- Статьи
- Economy
- Mobile East: imported goods in Russia have already risen in price by up to 10% due to the conflict in Iran
Mobile East: imported goods in Russia have already risen in price by up to 10% due to the conflict in Iran
Prices for some imported goods in Russia have already increased by 5-10% due to the conflict in the Middle East, Izvestia found out. A wide variety of products are becoming more expensive all over the world. For example, the cost of auto parts and electronics has increased in our country since the end of February, as a significant part of purchases went through the Persian Gulf countries. Due to supply disruptions, logistics has skyrocketed in value. And even after the announcement of the truce between the United States and Iran, the situation does not quickly return to normal — restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz remain and continue to affect the market. The supplies of which other goods were affected by the conflict and who benefits from the jump in inflation are described in the Izvestia article.
What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz right now
As of April 9, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked. And despite the statements of the authorities of different countries about the need to ensure freedom of navigation in it, so far the ships have not moved from the dead center. This is already affecting prices for consumers around the world. According to Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, the local crisis in the water area is rapidly transforming into a global inflationary factor. And apparently, the markets are just beginning to feel its effects.
On April 8, after a truce was reached with the United States, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said: Iran opens the strait for the passage of ships for two weeks, it will be possible subject to coordination with the Armed Forces of the republic and taking into account technical limitations. But less than a day later, the Iranian state-owned Press TV channel reported that Hormuz was closed again. The situation is constantly changing.
—Shipowners and insurers will be extremely careful: they will carefully assess the risks before sending ships through the strait," says Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.
Logistics has already faced the accumulated effect, said Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management. Hundreds of vessels have accumulated near the strait, including more than 200 tankers, and the total number can reach 600-1000. While some ships are idle, others are bypassing. Logistics is being extended by thousands of miles and is rapidly becoming more expensive. Market participants are urgently reshaping supply chains, putting new risks into calculations — from shipping restrictions to surges in insurance rates. The domino effect has already been launched: transportation costs accelerate the prices of raw materials and finished products far beyond the region.
How much have goods become more expensive due to the conflict between Iran and the United States
The price increase has not bypassed Russia either. For example, since the end of February, spare parts have become more expensive due to the conflict in the Middle East, said Alexey Ivanov, the owner of the Alliance Trucks dealership network. Growth varies depending on the product category and supply chain, but the changes have already become steady.
The entrepreneur explained: The UAE has become a key re-export hub for Russia in recent years, with up to 60% of such shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Alexey Khizhnyak, GR Director of Mikhailov and Partners Group, said that in Russia the price increase is already noticeable in several areas.:
- High-tech components such as lithium-ion batteries and semiconductor components have already increased in price by more than 10%;
- the cost of auto parts (components from Southeast Asia and Europe) increased by 7.8-9.2%;
- electrical engineering and electronics (cables, transformers, household appliances) — by 6.5–8.7%.
Suppliers were forced to review the cost of products after disrupting supply chains, said financial advisor and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. On average, the increase in price was about 5-10%.
And it affects not only auto parts and electronics, Alexey Ivanov added. Rising energy prices affect the cost of a wide range of goods, from plastics to lubricants and fuels. An increase in the cost of fuels and lubricants has already been recorded against the background of rising oil prices.
An additional effect is also observed in the agricultural sector, Igor Rastorguev noted. Due to supply disruptions, raw materials for the production of fertilizers, ammonia and sulfur, have become more expensive. As a result, urea prices have increased by about 50%. In the future, this may affect the cost of agricultural products, he warned.
The states of the Middle East also sell more than a quarter of the total exports of ethers and ether alcohols — disruptions in their supply can lead to shortages of paint, household chemicals and packaging, Izvestia wrote.
How long will it take to restore the trading chains
Even with a formal truce, shipping will not recover quickly, Alexey Khizhnyak believes. According to him, a full return to normal operation of the strait may take from four to seven months, and the probability of logistics stabilization only by the end of summer reaches only 75-80%.
The temporary nature of the truce remains a deterrent — it was announced only for two weeks, Igor Rastorguev noted. Moreover, on the very first day there were statements about the violation of the ceasefire. Israel attacked an oil refinery in southern Iran. The IDF is also hitting Beirut and southern Lebanon. And if the Jewish state continues its attacks, Tehran will withdraw from the truce.
Increased insurance rates and freight costs create additional pressure. In some areas, air shipments have risen in price by 70% since March, and rates for large-tonnage oil shipments have reached record levels, Vladimir Chernov recalled. Therefore, it will take months to restore supply chains.
The goods shipped before the escalation had been arriving at the old prices for some time, noted Alexey Ivanov from Alliance Trucks. There are still some remnants in the warehouses. The most noticeable growth is expected in one to two months, when the reserves, calculated for about seven to eight weeks, begin to melt.
Original spare parts for European and Japanese cars may rise the most, especially for outdated models, he added. At the same time, components for Chinese cars supplied by rail will increase in price more slowly. Some of the supplies have already been redirected to Turkey and China, said Roman Timashov, Deputy General Director of Avtodom Group. There is no sharp rise in prices in these areas.
The restoration of the industrial infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will take time, Dmitry Baranov noted. It may take up to a year for the aluminum industry in the UAE and oil refining facilities in the region, and LNG terminals will require even more investment of money and effort due to the complexity of the equipment. All this time, the pressure on prices will continue.
The truce can only partially reduce the pressure on the market, said Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Digital Broker. In general, it will not calm the Middle East: the United States and Iran will try to use this time to strengthen their groups, Izvestia wrote earlier. After two weeks, and possibly even earlier, the conflict is likely to resume, experts say. In addition, it should be understood that the difficulties that have arisen with the supply of a wide variety of products around the world are beneficial to the United States. They are the main beneficiary of the rise in the price of LNG, machinery and cars. In addition, Donald Trump has previously stated that security in the Strait of Hormuz should be handled by countries that receive oil through it. The Americans don't seem to have anything to do with it.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
