Silence over the Bay: how will the cease-fire between the US and Iran affect the world

Two hours before the deadline for the ultimatum of the head of the White House, Donald Trump, the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week truce. Tehran has formulated a package of ten demands related to regional policy, economy and security. Washington agreed to accept them as the basis for negotiations. This event is changing not only the balance in the Middle East, but also the entire global architecture. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Iran's Ten Demands

US President Donald Trump, who got involved in the war with Iran, eventually found a way out of the situation. Using the threat to destroy "an entire civilization," he tried to leave the battlefield with his head held high.

Iran has formulated a package of requirements related to regional policy, economy and security. Washington agreed that these ten points could form the basis of the upcoming negotiations.

Among them is the preservation of Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant part of the world's oil supplies pass. As well as a guarantee of non-aggression by the United States and its allies and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium. In addition, the Iranian authorities are demanding an easing of sanctions pressure — direct restrictions and secondary measures.

Tehran is seeking the repeal of some international resolutions, compensation for damages and the withdrawal of foreign troops from the region, as well as an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

What does a cease-fire mean for the world as a whole?

The pause in hostilities that has been achieved is not peace, but only a strategic regrouping, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The consequences for the world as a whole are quite serious. For the first time in decades, a non-nuclear state with an economy under severe sanctions has managed to impose its conditions on a superpower. In the current situation, it is important to maintain control over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

In the modern system of international relations, military force has once again begun to dominate finances, and the security guarantees provided by the United States are losing their absolute value.

China, which stood behind Pakistan, acted as a key mediator of this truce, strengthening its status as a global arbitrator. The agreement between Tehran and Washington allows China to maintain access to Iranian oil, bypassing US sanctions, and complete the Belt and Road Initiative transport corridor through Iran.

Meanwhile, the European Union has once again found itself in the role of an observer. By maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran gains leverage over global oil and gas prices, which for Europe means continued high inflation and energy dependence.

Brussels, which did not participate in either the war or the negotiations, is losing the remnants of subjectivity. Moreover, Tehran's demand for the lifting of secondary US sanctions threatens to sever transatlantic unity.: Europe will have to choose between American restrictions and Iranian resources.

In addition, the war between the United States and Israel with Iran has finally pushed the Ukrainian conflict off the world agenda. For Kiev, the current truce in the Middle East means that Washington will now focus on containing China and strengthening its influence in Latin America. By ending the fighting with Iran, the United States will not transfer resources to Ukraine.

At the same time, during the current conflict, American bases in the Persian Gulf have become a kind of "magnet for Iranian strikes." This will eventually force the Pentagon to reconsider its concept. It is possible that the United States will withdraw part of the contingent from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. However, a complete withdrawal is still impossible: monarchies, as experts emphasize, are unable to defend themselves on their own.

One of the key questions that arose after the conclusion of the current truce is whether the United States will begin to scale down its military presence in Eurasia, transferring forces to Southeast Asia or the Caribbean? Obviously, the United States will actively seek to restore its reputation as a "strong partner."

To do this, they may try to strengthen their military presence: transfer the vacated aircraft carrier groups and destroyers to Southeast Asia, pursuing the main goal of containing China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Some forces, including coast Guard ships and special forces, may leave for the western hemisphere to put pressure on Venezuela and Cuba.

A truce for the Middle East region

It is premature to consider the current agreements as a peace treaty, said Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS. The truce can break down at any moment, as the complex causes of this conflict have not gone away.

— By a two-week truce, Iran means a freeze on all fronts, including Lebanon, but it is unclear which geography of the freeze the United States means. Israel continues to "iron" the south and east of Lebanon all morning. At the same time, each side declared victory, although the situation resembles the end of the twelve—day war in June 2025," the political scientist explained.

The key point boils down to the US positions in the region and its relations with its regional allies, he added. The Gulf monarchies are unhappy with the way the United States has ensured their security during the current phase.

— They are disappointed that despite the presence of American weapons, they could not effectively defend themselves against Iran on their own. But they have nowhere to go. It will be necessary to maintain the alliance with the United States, because small states, despite their financial might, are not able to independently ensure their security: neither Kuwait, Qatar, nor Bahrain, the orientalist believes.

In his opinion, the United Arab Emirates will also remain dependent on the United States. At the same time, they may begin to actively maneuver in relations with regional players.

— Bahrain and the UAE have problems here because, unlike others, they have concluded the Abrahamic agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia will accelerate the diversification of its foreign trade and foreign economic relations and is likely to redistribute budgets intended for the implementation of the Vision 2030 program to infrastructure development on the Red Sea coast in order to reduce its dependence on export capacities in the Gulf, the expert predicted.

He added that Israel's political elites are unhappy with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to support the truce and the United States as a whole.

— All this may lead to the fact that all players in the Middle East will strive to reduce dependence on the United States at least as an arms supplier. But, of course, they will not be able to completely move away from this model of relations with Washington. Washington will maintain its actual presence, but it will gradually lose its freedom of maneuver," Ostanin-Golovnya summed up.

The fighting is not over yet

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, agrees that the current agreements do not mean the end of hostilities and bloodshed.

— At best, this is a freeze, at worst, a strategic pause for all parties in order to calculate the risks and prepare new plans. All the participants declare that they have won: the United States, Iran, and even the Emirates. We may hear this from Israel in the near future," the political scientist explained in an interview with Izvestia.

The expert doubted that the United States would agree to at least one of Iran's ten demands, since they are all economically and politically unprofitable for the United States.

— The most likely scenario is that the Americans will negotiate, but delay the negotiation process, — the expert is sure.

During this time, the United States will try to pump weapons and equipment into Israel in order to prepare again and continue the war. Washington can return to hostilities quite simply: at any moment, saying that Iran is delaying negotiations.

The balance of power in the region has changed, but not so significantly, as all the players have demonstrated both their strength and weakness, the analyst noted. Iran successfully fought off attacks for 38 days, but at the same time suffered serious human and infrastructural losses.

— Moreover, Iran responded to the strikes without particularly skimping on targets, which was not the case in previous conflicts. Israel seems to have achieved its specific political goals, but the regime, as it was in Iran, remained, so Israel, on the one hand, achieved success, on the other hand, suffered reputational and material losses," the orientalist explained.

As a result, the players, according to Krylov, thought about what an American military umbrella is and how much it is actually needed.

"However, practically none of the regional powers can abandon it, because everything is very strongly tied to the current political elites, to political agreements with the Americans, and as practice shows, it is better not to anger Trump once again," the political scientist noted.

Little will change in this regard in the future, the expert suggested. He also pointed out an important controversial point of the new deal — Israel and the United States stated that Lebanon and the Hezbollah issue were not included in the agreement with Iran.

"Accordingly, another front of Israeli military activity will remain, and this leaves a large enough space for opening a new front against Iran and new accusations of Iran in whatever it is," the expert concluded.

What does this mean for Russia?

Iran, along with Israel, has consolidated its position as a regional power, said Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council.

— The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, on the contrary, have discovered not only their vulnerability in the conditions of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, but also their helplessness in protecting their interests, Iran's super—rich southern neighbors turned out to be "whipping boys," the expert emphasized.

In Iran itself, the regime changed during the war: the real power passed from the ayatollahs to the security forces. Now the country is led not by the supreme leader or the president, but by the upper echelon of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In the current situation, Russia has managed to maintain its principled position. Moscow called what was happening aggression, declared solidarity with Tehran, and vetoed a draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz in the UN Security Council.

In addition, the Russian Federation was able to openly explain its position to the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, not to worsen relations with Israel, and also not to provoke US President Donald Trump.

— In the future, Moscow will have the opportunity to develop relations more closely with Tehran, which has passed the hardest test and significantly increased its international status. Russia, China, Iran, as well as Belarus and the DPRK actually form the core of the new security system in Eurasia. Iran has just stopped the American geopolitical counteroffensive in southern Eurasia," Trenin concluded.