Zero doubt: near-zero inflation may last about a month
Prices in Russia have actually taken a pause — for the second week in a row, inflation has been at zero. Such a regime, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia, may last about a month. The dynamics are being held back by a strong ruble, weak consumer demand and a halt in the growth of utility tariffs. However, this lull is temporary: by the end of spring, prices will start to rise again, and in summer they may move to a seasonal decline, analysts believe. How stable this trend is and what will happen to the key one is in the Izvestia article.
How much have prices changed in Russia in the spring of 2026
From April 7 to April 13, prices in the country actually froze — an increase of 0.0%. Over the next week, they increased by only 0.01%, according to Rosstat data. In annual terms, inflation reached 5.8% by April 20.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that this trend will continue for some time. According to the financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Alexey Rodin's Capital, these values will last a maximum of two weeks.
Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult agency, shares a similar point of view. According to her, a weak price increase may persist until the end of April or the first half of May. At the same time, there is no question of a long-term slowdown in inflation. The expert explained that the structure of consumption traditionally changes in May and June, as demand for services, tourism and individual products increases. Against this background, weekly indicators may turn into a moderate plus again. However, this will not mean an acceleration of inflation, but a return to the usual pace after a period of calm.
Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, allows for a longer period of low inflation. In his opinion, the near—zero dynamics may last until the second half of May or even the beginning of June. However, then price growth can accelerate, according to economist Andrei Barkhota. He recalled that by the middle of summer, seasonal deflation usually forms due to cheaper food. But already in autumn, inflationary pressures tend to increase again.
In general, by the end of 2026, experts expect prices to rise by about 5%. This is higher than the September forecast of the Ministry of Energy (4%). The Central Bank gives a more cautious forecast — 4.5–5.5% on average for the year. The regulator expects steady inflation to approach the target 4% in the second half of the year.
Rosstat told Izvestia that it was incorrect to talk about a complete halt in price growth, since the dynamics are influenced by many factors, including seasonal demand. As Vladimir Chernov explained, inflation has not gone into negative territory — it's just that certain categories of goods and services behave differently. In mid—April, cucumbers fell by 4%, tomatoes by 1.2%, and eggs by almost 0.5%. At the same time, the cost of fuel increased: gasoline went up by 0.2%, diesel — by 0.1%, and services added another 0.1%.
Why does weekly inflation remain near zero
The dynamics of weekly inflation is now influenced by several factors at once. One of the key ones is the ruble exchange rate. Its strengthening restrains the growth of import prices and reduces business costs, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to the Central Bank, since the beginning of April, the dollar has fallen in price by almost 10% and dropped below 75 rubles.
Expensive oil provides additional support to the ruble. The Urals price remains above $100 per barrel, and the Ministry of Finance has temporarily suspended operations under the budget rule, explained Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.
However, the situation may change in the near future. As reported by the Ministry of Finance on April 23, starting in May, the agency will prematurely resume operations with currency and gold according to the budget rule after a two-month pause. Initially, they were planned to be suspended until July. The return of operations, as explained in the ministry, is aimed at increasing the stability of the economy and reducing dependence on oil prices.
Another factor is cooling demand. The high key rate constrains both consumption and investment, which slows down price growth, said Alina Poptsova, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company. Although the Bank of Russia has already started the rate reduction cycle, it still remains in double digits at 15%.
Tariff policy also played a role. The contribution of housing and communal services and transport to inflation is now minimal, since tariff growth has been suspended, says Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Presidential Academy. Price revisions in these categories are not expected in the near future.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy.
What could accelerate inflation in 2026
At the beginning of 2026, inflation accelerated, with an increase in VAT becoming the main factor. By spring, its pace began to slow down, but it is premature to talk about the complete disappearance of risks.
Inflation expectations of the population and businesses remain high (and exceed the real price growth by almost half), and this limits the possibility of a quick rate cut, said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
The external environment creates additional uncertainty. Earlier, the Bank of Russia pointed out the risks associated with the conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran. According to the expert, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may push up prices for raw materials, metals and fertilizers, as well as complicate logistics — all this increases inflationary pressure both in the world and in Russia.
A separate risk is the situation on the labor market. Staff shortages and rapid wage growth can drive up prices if productivity does not keep pace with revenue, said Vasily Kutyin, Ingo Bank's Director of Analytics.
At the same time, the Central Bank traditionally does not rely on weekly inflation data when making decisions on the key rate, Olga Belenkaya from Finam reminded. Nevertheless, a combination of two factors — the zero price dynamics in recent weeks and the strengthening of the ruble — may affect the rhetoric of the regulator.
As predicted by Izvestia, at the meeting on April 24, the Central Bank may lower the key rate for the third time in a row — by 0.5 percentage points, to 14.5%.
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