Both word and deed: does the truce in Iran bring a return to negotiations on Ukraine closer

Russia will not delay the resumption of trilateral negotiations on Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. The diplomat stressed that now, after reaching a truce between the United States and Iran, much will depend on who exactly the White House appoints as a representative for dialogue with Tehran. At the same time, the expert community believes that the chances of resuming negotiations on the Ukrainian track have increased. It is possible that an American delegation may visit Russia in the near future. However, we should expect resistance from Europe, Kiev and American supporters of the war.

When will Russia, the United States and Ukraine return to negotiations

The truce between the United States and Iran has given a chance for progress in the negotiation process on Ukraine. Earlier, the trilateral format of the Russian Federation – the United States – Ukraine was put on pause due to the situation in the Middle East. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry notes that much now depends on who exactly Washington appoints as its representative for further dialogue with Tehran.

— The consent of the three parties is necessary in order to conduct negotiations in this format. Now a lot depends on the decision of the United States, who will represent them in negotiations with Iran. If these are the same negotiators, then this moment may be postponed somewhat, which at the same time is not a cardinal obstacle to continuing or moving on the negotiating track on a settlement in Ukraine," Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. — In any case, I think there will be no obstacles or delays on the Russian side in resuming the negotiation process.

The Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry for crimes committed by the Kiev regime recalled that Russia did not withdraw from the negotiation format and did not stop participating in upcoming meetings or consultations.

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The White House announced that Donald Trump will send a group led by Vice President Jay D. Vance, special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to negotiate with representatives of Iran. The Kremlin said it supported the decision "not to go further down the path of armed escalation."

— We hope that in the foreseeable future they (the American negotiators. There will be more time and more opportunities to meet in a trilateral format. We are waiting for this. And we continue to highly appreciate the peacekeeping efforts of the American negotiators and personally the President [of the United States Donald]. Trump is on the Ukrainian track," Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 8.

After almost 40 days, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week truce, reached at the last moment on the night of April 8. Both sides have declared victory, although key contradictions, primarily around the status of the Strait of Hormuz, remain unresolved. As Axios notes, the risk of a renewed war is quite real. In addition, Israel is not ready to stop fighting in Lebanon against Hezbollah, which could also provoke a new round of escalation.

However, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that after the truce in the Middle East, the chance of resuming negotiations on Ukraine has increased significantly.

— The reduction of tension in the Middle East does create a limited "window of opportunity" for returning to the diplomatic agenda around Ukraine, but there is no direct cause-and-effect relationship here. The Russian side explicitly states that these tracks are only indirectly related," said Nikolai Novik, Deputy Director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, believes that if the truce in the Middle East is not disrupted, the next round of trilateral negotiations may take place as early as May.

— Trump's attention may switch back to the Ukrainian conflict, and the negotiators, who will be in Islamabad in the coming days, if successful, will be able to take up the Russian-Ukrainian portfolio again. But this is possible only if negotiations with Tehran are successful now and they do not quarrel, because it is clear that the 10 points that the Iranian side has presented to the United States, at least in full, can hardly be accepted by Washington," he said.

Who is preventing the resumption of negotiations

Despite the pause, Moscow and Kiev maintained dialogue with Washington through their own channels. US Vice President Jay Dee Vance claims that the positions of Russia and Ukraine in the negotiations on the settlement of the conflict are gradually coming closer. The White House declares its readiness to continue the peace process.

— The Americans believe that the next steps should take place in the Ukrainian half of the field — the withdrawal of troops from Donbass and, possibly, other conditions. It is now important for them to push through the change in the Ukrainian position. If this is done, then we can expect some kind of visit to Moscow so that the Russian side also demonstrates greater flexibility than we are currently witnessing," Andrei Kortunov believes.

Swiss settlement: Russia is preparing for a new stage of negotiations on Ukraine

Kiev is delaying the process, but contacts in Geneva will still benefit the settlement, experts believe.

However, progress in the negotiations is hampered by the continuing bipartisan consensus in the United States on support for Ukraine. The Trump administration is alone in its assessment of Kiev's actions, according to Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

—Even if there are prerequisites for Washington to exert more active pressure on Kiev, this will still not happen, because it will be perceived as a challenge to this bipartisan consensus,— he told Izvestia.

Many European countries are also opposed to a peace treaty that would take into account Russia's interests. So, in March, Germany and Sweden promised Ukraine record military support. Denmark, which recently held early elections, is not far behind. Curiously, since the beginning of its operation, Copenhagen has provided assistance to Kiev in the amount of about € 10.5 billion, while the lion's share of the funds — € 9.6 billion — went to military needs.

"Given the absolute dominance of anti—Russian sentiments here, the new government, which will be formed following the March 24 parliamentary elections in Denmark, will continue its policy of supporting Ukraine," Russian Ambassador to the kingdom Vladimir Barbin told Izvestia.

Kiev is also resisting. Vladimir Zelensky rejects the condition on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass. Moscow, however, emphasizes that the territorial issue is an important, but not the only controversial point.

"The US—Russia–Ukraine trilateral talks stalled by the end of February not so much because of increased tensions in the Middle East, but because of the lack of territorial concessions from Ukraine, in particular on the issue of the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

The last round of trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine was held on February 17-18 in Switzerland. The next meeting was scheduled to take place in early March in the UAE, but due to the Iranian war and the risks of drone and missile attacks, negotiations in Abu Dhabi were in doubt. Either Geneva or Istanbul were again considered as an alternative venue, Bloomberg previously noted. By the way, in early April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader thanked his Turkish counterpart for his willingness to facilitate the negotiation process on Ukraine.