How Europe is facing the energy crisis and who it will affect. Analysis

Germany risks oil shortages due to the termination of supplies from Kazakhstan via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Earlier, the risk of energy shortages due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forced some EU countries to talk about resuming relations with Russia, but the EU authorities insist on supporting Kiev and weakening Moscow, and citizens are offered to "tighten their belts." How the energy crisis affects the EU countries and where Europe is looking for funds to support Ukraine — in the Izvestia article.

Will the EU return to fuel purchases in Russia

• Efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine and restore relations with Russia, at least in terms of energy purchases, were proposed in 2026 not only by Hungary and Slovakia, which remain dependent on Russian oil supplies, but also by Belgium, which increased purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by more than two-thirds compared to with a period until 2022. At the same time, Belgium transits gas to Germany and the Netherlands.

• The European Union has not listened to these arguments and continues to insist on reducing dependence on Russian energy resources. At the same time, the EU is increasingly dependent on supplies from the United States — according to the Bruegel European research center, Norway (30%) and the United States (26%) are the leading gas suppliers to the EU, while the share of Russian gas is only 12%. The EU's green policy is also exacerbating the situation, as the emissions trading system makes the electric power industry too expensive. EU members advocate the suspension of the system, at least for those companies that produce electricity.

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• The EU can turn to Russian energy purchases and ease restrictions imposed on oil and gas from Russia only if the conflict in the Middle East drags on catastrophically and Qatari gas is blocked for more than three months. Taking into account the time to restore the operation of gas terminals in Qatar and supply logistics, the cost of gas may soar to a critical level of $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters, and in this case the price of Russia's political confrontation will be too high for the EU.

The situation in the European energy sector

• Europe's dependence on Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) is relatively low — supplies account for 8% of all European LNG imports or 4% of gas imports. On March 2, when it became known that Qatar had suspended LNG production, gas prices in Europe increased by 45%. The main risk for the EU at that time was not so much a reduction in supplies from Qatar as increased competition for American fuel (26% of imports) with Asian countries, which further spurred price increases. At the same time, most of the EU's gas imports are linked to the spot market, reflecting the current cost of fuel. By the beginning of March, the volume of EU gas storage facilities was less than 30%.

• At the end of March, the European Commission called on Europeans to work from home, to which the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) stated that employees should not pay for remote work, including electricity, which is spent on work tasks. It is also recommended that EU member states reduce the speed limit on motorways, encourage the use of public transport, use cars and planes less, and expand vehicle sharing. The head of the EU energy department, Dan Jorgensen, warned that even in the event of an immediate peace in the Middle East, a return to the old life should not be expected in the near future.

On the pipeline: Kiev uses Druzhba to blackmail the new Hungarian authorities

Due to Ukraine's policy in Europe, the number of supporters of dialogue with Russia is growing

• EU authorities and European analysts note that the switch to wind turbines and solar panels has significantly mitigated the expected effects of the energy crisis on Europe: the EU still relies on fossil resources by 70%, but gas consumption for electricity generation has been reduced by a third. EU citizens have reduced gas consumption by 8% due to the use of heat pumps, lower house temperatures and thermal insulation, while industrial costs have decreased by 26% due to the closure of production facilities. But there is nowhere to reduce consumption further.

• Transmission and storage of energy from renewable sources are limited by infrastructure, which the EU does not have enough funds to expand. In addition, gas for the energy sector remains in demand even in prosperous Spain, where fossil fuels provide only 15% of electricity: the operation of gas-fired power plants is necessary to maintain a balance in the energy system, which is prone to failures. In February 2026, Spain increased purchases of Russian LNG by 2.1 times compared to the same period last year.

Aviation crisis

• Oil from the Persian Gulf countries is the main raw material for the production of jet fuel — Europe imported 75% of all jet fuel from the region. The threat of fuel shortages caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to isolate European countries: air carriers are forced to reduce flights, since, according to the calculations of the International Energy Agency, aviation kerosene reserves in the European Union will last until June. One of the latest changes to the schedule was made by the Dutch carrier KLM, which on April 16 announced the cancellation of 80 flights in May. The changes threaten to disrupt the tourist season worldwide, which means the consequences will affect the entire industry.

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• Europe is trying to replace jet fuel supplies from the Gulf states with imports from the United States and Nigeria. But the United States is also facing a shortage of jet fuel: because of this, the possibility of merging the largest American airlines, United Airlines and American Airlines, which control more than a third of the American air transportation market, was considered. Such a move could have reduced fuel costs, but raised questions from the antimonopoly authorities.

Who pays

• Despite the fact that the population of the EU countries is directly facing the consequences of the crisis, Brussels does not have the resources to soften the blow for citizens. During the last crisis, the EU allocated €800 billion to support households and businesses, which is equivalent to 2.2% of the union's GDP in the period 2022-2024, but now the bloc does not have such funds, since even the richest EU countries are facing more serious economic difficulties than four years ago.

• Calls for the population to switch to electric vehicles and heat pumps will lead to additional costs for residents of European countries, but will not solve the problem of energy shortages. If the number of heat pumps and chargeable electric cars in the network increases, Europe risks facing a blackout. Already in 2025, thanks to the proliferation of electric vehicles and data centers, global electricity consumption has increased by 3%, and financing for the development of electric grids remains insufficient.

• In addition to trying to survive the crisis at the expense of its own population, the EU expects other countries to make efforts to reduce fuel prices. One of the recommendations of European analysts was the coordination of European gas saving measures with Japan and South Korea, which together with the EU provide 60% of global LNG demand.

• Against the background of all these problems, the EU does not intend to curtail plans to support Ukraine: Brussels is looking for funds for this not only within the bloc, but also from its allies. On April 20, the European Parliament demanded that Norway increase financial support to Ukraine and force oil and gas companies to pay an additional tax of 20-25%, the funds from which will flow directly to Europeans. The EU justified its demands by saying that Norway's revenues have increased due to the rising cost of fuel that the country exports, and Europe needs additional funds to form a loan of €90 billion for Ukraine. Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg replied that with rising oil revenues, pension fund shares are falling, so the country is interested in peace in the Middle East. In addition, Norway's contribution to Ukraine's support in relation to GDP is already 10 times higher than the amounts allocated by other Western countries.

• Despite the EU's efforts to support Ukraine in the conflict to the detriment of its own interests, Kiev does not feel obligated to take into account the interests of European countries. In particular, the termination of the transit of Kazakh oil through the Russian Druzhba oil pipeline to Germany may be due to the fact that Ukraine has repeatedly made the infrastructure the target of its attacks, although the official reason is energy security and stability of the domestic market of Kazakhstan. Kiev is also in no hurry to restore transit through another branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies fuel to Hungary and Slovakia. After several demands from the European Union, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 21 that repairs had been completed and that he was ready to resume supplies, but set a condition for the allocation of a Euro loan of €90 billion. Meanwhile, the European Union does not have enough funds even for the first tranche of this loan in the amount of €22.5 billion.