Quick and easy: Russians open almost all new deposits for a short period of time
Russians are now opening about 96% of new deposits for a short period of time, according to Finuslug data. At the same time, more than half — for a period of up to three months. Banks actively promote such products because they do not want to fix high rates for a longer period. However, the shortage of "long money" slows down the decline in interest rates on loans: to compensate for expensive deposits, banks keep borrowing costs at a high level for longer. How much can deposits become cheaper by the end of the year is in the Izvestia article.
Why do Russians open deposits for a short period of time
Almost all new deposits are now issued for up to six months: in March, 95.8% of deposits accounted for a period of one to six months, according to data from Financial Services, which was studied by Izvestia. At the same time, the three-month period accounted for 56.7%.
Long—term products are practically not in demand: for a year — only 3.2% of placements, and for periods from one to three years - about 4%, follows from the data of Finuslug. The classic model with long deposits currently does not actually work.
The Central Bank's statistics also show an increase in the share of short-term placements.: Back in February, the share of deposits for up to six months was almost 40% of the total. In total, there were almost 65 trillion rubles in banks, of which 25.5 trillion were for short periods. In 2023, medium—term deposits dominated, ranging from six months to a year.
The predominance of short products is due to expectations of lower prices, said Evgeny Romanov, a leading analyst at Expert RA. The Central Bank gradually lowered it at recent meetings, and now it has dropped to 15%. The market predicts that the regulator will continue to soften its policy in the future, so credit institutions use interest rates to motivate Russians to fix returns for the short term — it is unprofitable for them to pay high interest rates to customers for a long time.
In conditions of declining interest rates, short-term deposits often turn out to be more profitable than long-term deposits, said Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB. Banks set their expectations for easing the Central Bank's policy in advance in terms of deposits, so the market is gradually shifting towards short products, and consumers choose them also because of greater flexibility - if necessary, they can withdraw money faster without losing interest.
The interest in such instruments is understandable: they provide profitability "here and now" and allow you to quickly respond to market changes, the press service of Novik Bank emphasized. Consumers retain the ability to quickly redistribute funds between different instruments.
How short deposits affect mortgage rates
Credit institutions do not have a systemic liquidity deficit, but they currently lack long-term resources, said Nikita Kulagin, head of Sovcombank's Macroeconomic Analysis Department. This limits the possibilities for active long-term lending.
The shift towards short deposits directly affects the cost of loans, said Evgeny Romanov from Expert RA. This funding structure limits banks in "long-term" liabilities and slows down the reduction in interest rates. First of all, this applies to mortgages, where the term is calculated for decades.
The shortage of "long money" remains a key problem of the market, Denis Astafyev, the founder of SharesPro, agreed. When the basis of liabilities is deposits for three months, it is difficult for credit institutions to finance long—term products: there is a risk of a deadline gap, which puts pressure on profitability.
As a result, mortgages are getting cheaper slowly: according to Dom.Russian Federation", the rates for market programs are kept at about 20% per annum, which is 5 percentage points higher than the key level. Banks reduce the cost of loans with a delay, and they do it gradually, Denis Astafyev emphasized.
The high proportion of short deposits forces financial organizations to act more cautiously, the Novikom press service also noted. Interest rates on loans are decreasing, but not as fast as the key one, since they take into account the cost of resources over a long horizon and the risks associated with their shortage.
At the same time, it is now more difficult for banks to place long money: the popularity of mortgages is falling, so it is more profitable to allocate funds to issue shorter loans, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Mortgage issuance volumes may decrease against the background of stricter conditions for preferential programs.
Are short deposits profitable?
Banks deliberately offer higher returns for short periods of time in order not to lock in expensive resources for a long time, Denis Astafyev noted. Therefore, such deposits really look more profitable for customers.
Income on deposits for a period of three to 12 months is now about 13.6% at the Central Bank's rate of 16%, that is, the gap reached about 2.5 percentage points. According to Finuslug, about 97% of funds are returned to banks after deposits are closed.
As long as the interest rates on short deposits remain high, depositors do not lose income, Denis Astafyev noted. However, with a faster reduction in the key rate, the situation will change: those who have not fixed profitability for a long time may face a drop in rates and lose some of their potential profits. If the key rate drops to 12% by the end of the year, the return on deposits may already be below 10%.
The bias in favor of short deposits will continue as long as the cycle of monetary policy easing continues, said Dmitry Gritskevich from the PSB. A return to the classical model, when long deposits become more profitable, is possible only with expectations of future key growth. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, the rate will return to the range of 7.5–8.5% only in 2028.
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