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- Consider the NPT: Iran is looking for ways to resolve the conflict with the United States
Consider the NPT: Iran is looking for ways to resolve the conflict with the United States
The United States has offered Iran to resume negotiations, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said during a visit to St. Petersburg. After Islamabad and Muscat, he arrived in the Northern capital of Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. The Russian President assured that Moscow would do everything to achieve peace as soon as possible. According to media reports, Iran is now allegedly offering the United States to open Hormuz and cease hostilities, and in return to postpone negotiations on the nuclear program for 10 years. The 11th NPT Review Conference, which started that day, now promises to be tense - Iran has already hinted at withdrawing from the treaty. The NPT compliance regime is under tremendous pressure, and this is largely due to the aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
What Vladimir Putin and Abbas Araqchi discussed
The discussion on the settlement of the Middle East conflict has moved to St. Petersburg. It was there that Russian President Vladimir Putin received the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Abbas Araqchi. In fact, it is he who is now mainly broadcasting Tehran's position in the international information space. The politician arrived from Muscat and Islamabad in the Northern capital of Russia on a plane with the hashtag "Minab 168" on board — that's how many students became victims of the American-Israeli strike on February 28 on a school in a city in southern Iran. And even this suggests that Tehran is unlikely to agree unconditionally to accept the terms of the United States and its "surrender." The choice of the parties for consultations is also not accidental.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the representative of the President of Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi during the meeting
"Iran and Russia are strategic partners. The Russians have always supported us, and we have always supported the Russians. Our cooperation will continue," Araqchi said in response to a question from a Izvestia correspondent about Moscow's support ahead of the talks.
The composition of the delegation also speaks about Moscow's serious intention to help Tehran and find a way out of the difficult situation in the Middle East. Along with Vladimir Putin, in addition to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, also took part in the meeting. He also led, for example, the Russian delegation at the talks in Abu Dhabi on the Ukrainian crisis. Araqchi was accompanied by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi and Iranian Ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali.
At the beginning of the talks in the Presidential Library, Vladimir Putin said that he had received a message from Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, but preferred not to disclose its contents.
The Russian President noted the courage of the Iranian people in the struggle for their independence and sovereignty, expressing hope that peace will come as soon as possible.
— For our part, we will do everything that meets your interests, meets the interests of all the peoples of the region, so that this peace can be achieved as quickly as possible. You know our position well," Vladimir Putin said.
Araqchi conveyed his "best and warmest wishes" to the Russian leader at the request of Mojtaba Khamenei and Iranian President Massoud Peseshkian, and also thanked for Iran's support.
Tehran relies on a multi-vector approach when interacting with the main intermediaries and, having learned from experience, tries not to focus on one of them, orientalist Leonid Tsukanov draws attention. Even before the war, the United States and Iran negotiated a nuclear program through Oman.
— Pakistan is convenient as a platform for meetings outside the Middle East, Oman as a window of communication with the United States, and Russia as a guarantor of compliance with the obligations assumed by the parties. It is the latter that the current negotiating track around the Iranian conflict lacks," the expert said.
At the same time, Russia is not trying to present itself as a unique mediator and become the main negotiating platform in this case, but it has certain opportunities in cooperation with China or regional players interested in de-escalation, as well as, surprisingly, with the United States, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an expert told Izvestia. The Valdai Club by Grigory Lukyanov.
— Actually, this is one of the topics of these Russian-American talks — to not only try to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, but also to discuss a wide range of issues, including bilateral trade, investment, and cooperation to resolve significant regional and global issues. Given the stalemate of the situation, the Russian-American track of interaction can provide constructive assistance," he argues.
In Pakistan and Oman, according to the Fars news agency, Araqchi has discussed in recent days the lifting of the US naval blockade, compensation payments and guarantees of non-aggression against the Islamic Republic. Specifically in Muscat, the agenda allegedly included the creation of mechanisms to regulate transit through the Strait of Hormuz, including possible fees from passing ships, which is unlikely to find a response among global market participants.
Why can't the US and Iran reach an agreement
On the same day, April 27, the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran was supposed to take place in Islamabad, but they broke down at the last moment. Trump, probably to "fill the price", personally canceled the trip of his main negotiators on all issues — Special envoy Steven Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.
However, this seemingly stalemate did not put an end to the settlement process. At least Trump, though clearly unhappy with his move, allows a telephone conversation. "All they have to do is call!!!" he wrote on social media. In addition, Pakistani officials on condition of anonymity said that indirect negotiations are continuing between the parties.
The day before, it was reported that Iran allegedly offered the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cease hostilities, but postpone negotiations on the nuclear program for 10 years. At the same time, after meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg, Araqchi said that the United States had offered Iran negotiations and Tehran was now considering this possibility.
— Washington is not sure yet whether it is worth agreeing to Tehran's proposal. Part of the Trump team is opposed, demanding full US control over Iran's highly enriched uranium, as well as Israel, for which Iran's nuclear reserve remains a serious threat, Tsukanov says.
Moscow could also play a constructive role in this issue and is ready to help in the export of enriched uranium from Iran, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
— It has also been officially stated on several occasions that we are ready. We are keeping our proposal in force, but it does not seem to be of interest to Iran yet, since there are no agreements on this," the senator said.
After Araqchi's negotiating tour, the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, said that the future agreement should unequivocally prevent Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. In the coming weeks, this issue is likely to focus the attention of the entire global community.
On April 27, the 11th Review Conference on the Operation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) kicked off at the UN headquarters in New York. For obvious reasons, it promises to be one of the most intense. A month after the start of the war, Iran hinted that it was seriously considering withdrawing from the agreement. Such a decision will cause a "domino effect" in the region: other countries will consider the restrictions imposed by the treaty not in their interests. The risks of violating the NPT are enormous, Konstantin Kosachev stressed.
"There is no doubt that the NPT regime is under tremendous pressure, and much of this pressure is related to the aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran, a country that is in the treaty and, according to the IAEA, does not violate it," he said.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is also not resolved in any way. Vessels continue to pass through the waterway with varying success and in a very limited format. Seven tankers were reported per day, including from Iranian ports. For comparison, before the conflict, the strait hosted about 140 ships daily. Oil prices have "calmed down" so far, but the total uncertainty still makes them fluctuate. On April 27, Brent crude futures for June delivery rose by about 1% to $106.55 per barrel. A little later, for the first time since April 7, the price has already exceeded $109 per barrel.
Nevertheless, the parties have given enough signals that they are ready to negotiate, Grigory Lukyanov believes.
— Another thing is that they disagree not only on all the main issues, but also perceive the nature and duration of the negotiation process differently. If Trump needs an agreement here and now that will consolidate his status as a winner and Iran's surrender, then Tehran needs long negotiations to back up the claims that Iran not only did not lose and survived, but also managed to strengthen its position in the region, the expert said.
The parties' unwillingness to compromise forces them to look for new formats, including through the involvement of other players, including Russia.
And if Washington and Tehran can resolve the issue of the nuclear program and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on their own, if they wish, then an escalation between Israel and Lebanon can disrupt any agreements at any moment. And although the truce was extended for another three weeks last week, the temporary cease-fire regime bears little resemblance to it. On the night of April 24, the IDF reported intercepting Hezbollah rockets, and on April 27, the Israeli army began attacking the infrastructure of the Shiite movement in the Bekaa and in several areas in southern Lebanon. The military wing of Hezbollah stated that they were going to resort to the assistance of suicide groups in order to counter Israel.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
