Benya, ai nid help: how the truce in the Middle East threatens Trump and Netanyahu

The declared truce in the Middle East only creates new problems for the political elite of the United States and Israel. According to experts, the pause in hostilities looks more like a forced respite than a path to lasting peace. The ratings of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leave much to be desired. Record discontent over fuel prices is being recorded in the United States, and even his former associates are criticizing the head of the White House. The situation in Israel is no better: Netanyahu is accused of spending billions of dollars on a war that has never produced a clear result. About why a temporary peace may turn out to be more dangerous for the United States and Israel than war, see the Izvestia article.

Will there be a rebellion against Trump

The truce between the United States and Iran does not yet look like the beginning of a sustainable settlement. In the early hours, it became clear that the agreement remained fragile: Israel supported the American plan, but stated that the pause, according to its interpretation, did not apply to Lebanon, where the operation against Hezbollah was continuing. There is also uncertainty surrounding future negotiations: it is not publicly clear exactly what obligations the parties are willing to undertake on the Iranian nuclear program, Tehran's missile potential and regional security.

According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, this is more about a forced respite than a movement towards lasting peace.

— If we are talking about a truce, then, most likely, it will end in a new war in the Middle East. Since the positions of the parties are too different from each other, there is no starting point for dialogue now, says Orientalist and Americanist Alexander Kargin.

According to Mikhail Khachaturian, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, it is more logical to consider the current pause not as a path to peace, but as an attempt to regroup before the next stage of the conflict. According to Kargin, by announcing a pause, the American president actually "reset" the duration of the conflict for himself without a new agreement with Congress and thereby gained time to avoid an uncomfortable discussion of the war on Capitol Hill. In the United States, the president has the right to conduct military operations for two months without congressional approval.

Nevertheless, ending the conflict under current conditions can only add to the costs for the head of the White House. After six weeks of fighting, Washington cannot show its domestic voters either regime change in Tehran, the final lifting of the declared nuclear threat, or lower oil and fuel prices. By March 24, Trump's approval rating had dropped to 36%, the lowest since his return to the White House. Only 25% approved of his actions in the cost of living, 29% approved of his actions in the economy, and 61% did not support attacks on Iran.

Silence over the Bay: how will the cease-fire between the US and Iran affect the world

The end of the war in the Middle East could change the entire global architecture.

An additional problem for the White House is that even after the announcement of the truce, the economic consequences will be felt for a long time. It is expected that fuel prices in the United States may remain elevated for months even after the opening of Hormuz. According to forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration, the average price of gasoline this year will exceed $3.70 per gallon, and in April it may reach a peak of about $4.30.

Instability has also increased in the "red" camp. According to polls, the share of Republicans dissatisfied with the president's actions in the cost of living rose from 27% to 34% in a week. At the same time, 40% of Republicans were already in favor of a quick end to the conflict, even without achieving the administration's goals. Overall, only 35% of Americans trust Trump on the issue of Iran, compared with 66% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Trump is even being criticized by his former allies, who have yet to run for office. The media reports that some Republicans were alarmed by the president's rhetoric: Senator Lisa Murkowski from Alaska demanded de-escalation, and former congresswoman and one of Trump's most vocal allies Marjorie Taylor Green publicly admitted to talking about the 25th Amendment — that is, about the mechanism for removing the president from power if he is found unable to perform his duties. Nathaniel Moran, a Republican from Texas, also criticized the threat to "erase" Iran as undermining the moral legitimacy of the United States.

The conflict has already affected preparations for the midterm congressional elections. According to media reports, Republican structures in recent weeks have tried to avoid the topic of war in training manuals, and many candidates preferred not to defend or criticize Trump openly.

However, it is still premature to talk about a real internal party rebellion against the president. Despite some public attacks, the Republican Party remains largely Trumpist and, in practical terms, will not seriously resist the decisions of the US president on Iran, according to Egor Toropov, an American researcher at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

— Following the results of the November elections, the Congress and the Republican Party itself will be not less, but more united around Trump. Many of his moderate critics may lose their seats," he said.

Toropov also believes that the talks about a possible impeachment of Trump are more of a media nature. Even if the House of Representatives formally supports such a procedure, it will require a qualified majority in the Senate, which the Democrats will not have. Nevertheless, public discontent with the war with Iran may well affect the midterm elections. Toropov predicts that Republicans risk losing their majority in the House of Representatives, and their advantage in the Senate may decrease from the current 53 seats to 50-51.

In Israel, the pause was considered a weakness

For Netanyahu, the pause with Iran looks no less problematic. The main paradox is that the war, where Israel expected to get the classic effect of "rallying around the flag," did not give it. Almost a month after the conflict began, about 40% of voters continued to support Netanyahu's coalition, about 40% supported the opposition, and the wavering segment did not move towards the prime minister. In the case of the elections, Likud won 28 seats against the current 34, while the entire coalition won only 51 out of 120 seats, which is less than the parliamentary majority.

This is especially painful because the war has cost Israel dearly. According to the country's finance ministry, the fighting cost the economy about 5 billion shekels ($1.6 billion) per week, and the government had to add another 32 billion shekels ($10 billion) in defense spending.

Taking a break: How lasting will the truce be between the US and Iran

The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, but Washington and Tehran are seeking to avoid a resumption of hostilities.

The leader of the center-left Ha-Democrat party, Yair Golan, accused Netanyahu of failing to turn military successes into a strategic result and said that Iran was eventually emerging from the conflict stronger.

"There has never been such a political disaster in our entire history. Israel did not even participate in making decisions concerning the foundations of our national security," wrote Yair Lapid, head of the opposition in the Knesset and leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party.

Netanyahu continues to be pressured by his own "hawks": Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich previously opposed any pauses and demanded to bring the campaign to a tough result.

Nevertheless, a new split within Israel should not be expected, since it existed before the current war, Alexander Kargin is sure.

— The opposition in Israel hates Netanyahu, and the ruling coalition — that is, Netanyahu himself and the parties around him — hates the opposition. At the time of the fighting, this internal political struggle is simply suspended, but as soon as the fighting ends, and no matter what the result, the internal political struggle resumes," he said.

The prime minister's right-wing and religious allies may criticize the very idea of a truce, but they are unlikely to directly oppose Netanyahu, since after the elections they will still have to build a coalition with his camp.

For Netanyahu and Israel, the war will have long-term consequences in terms of diplomacy and public opinion, Evgeny Sumarokov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said in a conversation with Izvestia. Moreover, distrust of Netanyahu is evident in many foreign capitals, which can eventually weaken the prime minister's position.

In addition, there is a lawsuit against him in cases of bribery, fraud and abuse of trust. At the same time, the scandal over the removal of the head of Shin Bet, the Israeli internal security service responsible for counterintelligence and counterterrorism inside the country, has not subsided. In these circumstances, the risk of street protests remains. Especially considering that rallies have been held regularly in recent years due to judicial reform and the war in Gaza.