Bocharnikova believes. Until the beginning of this year, he played a significant role. While the sanctions were not actually applied, the postponements had almost no financial consequences for the developer.
According to Valery Tumin, the situation has changed since January 1: now the penalty is calculated as 1/150% of the contract value for each day of delay, and if you refuse to pay, a 5% fine is added. With an apartment priced at 10 million rubles, the daily penalty can reach about 10 thousand rubles. This forces companies to review construction schedules and speed up work.
At the same time, it is incorrect to talk about the deliberate delay of construction, Rigina Gordeeva clarified. The moratorium rather reduced the pressure on deadlines, and the current increase in postponements is largely a manifestation of accumulated problems that were not previously reflected in statistics.
Yuri Balabanov, Commercial Director of Alfastroyinvest Group, added that the moratorium served a stabilizing function and helped the industry to go through a difficult period without an avalanche of legal disputes.
Will the share of delays continue to grow
Experts believe that further growth of problematic facilities is quite possible. According to Valery Tumin, if the key rate does not fall below 13% by the summer, the share of projects with postponements from the largest developers may exceed 20% by the end of the year.
A scenario in which the share of transfers among market leaders will go beyond 20% is quite likely, Rigina Gordeeva agreed. According to her, it will depend not only on the readiness of the facilities, but also on two other things.: the speed of sales recovery in the second half of the year and the cost of financing. If demand does not revive, companies with aggressive portfolios and weak sales of individual queues will continue to face pressure on deadlines.
Yulia Bocharnikova also admitted that the 15-20% delay rate could become the new market norm under current financial conditions. Against this background, reducing the share of delays among individual players is becoming a competitive advantage in the fight for buyers, the expert believes. Acceleration of construction, according to her forecast, will begin closer to the end of 2026, when payments on penalties will become a real financial burden.
What does this mean for shareholders
Delays in the commissioning of housing primarily affect the interests of shareholders. Irina, a Muscovite, shared her story with Izvestia. Four years later, after a four-month delay in the delivery of the apartment by the developer "Airplane", she purchased a storage room in the same residential complex. Initially, the facility was planned to be transferred in April 2025, but as the deadline approached, the developer consistently postponed the date of commissioning: first for the summer period, and then for May 2026. At the time of publication, Irina still had not received the keys to the purchased property.
Waiting time is the main problem for shareholders. As Valery Tumin notes, with prolonged financial difficulties, the project may go through a rehabilitation ("recovery" process), a change of contractors or restructuring, which can increase the waiting period by one and a half to two years.
The market is moving towards consolidation: strong players will absorb weak ones, and a number of regional projects will be restructured, the expert expects. This is unpleasant, but manageable — the escrow mechanism was created for just such a scenario, the expert recalled. Due to it, in case of termination of construction, people will not be left without money and without housing.
But the risk for buyers lies not only in the delay in key transfer itself, but also in prolonging the period of uncertainty, Rigina Gordeeva added.
However, the legislation in such cases is on the side of the shareholder, said Ekaterina Medyakova, an expert at the Federal Methodological Center for Improving Financial Literacy of the Presidential Academy. If the delivery of the house is delayed, the citizen has the right to demand compensation. But it will not be possible to collect a penalty for the period from March 22, 2024 to December 31, 2025 ‑ all because of the same moratorium. Accrual is valid only from January 1, 2026, said Anatoly Kolesnikov, Associate Professor of the Department of Innovation and Industrial Policy Management at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
The first step is to wait for the signing of the acceptance certificate and fix the date of the actual receipt of housing, Ekaterina Medyakova noted. Then you need to send a written claim to the developer demanding payment of the penalty, attaching copies of the DDU and the act. If the company has not responded or refused to pay, the shareholder has the right to go to court. The alternative is to terminate the DDA unilaterally and return all funds with interest.
An important caveat: the government has introduced a delay in the execution of court decisions on old delays (until 2026) until January 1, 2027 — the money is credited, but it will be possible to receive it later, Anatoly Kolesnikov noted. There are no restrictions on new delays (from January 1, 2026), although the courts may grant installments to the developer. Experts advise saving all documents, recording dates, and, if necessary, consulting with lawyers specializing in housing law.
Lifting the moratorium improves the position of shareholders. However, the general increase in the number of delays means that there may be more litigation, and the process of actually receiving money will take longer. For the family, this means additional costs for rent, postponement of repairs and, in general, a higher cost of the apartment, summarized Rigina Gordeeva.
Experts agree that the increase in transfers is becoming not so much a sign of the construction crisis as an indicator of the new development economy — an era of expensive money, cautious demand and tougher financial discipline. For buyers, this means one thing: they will increasingly have to choose an apartment not only based on price and location, but also on the sustainability of the company that builds the house.
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