Prices and information: Russia will return to mortgages at 9-10% with lower inflation

Market mortgages in Russia may fall in price again to 9-10% no earlier than the end of 2027, experts interviewed by Izvestia estimated. Achieving such a balance is possible only with a steady decrease in inflation, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in her annual report to the State Duma. In the meantime, the regulator is acting cautiously: the economy is running at capacity, the labor market is almost exhausted, and loans have been growing at a faster pace. Any sharp policy easing can accelerate prices again. What will happen to the rates in MFIs and loans from defrauded shareholders is in the Izvestia article.

When will market mortgages become available

The main social issue for the Central Bank today is housing affordability. It is through him that citizens most strongly feel the value of money in the economy. At the same time, expensive mortgages are not an independent problem, but a consequence of inflation, stressed the head of the Bank of Russia, speaking in the State Duma with a report on the results of the regulator's work in 2025.

— This is a solvable task. Moreover, we have already had such an experience," Elvira Nabiullina said, recalling the situation in 2019.

At that time, inflation was around the target 4%, and market mortgage rates dropped to 9-10% per annum or even lower, the head of the Central Bank said. During the year, banks issued about 1.3 million loans, a volume comparable to current figures, but with almost no government support, she explained.

The market works differently today. Preferential programs form the main demand, while the classic mortgage remains too expensive for most families. It is possible to return to the previous balance only with a steady decrease in inflation, the head of the regulator explained.

That is why the Central Bank maintains tight monetary conditions, despite business pressure and market expectations.

Market mortgage rates at 9-10% are not a matter for the next few years, despite the fact that the Central Bank expects inflation to reach a steady 4% in the second half of 2026, market participants believe.

— This is definitely not a one- or two-year horizon. Last time, inflation reached the target 4% in 2017, and a massively affordable mortgage appeared only by 2019. First, the economy must get used to stable prices, and only then banks begin to issue long—term loans at low rates," says Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at Fam Properties.

According to him, even with a successful scenario, a return to a "normal" market mortgage is possible no earlier than 2028-2029.

Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of Flip, gave a more positive forecast. According to him, if the positive trend continues and there are no external challenges, the 9% rate can be reached at the end of 2027.

This level will be a green light for many when applying for a mortgage.

Why is the Central Bank in no hurry to lower the rate

Inflation is already slowing down: last year it was 5.6%, the lowest level in five years. But this is not enough, the regulator believes.

— It's still a lot. People are overreacting to rising prices, and this shows that high inflation cannot be tolerated," Nabiullina said.

The head of the Central Bank separately stressed that the regulator is deliberately not going to quickly reduce the cost of loans, despite the demand of the economy.

— Attempts to say that let's give away cheap money with a big gesture will inevitably lead to an increase in inflation. We went through this in 2024, when it was accelerating rapidly. And you can't step on this rake. You can't develop at the expense of citizens' pockets," she said.

According to Nabiullina, the current cycle is fundamentally different from past crises. If in 2014-2015 the economy suffered from weak demand and unloaded capacities, now the situation is reversed: the labor market is almost exhausted, lending in previous years grew at double-digit rates, and demand began to outpace production capacity.

That is why the Bank of Russia reduces the rate gradually, pausing between decisions. Since June 2025, it has already dropped from 21% to 15%, but further easing is possible only if we are confident that inflation is steadily returning to the target.

When will the digital ruble begin to be actively implemented

Answering questions from parliamentarians, Nabiullina dispelled concerns about the forced introduction of the digital ruble. The mass launch is scheduled for September 1, 2026, but it will be mandatory only for banks and retail outlets.

According to her, the infrastructure should be ready to launch from September, but people will be able to use the new form of money only at will. Accounts will not be opened automatically to anyone.

The Central Bank expects that the instrument will become an alternative payment method thanks to free transfers for citizens and reduced fees for businesses, she explained.

In the report, the Central Bank also drew attention to the protection of customers from financial fraud. The previously adopted laws are already having an effect, said Elvira Nabiullina.

According to her, about 20 million people have self-signed up for loans in less than a year, and interest in the tool continues to grow. The regulator believes that banks should actively inform customers about this possibility.

At the same time, the main risk is still associated with phone attacks by fraudsters. The central bank expects a tougher reaction from telecom operators.

— If the operator sees that a person is being attacked by scammers, he must not only warn the bank, but also break the connection, — said the head of the Central Bank.

Without this link, the protection system remains incomplete, she added.

What will be the maximum overpayment for microloans?

The head of the Central Bank recalled the completion of the next stage of the microfinance market reform. Starting in April 2026, regulations limiting overpayment of loans to 100% of the debt amount will come into force.

— That is, I took 10 thousand, gave no more than 20 thousand, even if there was a delay, — Nabiullina explained. — Let me remind you that we started with a limit of 400%, that is, with five times the amount of debt, and you can see that we are consistently lowering this ceiling.

The plans are to introduce a rule according to which a person cannot have more than one expensive loan at the same time, and establish a cooling—off period between the repayment of one and the issuance of the next. This should break the debt chains leading to financial difficulties.

At the same time, the Central Bank continues to fight black creditors, who are especially dangerous when registering housing as collateral. Last year, according to Nabiullina, more than a thousand such illegal structures were identified.

Will banks write off loans to defrauded shareholders

The Central Bank also touched upon the problems of defrauded shareholders who were guided by the lists of "verified" developers published by banks. Although such lists did not provide a formal guarantee, people perceived them as confirmation of the reliability of projects, said the chairman of the Bank of Russia.

— In our opinion, banks have a share of responsibility for this, — said the head of the regulator.

The Central Bank is already working with credit institutions, and the number of settled cases is growing. Banks are recommended to offer restructuring, and in some cases, partially or completely write off debts to affected borrowers. The possibility of tightening the requirements for developers who are allowed to finance projects is also being considered, Elvira Nabiullina added.