Spring optimism: enterprises believe in the growth of the Russian economy
The April monitoring of enterprises, published by the Bank of Russia, captures the multidirectional dynamics in the real sector of the economy. The main surprise was that the consolidated business climate indicator (IBC) returned to positive territory in April 2026, reaching 2.2 points against March's minus 0.1. The indicator recovered to the levels of December last year due to an improvement in current estimates and short-term business expectations. Although this indicator is a leading indicator, it is too early to talk about an early economic recovery. The similarities are in the Izvestia material.
The pressure has decreased
Current production estimates have increased in almost all industries, updating the maximum since June 2025. Mining has entered a positive zone for the first time since February last year. At the same time, the inflationary background is softening. Enterprises' price expectations remained at the March level, anchored below the 2025 average. The average annual price growth rate expected by businesses decreased from 4.9% to 4.7%, returning to the figures of a year ago. A specific picture is emerging in agriculture, where selling prices have been decreasing for the seventh month in a row, and industry enterprises predict a further reduction in the cost of their products by an average of 0.4%.
The reduction of financial pressure also contributed to the improvement of the climate. In April, companies began to point less frequently to the rigidity of credit conditions, the corresponding estimates softened in all industries, and the cost of borrowed funds dropped to fourth place in the list of the main obstacles to doing business.
However, there is an important negative point. The apparent recovery in business confidence is offset by a fundamental decline in capital expenditures. According to the results of the first quarter of 2026, the balance of estimates of current investment activity collapsed to minus 4.8 points. For comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2025, this indicator was plus 3.3 points. The current dip is comparable to the recessions of early 2022. Enterprises' investment plans for the second quarter turned out to be the most restrained since the end of 2019.
The structure of the factors hindering development has changed. The uncertainty of the economic situation (23.6% of respondents pointed to it) and insufficient domestic demand (20.4%) came to the fore, the problem of which is particularly acute for small businesses. The level of capacity utilization has decreased to 77.5%, although this figure still continues to exceed the pre-crisis levels of 2017-2019.
The cooling is projected onto the labor market. Staff hunger, which remains critically high by historical standards, has begun to show signs of softening. The balance of staff shortage estimates was minus 21.6 points versus minus 22.8 a quarter earlier. The greatest shortage of workers today is recorded in the energy sector and agriculture.
The business's reaction to the downturn in investment is reflected in the hiring freeze. The expansion plans for the second quarter of 2026 were the most moderate since the third quarter of 2020. Companies have moved to strict control of the payroll. In the second quarter, 80% of enterprises do not plan to raise wages at all. The remaining 20% of employers expect an average indexation of only 1% to the level of the first quarter.
Expectations are on the rise
Is it possible to talk about a qualitative improvement in the prospects of the economy based on the report? Managers' expectations often materialize in real investment and production decisions in the next 3-6 months. However, in the current situation, its predictive power raises serious questions, says Anastasia Levchenko, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Laboratory of Industry Markets and Infrastructure.
The increase in the April index is primarily due to an improvement in managers' expectations, while their assessments of the current situation remain rather restrained, and even negative in some industries. Why have expectations improved? The first reason is the signals about a possible easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy.
— There is a consensus forecast in the financial market that the key interest rate may be reduced by 50 basis points at the next meeting on April 24. Combined with the actual slowdown in inflation and a decrease in inflation expectations, this creates a feeling among managers that the peak of monetary policy rigidity has passed," Levchenko said.
The second reason is the improvement of the external environment. In April, the IMF unexpectedly raised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth for 2026 from 0.8% to 1.1%, explaining this by rising oil and other commodity prices amid military operations in the Middle East. For Russian businesses, especially export-oriented ones, the rising price of raw materials is a direct signal to revenue growth and investment plans.
According to Olga Belenkaya, chief economist at Finam, the global energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to part of the energy and logistics infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries contributed to the improvement of sentiment in the extractive sectors.
"In addition to the jump in global energy prices, this led to an increase in demand for alternative sources and supply routes, which resulted in even a temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian oil consumers (which resumed after April 11)," the expert explained.
Adaptation and hope
Thirdly, according to Anastasia Levchenko, there is hope for the stabilization of the tax system. On January 1, 2026, the tax reform came into force: the base VAT rate increased from 20% to 22%.
— The first quarter was marked by adaptation to new conditions, and now that the main changes have already taken effect, the business has received certainty, albeit in the form of a higher tax burden. By itself, clarity can temporarily improve the mood of managers," she clarified.
It is also worth noting that an increase in expectations was noted in the trading sector (which is experiencing, in particular, an acute shortage of staff, which is greater than the average in the economy).
— In trade, the main improvement in sentiment was in the motor transport trade, where, after a decline in demand at the beginning of the year (a reaction to the increase in VAT and recycling), there was a noticeable recovery in March, — said Olga Belenkaya. — In general, the improvement in retail expectations may be related to hopes for a gradual recovery in consumer demand, which slowed down significantly at the beginning of the year, which could be a reaction to the general slowdown in economic growth and tax changes.
According to Levchenko, the gap between expectations and reality remains abnormally large. For the industry as a whole and for all manufacturing industries, indicators of the business climate and current investment activity are at their lowest levels in more than a year, and the figures are close to the values of the crisis of 2020 and 2022. It can be said that the recovery of the IBC reflects the stabilization of inflation and adaptation to current conditions, but companies are abandoning development plans due to uncertainty about future revenues. All this makes the restoration of economic growth a distant prospect.
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