Burden of delivery: Will robots replace couriers
Most couriers are not afraid of being replaced by delivery robots, but they worry that their "colleagues" who are equipped with the latest technology will significantly devalue their work. It's almost impossible to compete with rovers, but you can't do without the human factor either. How to adapt to the new realities of life, how much automated delivery services cost and which areas of activity to pay attention to for those who want to be on trend — in the material of Izvestia.
How to survive in an era of change
Digitalization and automation are noticeably changing the economic appearance of the world and the way of life, but there is no need to panic, says Daria Serebryakova, a clinical psychologist and deputy head of the rehabilitation program at Dr. Isaeva's Clinic.
— There have been predictions about the "end" of habitual forms of life more than once in history. For example, they once said that the theater would disappear with the advent of cinema," she says. — There were also larger-scale shifts, such as the scientific and technological revolution of the late 19th century. Technological changes are not new to humanity. And, as we can see, this has not led to the disappearance of people or professions.
But people have different attitudes to change, the expert notes. Those who are prone to depressive reactions and are not ready to withstand temporary discomfort are more likely to find themselves in a more vulnerable position. At the same time, others use the crisis as a growth point.
— It is enough to recall the financial crisis on Wall Street or the transformations of the 1990s: someone was experiencing the loss of their former way of life, and someone was mastering new types of activities, starting a business, - explains the clinical psychologist.
If we talk about current innovations — robot couriers, drones, self-driving cars — then it is obvious that these processes do not occur simultaneously, the Izvestia interlocutor reassures. Therefore, people have time to adapt and rebuild.
— Moreover, along with new technologies, new problems inevitably arise. And economics and technology, as a rule, develop precisely in response to these new challenges," Serebryakova continues. — Back in the early and mid-20th century, physical survival was a key task in many countries. People lived in large families, conducted agricultural farming, and were engaged mainly in manual labor. Today, we face other problems — for example, not hunger, but obesity. And this leads to the emergence of new professions: nutritionists, nutritionists, psychologists and other specialists.
From the expert's point of view, the geopolitical situation also influences the changes. It generates various tasks: the development of technologies, including in the military sphere, biomedicine, and the creation of health products. The expert calls all this new directions and an opportunity for other professional roles.
"The main recommendation is not to catastrophize what is happening, but to rely on historical experience and one's own psychological resources," the expert continues. — When the previous living conditions become impossible, it becomes necessary to look for new forms of existence, as happened, for example, during the transition from a rural lifestyle to an urban lifestyle.
The editorial's interlocutor advises to include imagination, the ability to model a situation, and the search for non-standard solutions. These psychological qualities are especially important in unstable periods, as they allow us to find original, sometimes unexpected, but effective ways to adapt.
Why are delivery companies not afraid of competitors
The official partner of the Federal Tax Service, the Qugo freelance staff automation service, asked 1,700 couriers from different regions of Russia how they feel about robotics and what they expect from it. The results of the study were at the disposal of Izvestia. The majority of respondents are not afraid of being replaced by machines, but of the devaluation of their work, emphasizes Elena Usacheva, CEO of the service.
Contrary to stereotypes, couriers' incomes are not high, especially if we are not talking about megacities. 50% of respondents earn up to 30 thousand rubles per month, 24% — from 30 thousand to 50 thousand, 15% — 50-70 thousand, and above 70 thousand — 11%. Only 7% of respondents identify delivery as the main activity that they plan to continue. Almost half (46%) say that this is an additional income if they have a main job. One in three (33%) sees couriering as a temporary part-time job in search of something else, while 14% use this type of activity to save up for a specific goal.
— When asked how couriers feel about the humanoid appearance of robots, the majority (36%) reacted positively. They noted that this is logical and reasonable from a business point of view, since people trust anthropomorphic robots more," explains the editorial interlocutor. — Another 35% say that this indicates that courier work is quite difficult, since you have to imitate a person. A smaller proportion (21%) said they didn't care what robots looked like, while 8% felt the effect of the "sinister valley" — they found the resemblance of robots to humans strange and unpleasant.
According to economists, the maintenance of a courier robot (or rover) costs 49-66% less than the salary of a foot courier. However, as indicated in the service, this circumstance does not bother 25% of respondents at all, and almost the same number (27%) treat it neutrally. But 33% of respondents are alarmed primarily by the fact that companies will start to "put pressure on tariffs", knowing about a cheaper alternative, and also fear that they will receive fewer available orders and shifts.
Experts attribute the coolness of delivery workers to the fact that 93% of couriers perceive this work as temporary. According to workers in this field, robotization is a threat to specific earnings for a specific period, not to a career. The service also noted that the low degree of concern about high-tech competitors is due, in particular, to the fact that 55% of the couriers surveyed do not even know about humanoid delivery robots, 36% have heard out of the corner of their ear, and only 9% "follow the topic."
The fear of competition is practically unknown to Russians working in delivery. Only a third of the respondents (31%) believe that robots will actually start taking orders from people, but they are confident that this will happen no earlier than in 3-5 years. 27% of respondents hope that delivery automation will happen in 10 years, or even later. Optimists (21%) are confident that this will never happen. 11% say that automation is already underway, and 10% expect changes within a couple of years.
— When the respondents were asked to imagine that in three years robots would take half of the orders in their city, they divided into groups. The largest — 34% — said they would try to move into related roles: to become a robot operator, logistician or dispatcher. 29% replied that in this case they are not going to change anything, but only see how everything will be. 23% of respondents would start learning a new profession, and 12% of respondents believe that they would work as much as possible while they have an income and save money," says Usacheva.
The main problems of robots
According to experts, couriers know exactly what their advantage over robots is. They put live communication in the first place.: they are sure that it is the person who is important to many customers, not the car. Deliverymen also rely on the ability to get out of emergency situations, which include a broken intercom, conflict with a customer, and lack of communication. They also point out that only a person can climb the stairs if there is no elevator, carefully transfer fragile items and take an additional errand along the way. Someone is sure that they know the city better than any navigator. "The robot is programmed for one thing — to deliver the cargo. The person decides everything else," the deliverymen argue. They are least afraid of the invasion of robots in regions where it is difficult to overcome snow-covered streets in winter and in the off-season.
"As for the role of human communication and empathy in an environment where artificial intelligence is taking on more and more routine tasks, there is a paradoxical trend here," says Daria Serebryakova. — On the one hand, we have technologies that minimize personal contact: digital services, online communications, delivery. On the other hand, we see an increasing shortage of live communication and, as a result, an increase in the number of depressive states and addictions.
The need for contact, acceptance, and intimacy is not a social convention, but a basic biological necessity, the clinical psychologist emphasizes.
"There are neurobiological mechanisms associated with attachment, body contact, and so—called social stroking," she comments. — And in this sense, digitalization rather does not reduce the importance of communication, but, on the contrary, increases the need for it. This is likely to lead to further development of areas related to communication, support, education, and psychological assistance. We can already see how many difficulties people have, for example, in raising children, even against the background of relative material well-being.
Thus, digitalization does not so much reset human roles as redistribute accents. And in this process, it is important to maintain the ability to adapt, not succumb to catastrophic scenarios, and rely on both historical experience and an understanding of one's own psychological stability.
Should I be afraid of robots
Only 4% of respondents complain that robots will sooner or later displace humans from delivery, and 8% ask not to deprive people of the opportunity to earn money, "not to take away their bread" and think about those who will lose their jobs.
— 39% of respondents believe that the state should protect jobs and limit the replacement of couriers by robots, — comments Elena Usacheva. — 35% believe that this is a business matter. 18% choose a compromise: let them replace them, but companies must pay compensation and help them retrain. One in 12 (8%) says they don't care.
Couriers even feel sorry for potential competitors in their own way, believing that there are many dangers lurking on the street. Among the "sympathetic" statements are the following: "Count down the seconds until your robot is disassembled for spare parts or when it gets hit by a car"; "In remote areas, the robot will disappear for spare parts"; "They spend time in the rain".
While some delivery companies don't really think about whether scientific and technological progress can be reconciled with the human factor, others make very constructive suggestions. For example, they believe that robots should be given heavy parcels and night shifts, and people should be left where flexibility in communication and decision-making is needed. Hence the willingness to switch to the role of an operator or dispatcher: leaving the profession has already been planned, the robot simply speeds up the deadlines, Usacheva emphasizes.
— When couriers are told that a robot is cheaper than a walking courier, they react not with fear, but with concern about tariffs. People understand that companies will put pressure on rates, knowing that there is a cheaper alternative," the expert continues. — The robot doesn't even need to go outside to change the market. It is enough that it exists and everyone knows its cost. The toughest competition is not at the moment when an alternative appears, but at the moment when it becomes known.
Nevertheless, Daria Serebryakova suggests not to consider what is happening as an unprecedented catastrophe.
"New technologies really change the way of life, but at the same time create space for new tasks and, consequently, new professions," she summarizes.
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