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- The calculation is over: the EU does not expect restoration of relations with Tbilisi until 2028.
The calculation is over: the EU does not expect restoration of relations with Tbilisi until 2028.
There are growing fears in the EU that Georgia will not return to the path of full-fledged European integration at least until 2028, the European Parliament told Izvestia. Parliamentary elections will be held in the country in two years, and the ruling Georgian Dream party holds a strong position. Tbilisi refuses to join the EU sanctions against Moscow. The European Commission has confirmed that the EU will not be able to accept Georgia until it changes its course. Experts note that the Transcaucasian republic is interested in maintaining economic ties with Russia, which will only strengthen.
The EU is waiting for Georgia to change course
The European Parliament recognizes that the presence of the "Georgian Dream" in power is increasingly perceived in the EU as an obstacle to further European integration of the country.
— There is no single official "doctrine" in the EU, according to which Georgia's integration is impossible as long as the Georgian Dream is in power. However, in practice, there is indeed a very serious and growing concern in Brussels in this particular vein," MEP Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia.
Georgian Dream confidently won the parliamentary elections held in 2024, gaining over 50% of the vote. The next vote is scheduled to take place in October 2028. According to polls, the "Dream" holds a relative lead — about a third of the undecided voters are ready to support it. It is followed by the pro—European "Coalition for Change" (about 18%) and the "Unity - National Movement" of ex-President Mikhail Saakashvili (about 16%).
Georgia remains a candidate for EU membership, but negotiations on European integration were frozen in 2024 after Brussels complained about the Georgian Dream course. The EU claims that Tbilisi has deviated from democratic standards and adopted laws that are "incompatible with European values."
"The doors of the EU remain open if Georgia decides to change course and restructure itself in accordance with the values and norms of the EU," the European Commission confirmed to Izvestia.
The last time the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, and the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, spoke publicly about Georgia. They commented on the package of laws on foreign financing and political activities adopted on March 4, which, according to the EU, strengthens state control over the political sphere.
The EU criticized the law "On Transparency of foreign Influence" adopted in 2024, which obliges NGOs and media outlets that receive a significant share of funds from abroad to register as structures acting in the interests of a foreign power. The EU also condemned the package of laws on "family values and protection of minors" — measures aimed at banning LGBT propaganda (the movement is recognized as extremist in the Russian Federation and is prohibited). In response to pressure from Brussels, Georgian Dream decided to suspend discussions with the EU on opening negotiations on joining the community until 2028 and to abandon all budget grants from the European Union.
Visa restrictions have become one of the instruments of pressure from the EU. In January 2025, the EU Council partially suspended the agreement on visa facilitation for Georgian diplomats and officials — members of the government and parliaments, judges of the Constitutional and Supreme Courts, as well as official delegations. On March 6, 2026, the European Commission suspended visa-free entry to Schengen for holders of Georgian diplomatic, official and official passports for an additional year.
The European Parliament believes that a gradual resumption of cooperation between the EU and Georgia is possible earlier if the Georgian authorities make concessions to the EU.
— I do not think that we necessarily need to wait for the next elections to start normalizing relations. The European Union leaves the door open, but this door is conditional. If the Georgian authorities take convincing steps to return to the path of reform, especially in areas such as judicial independence, media freedom and compliance with EU foreign policy, we will be able to see a gradual resumption of cooperation much earlier," Tomasz Zdechowski explained.
Georgia's relations with Russia
At the same time, Georgia is at odds with the EU on foreign policy issues, in particular, related to Russia. Thus, Tbilisi refused to join the sanctions against Moscow. The head of the republic's Foreign Ministry, Maka Bochorishvili, stated earlier: Georgia will not be able to comply with the EU's foreign policy until it becomes a full member of the European Union.
— Given the security challenges, we must use extreme caution when assessing any process, and even more so when taking specific foreign policy measures. We will never allow creating an additional threat to our national interests for the sake of improving simple statistics. Accordingly, until Georgia becomes a full—fledged member of the European Union, it will be difficult for it to fully comply with the EU's foreign policy," Bochorishvili said.
Tbilisi, however, insists that refusing to join the sanctions does not mean abandoning the European course. The Georgian authorities explain their position by saying that the introduction of restrictions against Russia would primarily affect the Georgian economy and its citizens. It is economic considerations that largely explain why Tbilisi is not ready to follow the demands of Brussels to the detriment of relations with Russia, said Said Gafurov, associate professor at MGLU and RGSU, a political scientist.
The Russian Federation retains a significant economic presence in Georgian foreign trade. According to the National Statistics Service of Georgia, in 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $2.688 billion: Georgian exports to Russia reached $749.3 million, imports from Russia — $1.939 billion. Russia has become Georgia's third trading partner in terms of total turnover after Turkey and the United States. In January–February 2026, Moscow also remained among the three largest partners: the bilateral trade turnover amounted to $418.3 million, of which $92 million accounted for Georgian exports and $326.3 million for imports from Russia.
Despite the country's withdrawal from the CIS back in 2009, Tbilisi remained in many agreements, Vadim Ganin, General Director of the CIS Business Center, told Izvestia. Moreover, Georgia's interest in economic cooperation with Russia is growing.
— I would even say that somewhere, perhaps, the (economic) interest is increasing. — Ed.). Now, in relations with Georgia, the issue is not whether something is being reduced or not, but rather transport links. We have a bottleneck in the mountains, at the border crossing. It is difficult to transport through Azerbaijan and Armenia. There is still a sea route — this is the part that needs to be developed," he said.
Ganin stressed that the neighborhood factor is of key importance in relations between Russia and Georgia.: The countries remain closely connected, Georgian goods remain in demand on the Russian market, which means that economic contacts will continue. In addition, a visa-free regime is in effect between the countries, and direct flights have been restored in 2023. On April 2, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that economic, transport and tourist ties between Russia and Georgia were actively growing, and expressed hope that the Georgian side was also interested in constructive relations, despite the ongoing political problems.
The issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains a sensitive issue in relations between Tbilisi and Moscow. Russia recognized their independence after the 2008 conflict, when Mikhail Saakashvili was president of the republic. Then Georgia severed diplomatic relations with Russia. Tbilisi claims that their restoration is impossible without resolving the issue of the status of the republics. At the same time, the current government is committed to a pragmatic policy towards the Russian Federation.
— Moscow just wants to preserve the status quo, and in any case, the Georgians will need to negotiate directly with both the Abkhazians and the South Ossetians. It seems to me that the Georgian Dream government understands this well," Gafurov stressed.
The prospects for Georgia's European integration in the coming years will be determined not only by the demands of Brussels, but also by the internal stability of the government in Tbilisi, as well as how important economic ties with Russia will remain for the country, the expert concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
