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- Apply for a rate: the Central Bank is expected to reduce the key rate to 14.5 in April.%
Apply for a rate: the Central Bank is expected to reduce the key rate to 14.5 in April.%
At the meeting on April 24, the Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.5 percentage points for the third time in a row, to 14.5%, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. Since the last meeting, the inflation situation has been developing better than the Bank of Russia's expectations. And the economy is growing, on the contrary, slower than expected — that is, the regulator has no reason to pause. However, he will reduce the bet slowly and carefully so as not to upset the established balance. How this will affect deposits, loans and mortgages is described in the Izvestia article.
The Central Bank's key rate meeting in April 2026
The results of the April key rate meeting can be considered one of the most predictable in recent times. All 15 analysts surveyed by Izvestia are convinced that the Central Bank will reduce it by 0.5 percentage points, to 14.5%. They note that options for keeping the rate at 15% and reducing it immediately by 1 percentage point, to 14%, will also be on the table. However, in the basic scenario, the solution will still be in the middle.
At the two previous meetings, in February and March 2026, the Central Bank also lowered the rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5 and 15%, respectively.
Following the results of the March meeting, the Bank of Russia gave a soft signal, recalled Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. As a result, the prevailing conditions really allow the regulator to reduce the key.
— The inflation situation, which the Central Bank primarily focuses on when making a rate decision, is developing along the lower boundary of the baseline forecast in the first quarter. The Bank of Russia expected the annual rate of price growth in the first quarter to be 5.8–6.8%. Rosstat reported that the figure in March was 5.9%, — said Mikhail Vasiliev.
At the same time, according to him, the economic situation at the beginning of the year, on the contrary, turned out to be worse than forecast. The Central Bank expected that GDP growth in the first quarter would be 1.1–2.1%. At the same time, as the Ministry of Energy reported, the indicator did not grow, but decreased — by 2.1% in January and by 1.5% in February in annual terms. There is no data for the quarter yet.
The PMI business activity indices for March indicated a decline in both industry and the services sector. This is due, among other things, to the regulator's policy: when money is expensive, it is more difficult to develop a business (at least because it is expensive to borrow money to grow a company). Supporting the economy is not a direct task of the Bank of Russia, but it is an important factor that is taken into account by the Board of Directors.
In addition, the strengthening of the ruble will have a positive impact on the Central Bank's decision, added Pavel Biryukov, chief economist at Gazprombank. The exchange rate has already dropped to 75 rubles/$ and may go even lower against the background of the likely receipt of good export earnings, which high oil prices allow.
"Inflation also has the potential to slow down in the future due to the decisions taken to limit gasoline exports (and a number of other exports) and a gradual deterioration in the solvency of the population," said Viktor Grigoriev, chief analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
Based on these data, the Central Bank could accelerate the reduction of the key rate. But there are also risks that favor more cautious steps. First of all, we are talking about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which introduces a lot of uncertainty in terms of its impact on the economies of the whole world and Russia, said Maxim Timoshenko, director of the Financial Markets Department at Russian Standard Bank.
The main factor causing concerns about inflation expectations remains the growth of budget expenditures. Although they will be partially offset by favorable energy prices due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, they still remain high and show a tendency to further increase, he explained. The higher the budget expenditures, the more money flows into the economy, and this accelerates inflation.
Data on the labor market may also be in favor of some caution, where real wages in January (published with a large lag) showed significant growth, probably due to an increase in the minimum wage from January 1 by 21% year—on-year, Pavel Biryukov added. If salaries increase, people spend more money, and this contributes to rising prices.
Finally, inflation expectations in March are still elevated, noted in IC "Veles Capital". If people assume that prices will rise, they can accelerate their purchases now, which will really accelerate the cost of goods at the moment. Taking into account these factors, in order to maintain a balance between the economy and inflation, the Central Bank will reduce its key rate cautiously by 0.5 percentage points, analysts interviewed by Izvestia concluded.
What will happen to deposits, loans, mortgages
In recent months, the market has been reacting more and more sluggishly to the decline in the key rate, said Anton Pavlov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Absolut Bank. He stressed that a minimal decrease would not lead to significant changes in the financial market and the economy, but would allow the trend to continue, which is very important in the context of a decline in business activity.
However, there will still be a slight movement. For deposits, rates may continue to decrease at a rate of 0.5–0.6 percentage points per month, for loans — 0.2–0.3 percentage points per month, Zenit Bank predicts.
— Two weeks after the meeting, we can see the average maximum deposit rate around 13%. And by the end of the year, yields may drop to 11-12%," Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank expects.
In general, according to him, depositors should fix today's favorable rates for as long as possible.
In terms of loans, there are now quite significant measures in place by the Central Bank, which limit banks' ability to issue consumer loans, especially to people with a high debt burden, the expert added. Therefore, the rates on them will decrease slowly. In general, loans will remain unprofitable for a long time, so borrowers should carefully plan their financial capabilities, he concluded.
— Following the Central Bank's decision on the key issue, the mortgage market will begin to grow slowly. Demand may pick up, especially in the second half of the year. In the context of the general economic situation, the rate cut will support consumption, investment and business activity," said Sergey Maltsev, MTS Bank's Director of Investment and Premium Services.
At the same time, as early as June, the regulator is able to accelerate the rate cut and immediately reduce it by 1 percentage point. This is the basic scenario, said Denis Popov, managing expert of the PSB Center for Analytics and Expertise. This will happen if the ruble strengthens for a long time. The NRA is more restrained in its forecasts: in June, the board of directors may take a break and keep the rate unchanged, focusing on inflation expectations.
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