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- Exodus — collapse: the US withdrawal from NATO will lead to the collapse of the alliance
Exodus — collapse: the US withdrawal from NATO will lead to the collapse of the alliance
The US withdrawal from NATO will deprive the alliance of combat capability and lead to its further disintegration, experts told Izvestia. Washington provides 60% of the organization's military power. But the conflict with Iran has only exacerbated existing differences between the United States and its allies. At the same time, the remaining NATO members recognize this format as having no alternative and pin their hopes on the upcoming July summit in Ankara, a European source told Izvestia. About how Washington's relations with the alliance are deteriorating and whether Trump will withdraw from NATO in the run—up to the congressional elections, see the Izvestia article.
How the conflict between the United States and its allies is escalating
On the same day that Washington and Tehran signed a two-week truce, another surprising news spread around the world. White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt told reporters that Donald Trump would discuss the possibility of the United States withdrawing from the alliance at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. She expressed regret that over the past six weeks, during the war with Iran, the allies have turned their backs on the American people.
"The NATO countries weren't there when we needed them, and they won't be there if we need them again," Trump wrote on the Truth Social network after meeting with Rutte. —Remember Greenland, that big, poorly managed piece of ice!!!"
However, Mark Rutte's diplomacy seems to have worked, and after their conversation, the US president did not make harsh statements about the country's withdrawal from NATO. According to the Secretary General of the alliance, they had a frank and open discussion. "He [Trump] is clearly disappointed with many NATO allies, and I understand his point of view. But at the same time, he listened attentively to my arguments about what was happening," the Dutch politician assured.
He acknowledged that some NATO members did not fulfill their obligations during the operation against Iran, but most of them nevertheless came to the rescue. Separately, Rutte highlighted the efforts of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whom Trump has repeatedly publicly criticized in recent weeks. Curiously, London provided its military bases only after the head of the White House said that Starmer was by no means Winston Churchill.
France did not participate at all, which the United States "will not forget," as Trump later assured, and also sarcastically joked about Emmanuel Macron, hinting at his problems in relations with his wife Brigitte after the scandalous incident at the head of the plane. Spain went even further, condemning the attack on Iran and banning the United States from using its skies and bases during the war. In response, the American leader threatened to cut off all trade relations with Madrid.
As The Wall Street Journal has learned, after the end of the war with Iran, Trump plans to "punish" NATO allies who refused to help. The plan involves the withdrawal of American troops from the member countries of the alliance and their redeployment to those states that were more "useful." In addition, the United States may close its military base in at least one European country — Spain or Germany, two officials from the Trump administration told the publication.
Today, there are about 84,000 U.S. military personnel in Europe, and bases in the region serve as a key hub for U.S. operations. If the plan gets the green light, Poland, Lithuania, Romania and Greece may benefit, which, according to WSJ sources, were most supported by Washington. However, it will take a lot of time and resources to withdraw troops from the country or close the base, says American scholar Malek Dudakov.
"Even if the Americans announce tomorrow the withdrawal of their contingent from Spain, Italy or Germany, it will take many years to implement all this logistically," the expert told Izvestia.
For comparison, the withdrawal of American marines along with a military base from Japan took about 13 years, from 2011 to 2024. A similar story could happen to Europe. Therefore, now Trump is likely to limit himself to verbal threats and an attempt to present overseas allies as guilty of the American fiasco in the confrontation with Iran, Dudakov sums up.
It is possible that the United States will impose new strict requirements on them. According to Reuters, Mark Rutte informed a number of EU leaders about Trump's new desire: the participation of Europeans in the mission to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Will the United States withdraw from NATO
Obviously, the European allies do not like Washington's talk about a possible withdrawal from the alliance. The NATO countries value the alliance and are in constant dialogue at joint summits — the next one will be held on July 7-8 in Ankara, a European diplomatic source reminded Izvestia.
— The defensive Alliance plays a key role in ensuring collective security, which remains the primary responsibility of NATO, the principle of which is enshrined in article 5 of the Washington Treaty. It should be recalled that to date, Article 5 has been applied only once, at the request of the United States, in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which was a manifestation of solidarity," the source explained, answering a question about a possible change in the US position after the new administration came to power and further actions of the participating countries.
The US withdrawal from NATO threatens the collapse of the alliance, as no country can compensate for Washington's military and financial contribution. The total defense spending of the bloc's countries in 2025 is estimated at $1.4 trillion, according to the alliance's documents. According to a report by Mark Rutte, the US share of military spending by all 32 NATO countries in 2025 was 60%. Thus, more than half of the alliance's combat power is provided in Washington. The Americans have allocated $845 billion for their army in the alliance, while all EU countries and Canada together have allocated $559 billion. The States also pay significant funds to the general budget, which in 2025 amounted to €4.6 billion. The United States and Germany allocated the most — 16% each, followed by Great Britain and France (10% each) and all the others.
— With the potential withdrawal of the United States from the alliance, we can say for sure that Europe will not succeed in replacing them with someone else. A new military association of European countries seems unlikely, especially considering that they, in particular Germany and France, are actively competing with each other for the status of Europe's leading military force," a researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) told Izvestia HSE Inna Yanikeeva.
According to her, the United States still has both military and financial levers to put pressure on its allies. For example, they can reduce the supply of weapons, stop the transfer of intelligence, and reduce payments to the alliance's budget.
After coming to the White House, Trump immediately began to criticize the allies for not investing enough in their own defense, demanding an increase in military spending. They were forced to meet halfway, agreeing to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP from each country by 2035. Of these, 3.5% should be for basic defense, and 1.5% for related areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure protection.
At the July summit in Ankara, Washington will again demand that the Europeans increase their defense budgets while applying high customs duties, said Alice Kazelko, a political scientist and expert at Valdai and Digoria.
"The Ankara summit will become a critical point not so much for resolving current disagreements as for determining the trajectory of transatlantic relations for the next decade — whether NATO will withstand the crisis or cease to exist due to the withdrawal of the United States," the expert notes in a conversation with Izvestia.
Even the formal procedure for withdrawing from NATO will also take time. First, the United States must be officially notified as the depositary country of the treaty, and only one year after the notification, withdrawal is possible. However, in the case of the United States, they will still need the consent of both houses of Congress, which will be almost impossible to achieve, especially as the midterm elections in November 2026 approach.
Due to highly controversial decisions, pressure is now increasing on Trump, which plays into the hands of the Democratic Party, said Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor-in-chief of Covert Action magazine and an American expert.
— The Democrats have good chances in many swing states, and they can be very competitive even in Texas, which used to be a strong "red" state. Many Republicans, especially young Ones, have turned away from Trump because of the war with Iran and his policies towards Israel and Gaza," he stressed.
The intention to leave NATO will only worsen the situation. In addition, when leaving the alliance, American military corporations will lose the huge sales market that they have always had in Europe, which will also not play in Trump's favor, adds Malek Dudakov. Thus, despite the harsh rhetoric of the White House, radical decisions should not be expected, nor should the unpredictability of the current American president be underestimated.
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